New Day - Full Card

BrownBagBets

Process in Public · Diagnostic Record, Not Forecast

January 22, 2026 · 12:45 PM ET

One result can expose more than a full slate.

Pattern Literacy Canon — Volume I

The foundational PDF that explains how BrownBagBets reads markets. Free, quiet, and sharp.

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Yesterday, distilled
Yesterday’s record came down to a single decision. One play, sized far larger than anything else on the board, and it missed. When risk is concentrated, the feedback is immediate and unavoidable.

What it clarified
This wasn’t a lesson about finding games — it was a lesson about structure. Edge and confidence don’t matter if wager sizing drifts out of alignment. That distinction is easy to forget during volatile stretches, which is precisely why days like this are documented in full.

How today responds
Today’s card reflects recalibration, not retreat. Exposure is spread across markets, stakes are normalized, and the focus returns to letting volume — not conviction — do the work over time.

/start-here — how to read this record when the lesson matters more than the result

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After Yesterday’s Results

Bankroll: 60.3%

NCAA Basketball

Rhode Island at Richmond — Richmond ML -145 (56.8%) — LOSS

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2026 Performance Dashboard · MTD Through January 20

Bankroll60.3%

Record98–110–1

ROI (MTD)-39.7%

Total Plays209

Average Stake~3.8%

Risk TemperatureCooling

By League (MTD)

NFL7–8

CFB3–3

NCAAB46–53–1

NBA9–10

NHL23–22

By Market (MTD)

Moneyline52–58

Spread32–36

Totals25–18

Props8–10

By Stake Band (MTD)

2%20–16

3%41–51

4%24–34

5%8–9

7%0–1

This dashboard is diagnostic, not predictive. Pattern Walk marks structural alignment, not outcome certainty.

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Today’s Plays · January 22, 2026

NCAA Basketball

Balanced exposure · re-established sizing

Florida Gulf Coast at Austin Peay — Austin Peay ML -185 (5%)

UNC Wilmington at William & Mary — William & Mary ML -120 (5%)

Wisconsin at Penn State — Wisconsin -4 -125 (5%)

Long Beach State at Cal State Fullerton — Over 159.5 -115 (5%)

NHL

Single-game hockey exposure

Vegas Golden Knights at Boston Bruins — Bruins ML +120 (3%)

NBA

Player prop exposure only

Rockets at 76ers — Joel Embiid o25.5 Points -110 (3%)

Rockets at 76ers — Amen Thompson o11.5 Rebounds + Assists -135 (3%)

Bulls at Timberwolves — Julius Randle o11.5 Rebounds + Assists (3%)

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Pattern Literacy

Asterisks indicate Pattern Walk compliance at time of entry.

/pattern-walk