BrownBagBets Performance Ledger
The record is the record. All of it.
BrownBagBets publishes its performance record as a permanent accounting and research document. Completed monthly cycles, sport classifications, separately governed capital strategies and material research evidence remain visible whether they strengthen the process or challenge it.
September 2026 · Completed Cycle
106%
Closing standardized bankroll
September closed profitably. October starts over at 100%.
The completed month produced 99 wins, 72 losses and a 106% closing standardized bankroll. BrownBagBets records the 6% overage as a completed distribution rather than carrying a larger base into October.
That reset is intentional. A profitable prior month does not create permission for more risk in the next one. October must earn its own participation decision by decision.
| September sport | Record | Decisions | Win rate | Accounting note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 47-33 | 80 | 58.8% | Regular-season operating record |
| NCAA Football | 20-14 | 34 | 58.8% | Prospective football operation |
| Soccer | 11-3 | 14 | 78.6% | Aggregate only; EPL/UCL split not certified |
| NFL | 19-20 | 39 | 48.7% | Prospective football operation |
| NHL | 2-2 | 4 | 50.0% | Small September sample |
| SEPTEMBER TOTAL | 99-72 | 171 | 57.9% | 106% closing bankroll |
Operating evidence register
Completed evidence stays closed. Active evidence stays labeled active.
The ledger now separates permanent accounting from prospective research samples. The purpose is to let evidence accumulate without turning an early result into a larger claim than the data can support.
2026 MLB Regular Season
96-69
This is the certified regular-season analytical universe used to inform postseason qualification, expression, price and stack discipline.
2026 MLB Postseason
5-1
Useful early evidence, not a postseason conclusion. October operating rules remain subject to price, manager-hook risk, bullpen access and series context.
NFL Weekly Operation
6-7
Pushes are excluded from the prospective graded sample. The result informs process review without becoming a permanent claim about the framework.
NCAAF Weekly Operation
6-4
The weekly sample remains part of a developing prospective operating record. No broader predictive conclusion is implied.
Accounting boundary
Prospective research samples are not a second governing ledger.
The 5-1 MLB postseason opening slate, 6-7 NFL week and 6-4 NCAAF slate are shown as operating evidence because they answer a different question: how the current prospective systems are behaving. They are not added again to the 1,900-position governing portfolio unless and until the underlying official positions belong in that accounting set.
Monthly cycle accounting
Nine completed cycles. Eight consecutive profitable closes.
Every calendar month begins from a standardized 100% bankroll. When a completed cycle closes above 100%, BrownBagBets recommends removing the profitable overage and beginning the next cycle again from 100%.
January remains the completed 42% losing cycle. February through September are eight consecutive completed profitable cycles. Their distribution percentages are added as independent monthly overages, not presented as a compounded investment return.
January 2026
42%
133-148-1
February 2026
107%
77-78-2
March 2026
134%
163-148-7
April 2026
114%
151-126-1
May 2026
145%
138-112-1
June 2026
124%
97-77-3
July 2026
114%
86-76-1
August 2026
135%
63-40
September 2026 · Completed
106%
99-72
| Cycle | Record | Positions | Bankroll | Distribution | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 133-148-1 | 282 | 42% | — | Completed |
| February | 77-78-2 | 157 | 107% | +7% | Completed |
| March | 163-148-7 | 318 | 134% | +34% | Completed |
| April | 151-126-1 | 278 | 114% | +14% | Completed |
| May | 138-112-1 | 251 | 145% | +45% | Completed |
| June | 97-77-3 | 177 | 124% | +24% | Completed |
| July | 86-76-1 | 163 | 114% | +14% | Completed |
| August | 63-40 | 103 | 135% | +35% | Completed |
| September | 99-72 | 171 | 106% | +6% | Completed |
| 2026 THROUGH SEPTEMBER | 1,007-877-16 | 1,900 | Separate monthly cycles | 179 completed percentage points | Reconciled |
Record integrity
Monthly totals reconcile exactly.
The nine completed monthly cycles sum to 1,007-877-16 across 1,900 official settled positions.
Capital interpretation
179 percentage points is not a compounded return.
The completed distributions are +7%, +34%, +14%, +45%, +24%, +14%, +35% and +6%. Each percentage belongs to a separate monthly cycle that began from its own 100% baseline.
Illustrative $10,000 monthly bankroll
What the recurring percentage framework looks like in dollars.
The standardized monthly bankroll is a risk ceiling and allocation reference, not money placed at risk all at once. Using $10,000 as an illustration, 1% equals $100, 2% equals $200 and 3% equals $300.
