Process Holds When Noise Fades

BrownBagBets

Process in Public · Diagnostic Record, Not Forecast

January 23, 2026 · 10:30 AM ET

The longer view still matters.

Pattern Literacy Canon — Volume I

The foundational PDF that explains how BrownBagBets reads markets. Free, quiet, and sharp.

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Context before conclusions
There are moments in a season when the record alone cannot explain the work. This is one of them.

A reader arriving here for the first time today—especially if their reference point begins in mid-November—could reasonably misunderstand what BrownBagBets is, or why it has earned a daily audience. Recent weeks have been uneven. Variance has been loud. The surface results, taken out of context, do not tell the full story.

The longer view
In 2025, this process closed eight of twelve months positive, not by chasing form or leaning into confidence, but by repeatedly doing the same quiet work: tracking how numbers move, when they move, and—more importantly—when they don’t hold.

The Pattern Walk exists for that reason. It is not a strategy for winning tonight. It is a framework for recognizing when markets are stable, when they are deceptive, and when standing down is the correct action.

What changed last night
Last night resembled a familiar market rhythm. A 7–1 result emerged not from urgency, but from patience. January now sits at 68.4% bankroll, with meaningful runway remaining and no need to accelerate.

For newer readers
False steam is active. Early movement that reverses quickly is not strength; it is rejection. Those reversals often carry more information than the initial move itself.

/start-here — begin with the framework before the plays

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After Yesterday’s Results

Bankroll: 68.4%

NCAA Basketball

Florida Gulf Coast at Austin Peay — Austin Peay ML -185 (5%) — WIN

UNC Wilmington at William & Mary — William & Mary ML -120 (5%) — WIN

Wisconsin at Penn State — Wisconsin -4 -125 (5%) — WIN

Long Beach State at Cal State Fullerton — Over 159.5 -115 (5%) — LOSS

NHL

Vegas Golden Knights at Boston Bruins — Bruins ML +120 (3%) — WIN

NBA

Rockets at 76ers — Embiid o25.5 Points -110 (3%) — WIN

Rockets at 76ers — Amen Thompson o11.5 Rebounds + Assists -135 (3%) — WIN

Bulls at Timberwolves — Julius Randle o11.5 Rebounds + Assists (3%) — WIN

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2026 Performance Dashboard · MTD Through January 22

Bankroll68.4%

Record105–111–1

ROI (MTD)-31.6%

Total Plays217

Average Stake~3.8%

Risk TemperatureCooling

By League (MTD)

NFL7–8

CFB3–3

NCAAB49–54–1

NBA12–10

NHL24–22

By Market (MTD)

Moneyline55–58

Spread33–36

Totals25–19

Props11–10

By Stake Band (MTD)

2%20–16

3%45–51

4%24–34

5%11–10

7%0–1

This dashboard is diagnostic, not predictive. Pattern Walk marks structural alignment, not outcome certainty.

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Today’s Plays · January 23, 2026 · Final Card

NCAA Basketball

Expanded late slate · balanced exposure

Florida Gulf Coast at Lipscomb — Lipscomb -5 -140 (4%)

#24 St. Louis at St. Bonaventure — St. Bonaventure +9 -120 (3%)

Massachusetts at Buffalo — Buffalo +2.5 -115 (5%)

High Point at Radford — Radford +7.5 -105 (4%)

Tulane at Charlotte — Charlotte ML -160 (4%)

NHL

Single-game exposure

Vegas Golden Knights at Toronto Maple Leafs — Maple Leafs ML +100 (3%)

NBA

Player prop positions only

Suns at Hawks — Dyson Daniels o11.5 Rebounds + Assists -135 (3%)

Pelicans at Grizzlies — Jock Landale o20.5 Points + Rebounds -135 (3%)

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Pattern Literacy

Asterisks indicate Pattern Walk compliance at time of entry.

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