When Volume Becomes Variable: The BrownBagBets Philosophy on Full Display

BrownBagBets

Process in Public · Diagnostic Record, Not Forecast

January 17, 2026 · 11:30 AM ET

When the calendar fills up, discipline—not conviction—decides the outcome.

Where we are in the month
January has already tested patience. We’ve moved through drawdown, stabilization, and now into a stretch where opportunity and risk arrive at the same time. The bankroll is lower than anyone would prefer—but the structure is intact, and that matters more than comfort.

What yesterday clarified
Last night wasn’t about wins or losses. It was about exposure. On quieter slates, mistakes hide. On fuller cards, they compound quickly. The takeaway wasn’t emotional—it was mechanical: volume magnifies both good process and sloppy execution. That lesson carries directly into today.

Why today matters
With EPL in the morning, NFL playoff football, and a massive college basketball slate, today is not about “finding plays.” It’s about managing capital across many decisions without letting any single idea matter too much. That’s how professional betting actually works.

The BrownBagBets approach
We don’t aim to win every game. We aim to apply a repeatable filter (the Pattern Walk), size responsibly, and let volume and time do the work. Professional bettors win roughly 55–56% of the time. The edge comes from structure, discipline, and the ability to stay solvent long enough for math to assert itself.

/start-here — how to read this record and what it is not

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After Yesterday’s Results

Bankroll: 76.3%

*** = Pattern Walk compliant at time of entry

NCAA Basketball

Kent State at Toledo — Kent State -4.5 (3%) — LOSS

*** Creighton at Providence — Creighton ML (4%) — LOSS

Loyola Chicago at Dayton — Dayton -17.5 (3%) — WIN

Colorado State at Boise State — Colorado State +6.5 (3%) — LOSS

NHL

Sharks at Red Wings — Red Wings -1 (4%) — WIN

Lightning at Blues — Lightning -1.5 (3%) — LOSS

Predators at Avalanche — Avalanche -1.5 (2%) — LOSS

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2026 Performance Dashboard · MTD Through January 16

This dashboard is diagnostic, not predictive. Metrics roll forward daily with no retroactive edits.

Bankroll76.3%

Record83–86–1

ROI (MTD)-23.7%

Total Plays170

Average Stake~3.6%

Risk TemperatureElevated

By League (MTD)

NFL3–3

CFB3–2

NCAAB38–45–1

NBA9–9

NHL21–20

By Market (MTD)

Moneyline46–48

Spread26–28

Totals20–15

Props6–7

By Stake Band (MTD)

2%20–14

3%37–42

4%22–26

5%4–4

Pattern Walk plays indicate structural alignment at entry. The record tracks interpretation quality, not certainty.

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Today’s Plays · January 17, 2026

English Premier League

Distributed exposure across six positions

Fulham at Leeds — Fulham ML +225 (1%)

Fulham at Leeds — Over 2.5 Goals +105 (2%)

West Ham at Tottenham — Tottenham ML -125 (3%)

Crystal Palace at Sunderland — Under 2.5 -155 (2%)

Burnley at Liverpool — Liverpool ML + BTTS YES (3%)

Arsenal at Nottingham Forest — Arsenal -1.5 +160 (3%)

NFL Divisional Round Playoffs

22% of bankroll at risk

*** Broncos ML -110 (5%)

Over 46 -110 (3%)

RJ Harvey o13.5 Rushing Attempts -120 (3%)

*** Under 44.5 -105 (4%)

49ers +7.5 -115 (3%)

Kyle Juszczyk o1.5 Receptions -122 (3%)

NCAA Basketball

37% of bankroll at risk

*** Virginia Tech -4.5 (3%)

*** Virginia ML -125 (3%)

Wisconsin -14.5 (2%)

*** Dartmouth ML (3%)

*** Nebraska -3.5 (4%)

*** UNC -4.5 (3%)

Cal State Bakersfield +8.5 (4%)

Purdue -8.5 (3%)

UNC Wilmington -5 (2%)

*** Weber State ML (5%)

Under 177.5 (5%)

NHL

6% of bankroll at risk

Flyers ML -130 (3%)

Flames ML -110 (3%)

NBA

5% of bankroll at risk

Julian Champagnie o18.5 Points + Rebounds (5%)

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Pattern Literacy

Asterisks indicate Pattern Walk compliance at time of entry.

/pattern-walk — how structure is identified, not how outcomes are promised.