$17,900
If each completed monthly cycle uses the same illustrative $10,000 standardized starting bankroll, the eight completed profitable distributions translate to $17,900 removed from the betting environment.
The $17,900 does not mean $10,000 compounded into $27,900. It represents eight independently reset monthly cycles whose completed distribution equivalents add to $17,900.
$19,000+
Under an illustrative program that awards 10 tier credits for every $100 wagered and assigns an illustrative $1 value to each credit, the 1,900-position record produces the following minimum example if every settled position had been only 1% of a $10,000 standardized bankroll.
This is a deliberately conservative hypothetical illustration, not a claim of actual sportsbook benefits earned. Real earning rules, redemption values, limits and availability vary by operator.
Platform benefits remain economically separate from wagering profit and are never included in bankroll performance.
Special Opportunity Portfolios
Some markets deserve their own capital architecture.
The standardized monthly cycle governs the recurring BrownBagBets operating portfolio. Finite opportunities can use a separate committed capital base, reserve structure and timeline when the market environment is materially different.
The $10,000 World Cup Portfolio
BrownBagBets publicly committed a defined $10,000 tournament bankroll before kickoff, deployed 65% into ten opening futures and deliberately held 35% in reserve.
+57.9%
$10,000 → $15,786.67
The ten published opening futures settled 6-4. The winning positions produced $5,786.67 of net profit while the original $3,500 reserve remained part of the committed capital structure.
| Opening future | Allocation | Stake | Price | Result | Net P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium · Reach Quarterfinals | 14% | $1,400 | +150 | Win | +$2,100.00 |
| Mexico · Win Group A | 8% | $800 | +110 | Win | +$880.00 |
| Japan · Win Group F | 7% | $700 | +250 | Loss | −$700.00 |
| Colombia · Win Group K | 7% | $700 | +240 | Win | +$1,680.00 |
| Switzerland · Win Group B | 7% | $700 | −105 | Win | +$666.67 |
| Morocco · Reach Quarterfinals | 6% | $600 | +350 | Win | +$2,100.00 |
| Netherlands · Reach Semifinals | 5% | $500 | +450 | Loss | −$500.00 |
| Mexico · Reach Quarterfinals | 4% | $400 | +350 | Loss | −$400.00 |
| Japan · Reach Quarterfinals | 4% | $400 | +400 | Loss | −$400.00 |
| USA · Win Group D | 3% | $300 | +120 | Win | +$360.00 |
| OPENING FUTURES BOOK | 65% | $6,500 | — | 6-4 | +$5,786.67 |
Sport and competition accounting
The classification view reconciles to the same governing portfolio.
Sport and competition records are research-accountability subsets of the governing portfolio. They show where official decisions occurred. They do not independently describe financial return because raw W-L records omit price and percentage allocation.
| Sport / competition | 2026 record | Decisions | Accounting context |
|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 327-258-2 | 587 | League classification through September |
| NCAAB | 223-195-4 | 422 | Historical basketball sample |
| NBA | 171-152-1 | 324 | Historical basketball sample |
| NHL | 73-82-6 | 161 | Includes September 2-2 |
| World Cup | 66-58-1 | 125 | Distinct tournament environment |
| NFL | 35-33 | 68 | Includes September 19-20 |
| EPL | 34-32-1 | 67 | Certified classification through August |
| NCAAF / CFB | 26-20 | 46 | Includes September 20-14 |
| UEFA Champions League | 18-20-1 | 39 | Certified classification through August |
| September soccer · league split unresolved | 11-3 | 14 | Aggregate certified; EPL/UCL split intentionally not inferred |
| Other · January | 14-20 | 34 | Historical classification |
| World Baseball Classic | 4-1 | 5 | Distinct tournament environment |
| EFL / FA Cup | 3-2 | 5 | Distinct cup environment |
| Home Run Derby | 0-1 | 1 | Distinct event |
| Unresolved historical classification | 2-0 | 2 | Sport intentionally unassigned |
| 2026 TOTAL | 1,007-877-16 | 1,900 | Fully reconciled |
September soccer
Aggregate evidence is preserved without inventing the league split.
September soccer is certified at 11-3, but the available reconciliation does not support assigning those 14 decisions between EPL and UEFA Champions League. The aggregate therefore remains visible as its own line until source-level classification earns a cleaner split.
Why environments stay separate
Cleaner accounting should not erase context.
World Cup, World Baseball Classic, EFL / FA Cup and Home Run Derby remain distinct from ordinary league classifications because the market structure and decision environment are different.
