BROWNBAGBETS DECISION INTELLIGENCE
The BrownBagBets Decision Card
A better bet starts with a better decision.
Take one potential wager from first evidence through final review using the same decision cycle that governs BrownBagBets.
01
Before the eventWork through Evidence, Value, Confidence, Uncertainty, Price and Allocation.
02
Make the decisionCommit to Bet or Pass before the result can influence your reasoning.
03
After the eventReturn for Review and Calibration. Evaluate the process, not merely the outcome.
A completed Decision Card may end with a bet or a pass. Both are decisions.
EVIDENCE
What do you actually know?
Separate evidence from opinion, narrative, instinct, and enthusiasm.
What information is influencing this decision?
Where did that information come from?
Is it current?
Is it relevant to this specific market?
Are several pieces of evidence genuinely independent, or are they different versions of the same information?
Your Decision Card
EVIDENCE CHECK
Do I have qualified evidence, or mostly a persuasive story?
If the evidence cannot survive this question, stop. Pass.
VALUE
What makes this opportunity attractive?
Good evidence does not automatically create betting value.
Now ask what the evidence means relative to the market.
What appears mispriced?
What does your evidence suggest that the current market may not fully reflect?
Is the opportunity coming from context, price, or both?
Would you still like the wager if the team name and narrative were removed?
Your Decision Card
VALUE CHECK
Can I explain the value without simply saying I think this side will win?
If not, the thesis needs more work.
CONFIDENCE
How much support has the thesis actually earned?
Confidence should be produced by evidence.
It should not be produced by excitement.
How strong is the evidence?
How independent are the indicators?
How directly do they apply to this market?
How coherent is the overall case?
Your Decision Card
CONFIDENCE CHECK
Could I defend this confidence level using only evidence that existed before the result?
If not, reduce it.
UNCERTAINTY
What could make you wrong?
Confidence without uncertainty recognition becomes overconfidence.
Before continuing, actively challenge your own thesis.
What evidence points the other direction?
What am I assuming?
What information do I not have?
What could change before the event?
Could multiple indicators be hiding the same underlying risk?
What game state or market condition could break the thesis?
Your Decision Card
UNCERTAINTY CHECK
Would I still make this decision knowing these weaknesses?
If uncertainty materially damages the thesis, reduce confidence or pass.
PRICE
Has the opportunity survived the price?
A good idea can become a bad bet.
The question is not only whether you like the position. The question is whether you like it at this price.
What price is currently available?
What probability does that price imply?
Has the market already absorbed the information supporting my thesis?
At what price would I no longer participate?
Am I accepting a worse number simply because I want action?
Your Decision Card
PRICE DECISION
Has the wager survived the number currently available?
If the market has moved beyond your acceptable price, pass.
A disciplined pass after good research is still a successful decision.
ALLOCATION
How much capital has this decision earned?
Permission to bet is not permission to bet heavily.
Allocation should reflect the complete decision.
How strong is the evidence?
How clear is the value?
How much confidence has the thesis earned?
How much uncertainty remains?
Is the price still acceptable?
How much correlated exposure do I already have?
Your Decision Card
ALLOCATION CHECK
Would I choose the same allocation if I knew this wager was going to lose?
If the answer is no, reconsider whether emotion has entered the sizing decision.
DECISION
Has this wager earned permission?
You have now evaluated evidence, value, confidence, uncertainty, price, and allocation.
Make the decision before the result can influence the story.
Final Decision
DECISION STANDARD
The goal is not to find a reason to bet.
The goal is to determine whether the wager has earned the right to receive capital.
A pass is a completed decision.
AFTER THE EVENT
The decision is made. Now protect the learning.
Do not complete Review or Calibration until the event is over.
The purpose of the next two stages is not to explain the result. It is to evaluate the quality of the original decision and improve the process that produced it.
REVIEW
Was it a good decision?
After the event, do not begin with whether the wager won.
Begin with whether the decision itself was sound.
Was the original evidence sound?
Did the value thesis survive scrutiny?
Was uncertainty represented honestly?
Did I respect my price threshold?
Was the allocation appropriate?
Did the market move after my decision?
Did anything happen that I should have anticipated?
Your Decision Card
REVIEW CHECK
Am I evaluating the process, or rewriting the story because I know the result?
Outcome and decision quality are not the same thing.
CALIBRATION
What should change next time?
One decision is not a system.
Learning across decisions is what creates one.
Which evidence became more credible?
Which evidence deserves less influence?
Was my confidence properly calibrated?
Did I underestimate uncertainty?
Was my price threshold appropriate?
Was the allocation appropriate?
Did this expose a recurring weakness in my process?
Your Decision Card
CALIBRATION CHECK
What did this decision teach me that should influence the next one?
The purpose of review is not explanation. It is improvement.
THE BROWNBAGBETS STANDARD
The purpose of the Decision Card is not to create more bets.
It is to create fewer decisions made without structure.
A winning wager can still be a poor decision.
A losing wager can still be a disciplined decision.
A pass can be the best decision on the board.
Research earns influence.
Price grants permission.
Allocation controls exposure.
Review protects against hindsight.
Calibration improves the next decision.
That is Decision Intelligence for Bettors.
YOUR DECISION CARD
Your work is saved on this device as you go.
You can leave this page and return later without rebuilding the decision.