Vegas Lights, Cold Results, and the Discipline to Keep Going

BrownBagBets

Process in Public · Diagnostic Record, Not Forecast

January 18, 2026 · 11:00 AM ET

The math doesn’t care where you are or how good the day was supposed to be.

Pattern Literacy Canon — Volume I

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Yesterday, honestly
Yesterday hurt. From the first EPL kickoff to the final whistle, the wins simply didn’t arrive. Losing every soccer position in the morning is a fast way to put a day on its heels, and the rest of the card never found its footing.

Where we were while it happened
The BrownBagBets team is in Las Vegas this week for our annual January leadership retreat. We escaped the polar vortex gripping our home offices back east, but the plays themselves were ice cold. The sportsbook at Caesars, though, was electric — packed rooms, loud opinions, and that unmistakable energy that only exists during playoff football.

The moment that captured the day
The overtime classic in Denver between the Bills and Broncos was everything sports betting makes you feel at once. Groans, cheers, strangers hugging and strangers arguing — all of it unfolding in real time. We were on the right side of parts of it, and painfully wrong on others. That’s not an excuse. It’s context.

What matters now
Days like yesterday are why this record exists. Not to inspire confidence, but to document reality. The math doesn’t bend because the setting was perfect or the effort was real. The only option is to log it cleanly, study it honestly, and continue without flinching.

/start-here — how to read this record and what it asks of you

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After Yesterday’s Results

Bankroll: 53.4%

English Premier League

Fulham ML (1%) — LOSS

Fulham Over 2.5 (2%) — LOSS

Tottenham ML (3%) — LOSS

Under 2.5 Palace/Sunderland (2%) — LOSS

Liverpool ML + BTTS (3%) — LOSS

Arsenal -1.5 (3%) — LOSS

NFL Divisional Round

*** Broncos ML (5%) — WIN

Over 46 Bills/Broncos (3%) — WIN

RJ Harvey o13.5 Rush Att (3%) — LOSS

*** Under 44.5 49ers/Seahawks (4%) — LOSS

49ers +7.5 (3%) — LOSS

Juszczyk o1.5 Receptions (3%) — LOSS

NCAA Basketball

*** Virginia Tech -4.5 (3%) — WIN

*** Virginia ML (3%) — WIN

Wisconsin -14.5 (2%) — LOSS

*** Dartmouth ML (3%) — LOSS

*** Nebraska -3.5 (4%) — WIN

*** UNC -4.5 (3%) — LOSS

Cal State Bakersfield +8.5 (4%) — LOSS

Purdue -8.5 (3%) — LOSS

UNC Wilmington -5 (2%) — LOSS

*** Weber State ML (5%) — LOSS

Under 177.5 Kansas State/Oklahoma State (5%) — WIN

NHL

Flyers ML (3%) — LOSS

Flames ML (3%) — WIN

NBA

Julian Champagnie o18.5 PRA (5%) — LOSS

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2026 Performance Dashboard · MTD Through January 17

Bankroll53.4%

Record90–105–1

ROI (MTD)-46.6%

Total Plays196

Average Stake~3.8%

Risk TemperatureHigh

By League (MTD)

NFL5–7

CFB3–2

NCAAB42–52–1

NBA9–10

NHL22–21

By Market (MTD)

Moneyline48–57

Spread29–35

Totals22–18

Props7–9

By Stake Band (MTD)

2%20–16

3%40–50

4%23–31

5%4–9

This dashboard is diagnostic, not predictive. Pattern Walk marks structural alignment, not outcome certainty.

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Today’s Plays · January 18, 2026 · Final Card

English Premier League

Selective re-entry following full EPL miss yesterday

Everton at Aston Villa — Villa ML + Over 2.5 Goals +190 (3%)

NFL Divisional Round Playoffs

Playoff volatility acknowledged · sizing adjusted

Texans at Patriots — Patriots -3 -115 (6%)

*** Rams at Bears — Under 49.5 -115 (7%)

Rams at Bears — Puka Nacua Anytime TD -110 (3%)

NCAA Basketball

Pattern Walk–driven college exposure

*** Oakland at Green Bay — Green Bay +3 -112 (6%)

Wichita State at South Florida — Wichita State +10 -115 (5%)

NHL

Single-position hockey exposure

Ottawa Senators at Detroit Red Wings — Red Wings ML -120 (5%)

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Pattern Literacy

Asterisks indicate Pattern Walk compliance at the time of entry.

/pattern-walk