Pattern Walk Applied - NFL Wild Card Round - Houston Texans @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Pattern Walk Applied — HOU @ PIT
This is a real-time demonstration of how market structure — not opinion — narrows decision-making.
Why This Example Matters
This Wild Card game is not interesting because of the teams. It is interesting because it is a high-liquidity, prime-time market where information is efficiently expressed.
Pattern Walk works best when the market is deep enough to speak clearly — and disciplined bettors learn more from what gets disqualified than what gets played.
Step 1 — Market Context
Step 2 — Opening Line Behavior
Step 3 — Price vs Open
Spread: Worse than open (lost +3.5)
Total: Improved for under bettors
Moneyline: Significantly strengthened
Step 4 — Key Number Interaction
Defended. No cross. No reversion.
Neutral-positive
Crossed and held below.
Strong conviction
Step 5 — Bets vs Money
Step 6 — Context Filters
Weather: 31°F, moderate wind
Matchup: PIT defense > offense; HOU inconsistent away
Final Decisions
Key number crossed, strong money differential, no late resistance.
Strongest sharp signal with improving price quality.
Aligned but degraded. Upgrade only if +3.5 reappears.
Houston spread, Houston ML, Over. Narrative markets without structural support.
What You Should Do Differently
Notice how no single data point created permission. The edge came from convergence, and restraint came from disqualification.
Pattern Walk is not about finding more bets. It is about finding fewer, cleaner decisions.
Learn the worldview at /pattern-walk.