2026 MLB regular-season research closeout
A completed season becomes operating evidence, not a victory lap.
The certified analytical universe contains 165 graded MLB regular-season wagers: 96 wins, 69 losses and a 58.2% hit rate.
The value of the closeout is not the headline percentage by itself. The full-season record now gives BrownBagBets stronger evidence about market expression, price, stack independence, manager-hook risk and which forms of evidence deserve a higher proof threshold in October.
Moneyline
56-34
The largest validated market family. Team-level edge translated more cleanly without adding a margin requirement.
Pitcher Props
13-8
A viable specialized lane when pitcher condition, matchup and workload map directly to the expression.
Run Line
12-12
A team edge did not automatically justify adding the extra requirement of margin.
Batter Props
5-8
The most fragile validated lane. Individual-event dependency raises the standard for postseason participation.
F5 Sides
4-3
Useful when the thesis is specifically about the starting-pitcher window, but the sample remains small.
Totals & Team Totals
6-4
Game totals finished 3-1, team totals 2-3 and F5 totals 1-0. The component samples remain too small for broad standalone claims.
| Market family | Plays | Record | Hit rate | Current interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | 90 | 56-34 | 62.2% | Core team-level expression |
| Run Line | 24 | 12-12 | 50.0% | Margin must be separately earned |
| Pitcher Props | 21 | 13-8 | 61.9% | Live specialized lane |
| Batter Props | 13 | 5-8 | 38.5% | Higher proof standard |
| F5 Sides | 7 | 4-3 | 57.1% | Starter-isolation use case |
| Game Totals | 4 | 3-1 | 75.0% | Small sample |
| Team Totals | 5 | 2-3 | 40.0% | Mixed small sample |
| F5 Totals | 1 | 1-0 | 100% | One observation only |
| REGULAR-SEASON ANALYTICAL UNIVERSE | 165 | 96-69 | 58.2% | Completed |
What the full season supports
Shortest causal path. Independent mechanisms. Price as a gate.
- Use the market that most directly captures the mechanism.
- Do not add margin merely because the team thesis is strong.
- Keep pitcher props live, while separately modeling postseason manager-hook risk.
- Treat premium favorite prices as a higher approval threshold.
- Count independent causal mechanisms, not multiple statistics describing one reason.
Data integrity
The audit preserves missing evidence instead of reconstructing it after the result.
- 165 graded win/loss wagers in the final analytical universe.
- 154 plays have core-stack coverage.
- 9 source-gap plays remain intentionally untagged.
- 2 context-only cases are preserved without inflating the core indicator stack.
- Market-family records are descriptive evidence, not isolated causal experiments.
Capital methodology
One decision system. More than one valid capital structure.
BrownBagBets distinguishes between recurring monthly operating cycles, finite Special Opportunity Portfolios and prospective research registers. Each exists for a different reason and therefore has a different accounting boundary.
CORE 01
Monthly cycle begins at 100%
Recurring sports wagering operates from a standardized monthly bankroll.
CORE 02
Positions receive percentage allocation
Evidence, price, uncertainty and correlation govern how much capital participates.
CORE 03
Profitable overage is removed
Completed monthly profits leave the betting environment before the next standardized cycle.
RESEARCH 01
TRACK is not BET
A qualified case can remain under observation without receiving capital permission.
RESEARCH 02
Changed evidence can change status
A conclusion may change when material evidence or price changes. No meaningful change preserves the prior conclusion.
SPECIAL 01
Finite opportunities close separately
Special portfolio return is reported on committed capital without being blended into monthly distribution accounting.
Understanding the 179%
Eight completed monthly distributions, added together.
The completed profitable monthly cycles distributed +7%, +34%, +14%, +45%, +24%, +14%, +35% and +6%. Those eight percentages add to 179 percentage points. Because each month resets to its own 100% starting baseline, BrownBagBets does not present 179% as a compounded return.
The World Cup +57.9% is intentionally excluded because it belongs to a separate dedicated capital portfolio rather than the standardized monthly distribution system.
Historical reconciliation protocol
Transparency means correcting the record without pretending uncertainty never existed.
Historical records can contain incomplete classifications, older summary conventions or values that require reconciliation against the governing portfolio. BrownBagBets preserves those distinctions rather than silently forcing the past into a cleaner story.
RULE 01
Completed results control
Once a monthly cycle is fully reconciled, the completed record supersedes earlier interim snapshots for governing summary purposes.
RULE 02
Unknown stays unknown
Unresolved sport or league classifications remain visibly unresolved rather than being assigned without adequate evidence.
