When the Math Hurts More Than the Loss

BrownBagBets

Process in Public · Diagnostic Record, Not Forecast

January 15, 2026 · 11:30 AM ET

Losses hurt. Math teaches.

Pattern Literacy Canon — Volume I

The foundational PDF that explains how BrownBagBets reads markets. Free, quiet, and sharp.

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Where the month stands
January has not been linear. We fought back to even, gave ground again, and now sit at a 78.5% bankroll after another difficult night. That movement is uncomfortable — and it’s exactly why this record exists.

The real work after a loss
Losing nights are easy to explain away. The harder — and more useful — response is to slow down and ask whether the bets were right even when the outcomes weren’t. That’s what today is about.

What we’re analyzing today
We’ll be reviewing last night through a side-by-side lens: the line we took, the reason we took it, and where the market ultimately closed. That comparison tells us whether we were early, wrong, or simply on the losing side of variance.

Why we keep publishing this
BrownBagBets is built on the belief that disciplined execution, documented honestly, can produce variable but repeatable passive income over time. That belief only matters if it survives nights like last night.

/start-here — how to read this project and what it is not

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After Yesterday’s Results

Bankroll: 78.5%

NOTE: *** = 100% Pattern Walk compliant at the time of entry.

NBA

Raptors at Pacers — Raptors ML (3%) — WIN

Raptors at Pacers — Murray-Boyles o18.5 P+R (3%) — WIN

Cavaliers at 76ers — Embiid o25.5 Pts (3%) — LOSS

NHL

Kraken at Devils — Kraken ML (3%) — LOSS

Knights at Kings — Knights ML (3%) — WIN

NCAA Basketball

*** Lehigh at Boston U. — Boston U. ML (4%) — LOSS

ETSU at Western Carolina — ETSU -5.5 (3%) — LOSS

*** Iona at Rider — Iona -7 (4%) — LOSS

*** St. Peters at Quinnipiac — Under 142.5 (4%) — LOSS

*** St. Bonaventure at St. Josephs — ML (4%) — LOSS

*** Temple at Memphis — Temple +7.5 (4%) — WIN

*** Rice at UTSA — Under 145.5 (4%) — LOSS

*** Auburn at Missouri — Missouri +1.5 (3%) — WIN

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2026 Performance Dashboard · MTD Through January 14

Bankroll78.5%

Record74–77–1

ROI (MTD)-21.5%

Total Plays MTD152

Average Stake~3.3%

Market PhaseContained — selective edges

Process StatusContained

Risk TemperatureElevated

Pattern Walk Record14–15

By League (MTD)

NFL3–3

CFB3–2

NCAAB34–39–1

NBA9–9

NHL17–16

By Market (MTD)

Moneyline42–43

Spread22–22

Totals20–15

Props6–7

By Stake Band (MTD)

2%20–13

3%34–38

4%20–25

5%0–1

This dashboard is diagnostic, not predictive.

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Today’s Plays · January 15, 2026

NCAA Basketball

*** New Mexico State at Liberty — Liberty -8 -120 (5%)

*** UMBC at Bryant — Bryant ML -130 (5%)

*** Queens at FGCU — Queens ML -122 (5%)

*** Green Bay at Stetson — Stetson +5.5 -115 (5%)

*** Old Dominion at Georgia Southern — Georgia Southern -5 -115 (5%)

NHL

Sharks at Capitals — Sharks +1.5 -142 (4%)

Jets at Wild — Wild ML -160 (4%)

Canucks at Blue Jackets — Blue Jackets -1 -111 (3%)

Stars at Mammoth — Stars ML -110 (5%)

Flyers at Penguins — Penguins ML -145 (3%)

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Pattern Literacy

Asterisks indicate Pattern Walk compliance at the time of entry.

/pattern-walk