Stability Is Earned One Night at a Time

BrownBagBets

Process in Public · Diagnostic Record, Not Forecast

January 16, 2026 · 11:30 AM ET

Recovery is structure showing up again.

Pattern Literacy Canon — Volume I

The foundational PDF that explains how BrownBagBets reads markets. Free, quiet, and sharp.

Join the Pattern Literacy List

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

Where we’re standing today
January hasn’t been kind, but it has been honest. After a tough stretch that pulled the bankroll down sharply, last night marked a subtle but important shift — not a turnaround, not a victory lap, but a reminder of what this process looks like when it starts doing its job again.

What yesterday actually told us
The 7–4 night didn’t fix the month, and it wasn’t supposed to. What it did was show structure re-emerging under pressure. Pattern Walk–aligned college basketball plays carried the night, not because they’re magical, but because the reads were disciplined and the sizing was intentional. Some plays still lost. That’s part of it. The difference was how the losses fit into the larger picture.

The tension in the middle of the month
This is the most dangerous part of a betting month. Not the drawdown — the response to it. After a better night, the temptation is to press, to believe momentum has arrived, to speed things up. That’s how progress gets undone. Recovery, when it’s real, is quieter than people expect.

What today is about
Today’s card isn’t about chasing what we lost or amplifying what worked. It’s about continuing to execute correctly while the numbers are still uncomfortable. That’s the work most bettors never see, and it’s the only work that matters if this approach is going to produce durable, repeatable results over time.

/start-here — how to read this record, and what not to project onto it

---

After Yesterday’s Results

Bankroll: 80.4%

NOTE: *** = 100% Pattern Walk compliant at the time of entry.

NCAA Basketball

*** New Mexico State at Liberty — Liberty -8 (5%) — LOSS

*** UMBC at Bryant — Bryant ML (5%) — WIN

*** Queens at FGCU — Queens ML (5%) — WIN

*** Green Bay at Stetson — Stetson +5.5 (5%) — WIN

*** Old Dominion at Georgia Southern — Georgia Southern -5 (5%) — LOSS

NHL

Sharks at Capitals — Sharks +1.5 (4%) — WIN

Jets at Wild — Wild ML (4%) — LOSS

Canucks at Blue Jackets — Blue Jackets -1 (3%) — WIN

Stars at Mammoth — Stars ML (5%) — LOSS

Flyers at Penguins — Penguins ML (3%) — WIN

---

2026 Performance Dashboard · MTD Through January 15

Bankroll80.4%

Record81–81–1

ROI (MTD)-19.6%

Total Plays MTD163

Average Stake~3.6%

Market PhaseContained — selective edges

Process StatusStabilizing

Risk TemperatureElevated

Pattern Walk Record17–17

By League (MTD)

NFL3–3

CFB3–2

NCAAB37–42–1

NBA9–9

NHL20–18

By Market (MTD)

Moneyline46–47

Spread24–24

Totals20–15

Props6–7

By Stake Band (MTD)

2%20–13

3%36–39

4%21–25

5%4–4

This dashboard is diagnostic, not predictive.

---

Today’s Plays · January 16, 2026

NCAA Basketball

Toledo at Kent State — Kent State -4.5 -115 (3%)

*** Creighton at Providence — Creighton ML -120 (4%)

Loyola Chicago at Dayton — Dayton -17.5 -110 (3%)

Colorado State at Boise State — Colorado State +6.5 -115 (3%)

NHL

Sharks at Red Wings — Red Wings -1 -110 (4%)

Lightning at Blues — Lightning -1.5 +143 (3%)

Predators at Avalanche — Avalanche -1.5 -115 (2%)

---

Pattern Literacy

Asterisks indicate Pattern Walk compliance at the time of entry.

/pattern-walk