Capital Preservation: A BrownBagBets Way of Betting

BrownBagBets

Process in Public · Diagnostic Record, Not Forecast

January 12, 2026

The edge today remains restraint while documenting how structure behaves under pressure.

Pattern Literacy Canon — Volume I

The foundational PDF that explains how BrownBagBets reads markets. Free, quiet, and sharp.

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System Note

BrownBagBets is a diagnostic record, not a prediction feed. Each Daily Card documents decision process, risk posture, and pattern interpretation in real time — including losses, drawdowns, and restraint. This page is meant to be studied, not followed.

If you're new here: this isn't a picks page, and it isn't meant to be consumed emotionally. The Daily Card documents how the BrownBagBets team interprets sports betting through the lens of market behavior (line movement), risk management, and executing a repeatable process transparently — including losses, drawdowns, and restraint. Some readers check the Card daily; others read selectively to understand how Pattern Literacy shows up under pressure. If you're looking for guarantees or certainty, this won't be useful. If you're here to study decision quality and learn the art of sports betting, you're in the right place.

Yesterday → Today
Yesterday’s volatility turned lessons into clarity — both wins and losses revealed how conviction behaves under stress.

Plain Insight
Conviction is like water pressure: steady flow drives progress, but too much bursts the pipe. In sports betting, that pressure builds through overconfidence — the belief that effort can control outcome. It can’t. Structure is the regulator.

Today’s Frame
Today’s record examines how small, deliberate positions sustain signal and composure during quieter markets.

/start-here — how to read the system and the patterns beneath performance

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After Yesterday’s Results

Bankroll: 89.9%

NFL Wild Card Round

Bills at Jaguars — Jaguars ML -117 (4%) — LOSS

Bills at Jaguars — Kincaid o42.5 Rec Yds -113 (2%) — LOSS

Bills at Jaguars — Kincaid Anytime TD +250 (2%) — WIN

49ers at Eagles — Barkley o18.5 Carries -122 (2%) — WIN

49ers at Eagles — Eagles -6 -105 (3%) — LOSS

Chargers at Patriots — Chargers +3.5 -108 (3%) — LOSS

Chargers at Patriots — Under 46 -110 (3%) — WIN

NCAA Basketball

Memphis at FAU — FAU ML -130 (3%) — WIN

Cincinnati at UCF — UCF -3 -110 (4%) — LOSS

Cincinnati at UCF — Under 151.5 (4%) — WIN

NHL

Penguins at Bruins — Bruins ML -102 (3%) — WIN

Blue Jackets at Mammoth — Mammoth ML -180 (2%) — LOSS

Golden Knights at Sharks — Sharks ML +125 (3%) — LOSS

NBA

Knicks at Blazers — Blazers +4.5 -105 (3%) — LOSS

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2026 Performance Dashboard · Reconciled Through January 12

Metrics shown are descriptive of process — not predictive of outcomes.

Each metric below reflects the current state of process health, market climate, and structural accuracy.

Bankroll89.9%

Record52–54–1

ROI (MTD)-2.1%

Total Plays MTD107

Average Stake3.1%

Loyalty Value (Caesars Tier Credits)~1,659 credits

Market ClimateContained — low volatility

System HealthStable

Risk TemperatureNeutral

Pattern Walk Record10–5

Market Climate reflects current betting conditions — calm, volatile, or transitional. System Health describes how the process is functioning — stable, under review, or adaptive. Risk Temperature measures how much short-term variance the system allows to preserve long-term signal.

Pattern Walk refers to system-aligned plays verified by pattern criteria. The record tracks interpretation accuracy, not prediction.

This dashboard is diagnostic, not predictive. Records are exact; the goal remains preservation, signal capture, and disciplined iteration.

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Today’s Plays · January 12, 2026

NFL Wild Card Playoffs

Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers — Woody Marks over 15.5 Total Carries -125 (4%)

*** Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers — Under 38.5 -118 (4%)

*** Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers — Steelers ML +140 (2%)

Pattern Walk items reflect criteria discussed in the NFL application walkthrough: pattern-walk-nfl

NHL

Seattle Kraken at New York Rangers — Kraken ML +120 (3%)

Carolina Hurricanes at Detroit Red Wings — Red Wings ML +126 (3%)

Vancouver Canucks at Montreal Canadiens — Canadiens -1.5 +145 (3%)

NCAA Basketball

*** Southern at Bethune-Cookman — Bethune-Cookman ML -130 (4%)

Southern at Bethune-Cookman — Over 150.5 -115 (4%)

Navy at American — Navy ML -115 (3%)

*** Incarnate Word at Stephen F. Austin — Over 138.5 -120 (4%)

Delaware State at Howard — Howard -9.5 -120 (3%)

*** New Orleans at Southeastern Louisiana — New Orleans ML -110 (4%)

NBA

Utah Jazz at Cleveland Cavaliers — Sam Merrill over 11.5 Points -118 (2%)

Boston Celtics at Indiana Pacers — Payton Pritchard over 22.5 Points -117 (2%)

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Pattern Literacy

Asterisks indicate Pattern Walk compliance at the time of entry. They reflect structural alignment — not conviction.

/pattern-walk — the worldview that defines how structure is read, not forecasted.