RULE 03
No double counting
A special capital-accounting view or prospective research sample does not create a second set of official positions.
January reconciliation
Classification corrections preserved
Two previously unclassified January wins are assigned to NCAAB and two previously unclassified January losses are assigned to NBA under the approved historical reconciliation.
February reconciliation
Historical soccer classification normalized
La Liga was removed as a standalone historical classification. Remaining historical soccer results were divided as evenly as mathematically possible between EPL and UEFA Champions League under the approved reconciliation.
Ledger definitions
Precision matters because similar numbers answer different questions.
- Governing portfolio record
- The complete reconciled win-loss-push record across official settled positions.
- Sport / competition record
- A research-accountability subset of the governing portfolio. It does not independently describe bankroll return.
- Standardized monthly bankroll
- The recurring monthly operating fund expressed as 100% at the beginning of each cycle.
- Closing bankroll
- The standardized monthly bankroll condition after the final position in a completed cycle has settled.
- Allocation
- The percentage of the relevant bankroll assigned to an official position.
- Distribution
- Completed profitable monthly overage above 100% recommended for removal from the betting environment after the cycle closes.
- Cumulative completed distributions
- Monthly distribution percentages added across independently reset cycles. This is not a compounded return.
- Win rate
- Wins divided by wins plus losses. Pushes are excluded from the denominator.
- Prospective research sample
- A forward-looking sample produced under the current operating process and preserved separately from retrospective or differently scoped historical evidence.
- Completed tracked period
- A research period whose stated analytical universe has been closed, reconciled and is no longer receiving new regular-period observations.
- Special Opportunity Portfolio
- A finite, separately defined capital strategy tied to an unusual event or market structure with its own committed bankroll, deployment plan, reserve rules and final accounting.
- Committed capital
- The full capital base assigned to a special opportunity, including both deployed and intentionally reserved capital.
- Reserve capital
- Capital assigned to a strategy but intentionally left undeployed until predefined evidence or permission conditions are met.
- Special portfolio return
- Net profit or loss divided by the original committed special-opportunity capital base.
- Historical reconciliation
- An approved correction or classification decision used to keep historical accounting internally consistent while preserving the limitations of the underlying evidence.
- Illustrative loyalty value
- A hypothetical sportsbook-platform benefit estimate shown separately from wagering performance and dependent on assumed earning and redemption rules.
What the ledger currently establishes
The record documents what happened.
- BrownBagBets is 1,007-877-16 across 1,900 official settled positions through September 30.
- September completed 99-72 across 171 settled positions and closed the standardized bankroll at 106%.
- February through September are eight consecutive completed profitable monthly cycles.
- Completed monthly distributions total 179 percentage points across independent reset cycles.
- The certified 2026 MLB regular-season analytical universe finished 96-69 across 165 graded wagers.
- The published 2026 World Cup $10,000 opening futures portfolio closed at a +57.9% return on committed capital.
- Price and percentage allocation materially affect financial outcomes.
What the ledger does not establish
Historical evidence is not future permission.
- Past performance does not guarantee future results.
- A 57.9% September win rate does not mean September produced a 57.9% financial return.
- The 179 percentage-point distribution figure is not a compounded return.
- The World Cup +57.9% special portfolio return is not added to the monthly 179%.
- The MLB postseason 5-1 opening slate is too early to support a mature postseason conclusion.
- The latest NFL and NCAAF prospective samples do not establish permanent framework performance.
- Market-family and indicator records are descriptive research evidence, not standalone causal proof.
- Illustrative sportsbook loyalty benefits are not wagering profit.
Performance Ledger FAQ
Audit the record before interpreting it.
What is the official BrownBagBets 2026 record through September 30?
What was the final September record?
Is September the eighth consecutive profitable completed month?
What does the 179% completed distribution figure mean?
What do the completed monthly distributions equal using a $10,000 standardized bankroll?
What is the completed 2026 MLB regular-season research record?
Why is the MLB regular-season 96-69 sample different from the 2026 MLB classification record?
What is the current MLB postseason evidence state?
Why is September soccer shown as an aggregate?
What happened with the 2026 World Cup Special Opportunity Portfolio?
Why isn't the World Cup +57.9% added to the 179% monthly distribution figure?
How does the sportsbook loyalty illustration work with 1,900 settled positions?
Why can February be profitable with a 77-78-2 record?
Responsible wagering
A disciplined process still involves real financial risk.
Past results do not guarantee future performance. BrownBagBets treats bankroll control, selective participation, reserve capital and the ability to decline exposure as essential parts of the decision process.