Disciplined Decision Making Yields A 9 Win Night

BrownBagBets

Process in Public · Diagnostic Record, Not Forecast

January 13, 2026 · Updated 3:00 PM ET

Getting back to even does not change the work.

Context matters
The first half of January has not been smooth. We’ve spent the better part of the month climbing out of early drawdown, absorbing variance, and staying disciplined when the easy reaction would have been to change behavior.

Sitting at a 100% bankroll after 13 days does not mean the work is finished. It means the process held. It means the same approach that has produced profitable years in 2024 and 2025 is still intact, even when January tested patience early.

At BrownBagBets, we believe this style of decision-making — measured risk, documented process, and emotional restraint — can produce variable but repeatable passive income over time. Not through prediction. Not through volume for its own sake. But through structure, pricing discipline, and letting edges compound quietly.

Why tonight matters
Tonight’s slate is one of the larger cards we’ve seen this month. That doesn’t make it exciting — it makes it important. A strong night across this number of plays would position January as another winning month and set the tone for getting 2026 on the same trajectory that defined the past two years.

Whether outcomes cooperate or not, the obligation remains the same: execute cleanly, size appropriately, and record honestly.

/start-here — how to read this project and what it is not

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After Yesterday’s Results

Bankroll: 100.0%

NFL Wild Card Playoffs

Texans at Steelers — Woody Marks o15.5 Carries (4%) — WIN

*** Texans at Steelers — Under 38.5 (4%) — WIN

*** Texans at Steelers — Steelers ML (2%) — LOSS

NHL

Kraken at Rangers — Kraken ML (3%) — WIN

Hurricanes at Red Wings — Red Wings ML (3%) — WIN

Canucks at Canadiens — Canadiens -1.5 (3%) — WIN

NCAA Basketball

*** Southern at Bethune-Cookman — ML (4%) — LOSS

Southern at Bethune-Cookman — Over 150.5 (4%) — LOSS

Navy at American — Navy ML (3%) — LOSS

*** Incarnate Word at SFA — Over 138.5 (4%) — LOSS

Delaware State at Howard — Howard -9.5 (3%) — WIN

*** New Orleans at SE Louisiana — ML (4%) — WIN

NBA

Jazz at Cavaliers — Sam Merrill o11.5 Pts (2%) — WIN

Celtics at Pacers — Pritchard o22.5 Pts (2%) — WIN

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2026 Performance Dashboard · MTD Through January 12

Bankroll100.0%

Record61–59–1

ROI (MTD)0.0%

Total Plays MTD121

Average Stake~3%

Process StatusContained

Market PhaseSelective

Risk TemperatureNeutral

Pattern Walk Record12–8

By League (MTD)

NFL3–3

CFB3–2

NCAAB28–28–1

NBA5–6

NHL14–12

By Market (MTD)

Moneyline38–35

Spread16–16

Totals18–12

Props5–6

By Stake Band (MTD)

2%13–9

3%30–31

4%18–19

This dashboard is diagnostic, not predictive.

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Today’s Plays · January 13, 2026

NCAA Basketball

Central Michigan at Miami (OH) — Over 154.5 (4%)

Ohio at Toledo — Toledo ML -125 (2%)

Wisconsin at Minnesota — Minnesota +2 -118 (2%)

UConn at Seton Hall — Seton Hall +6.5 -115 (2%)

Bradley at Evansville — Evansville +6.5 -104 (2%)

*** Western Illinois at Eastern Illinois — Eastern Illinois -7 -115 (4%)

Florida State at Syracuse — Syracuse -8.5 -110 (2%)

Grand Canyon at New Mexico — Under 144.5 -110 (3%)

*** Baylor at Oklahoma State — Oklahoma State ML -105 (5%)

NHL

Lightning at Penguins — Under 6.5 -125 (2%)

Canadiens at Capitals — Canadiens ML +136 (3%)

Red Wings at Bruins — Red Wings ML +110 (3%)

Islanders at Jets — Islanders ML +115 (3%)

Maple Leafs at Mammoth — Mammoth ML -145 (2%)

NBA

Suns at Heat — Suns +1.5 -118 (2%)

Nuggets at Pelicans — Nuggets -1.5 -117 (2%)

Timberwolves at Bucks — Bucks ML -140 (2%)

Spurs at Thunder — Thunder -8.5 -115 (2%)

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Pattern Literacy

Asterisks indicate Pattern Walk compliance at the time of entry. They reflect structural alignment — not certainty.

/pattern-walk