When the Math Is Right but the Night Isn’t

BrownBagBets

Process in Public · Diagnostic Record, Not Forecast

January 14, 2026 · 9:00 AM ET

Last night was a sizing lesson disguised as variance.

Pattern Literacy Canon — Volume I

The foundational PDF that explains how BrownBagBets reads markets. Free, quiet, and sharp.

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System Note

BrownBagBets is a diagnostic record, not a prediction feed. Each Daily Card documents decision process, risk posture, and pattern interpretation in real time — including losses, drawdowns, recovery, and restraint. This page is meant to be studied, not followed.

If you're new here: this isn't a picks page, and it isn't meant to be consumed emotionally. The Daily Card documents how the BrownBagBets team interprets sports betting through the lens of market behavior (line movement), risk management, and executing a repeatable process transparently — including losses, drawdowns, recovery, and restraint. If you're looking for guarantees or certainty, this won't be useful. If you're here to study decision quality and learn the art of sports betting, you're in the right place.

The story of the month so far
January has been a back-and-forth month. We reached even, we slipped, and we’re doing the same thing each time: recording what happened without rewriting the story afterward. That’s the point of BrownBagBets — a long-term view in a space that usually lives moment to moment.

The problem most bettors run into
The hardest part of sports betting isn’t picking games. It’s handling uncertainty. When a night goes badly, most people change their behavior: they chase, they double down, or they abandon what worked before. That reaction is what turns a rough night into a losing month.

What we do differently
We treat results as data, and we treat sizing as the steering wheel. Last night wasn’t “bad luck.” It was a clear reminder that one oversized position can erase a lot of good work, and that confidence in a sport (like NHL) can quietly grow past what the record supports.

Why we think this can work over time
BrownBagBets is built around a simple belief: disciplined risk, honest record-keeping, and repeatable interpretation can produce variable but consistent passive income over time. Not every night contributes. Some nights teach. The job is staying stable enough to keep compounding when the market gives the opportunity.

Where to start
/start-here — how to read the system and the patterns beneath performance

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After Yesterday’s Results

Bankroll: 90.6%

NOTE: *** = 100% Pattern Walk compliant at the time of entry.

NCAA Basketball

Central Michigan at Miami (OH) — Over 154.5 -117 (4%) — WIN

Ohio at Toledo — Toledo ML -125 (2%) — WIN

Wisconsin at Minnesota — Minnesota +2 -118 (2%) — LOSS

UConn at Seton Hall — Seton Hall +6.5 -115 (2%) — WIN

Bradley at Evansville — Evansville +6.5 -104 (2%) — WIN

*** Western Illinois at Eastern Illinois — Eastern Illinois -7 -115 (4%) — LOSS

Florida State at Syracuse — Syracuse -8.5 -110 (2%) — LOSS

Grand Canyon at New Mexico — Under 144.5 -110 (3%) — LOSS

*** Baylor at Oklahoma State — Oklahoma State ML -105 (5%) — LOSS

NHL

Lightning at Penguins — Under 6.5 -125 (2%) — WIN

Canadiens at Capitals — Canadiens ML +136 (3%) — LOSS

Red Wings at Bruins — Red Wings ML +110 (3%) — LOSS

Islanders at Jets — Islanders ML +115 (3%) — LOSS

Maple Leafs at Mammoth — Mammoth ML -145 (2%) — WIN

NBA

Suns at Heat — Suns +1.5 -118 (2%) — LOSS

Nuggets at Pelicans — Nuggets -1.5 -117 (2%) — WIN

Timberwolves at Bucks — Bucks ML -140 (2%) — LOSS

Spurs at Thunder — Thunder -8.5 -115 (2%) — WIN

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2026 Performance Dashboard · MTD Through January 13

Metrics shown are descriptive of process — not predictive of outcomes.

Month-to-date totals roll forward daily from the prior record. No retroactive edits.

Bankroll90.6%

Record69–69–1

ROI (MTD)-9.4%

Total Plays MTD139

Average Stake~3%

Market PhaseContained — selective edges

Process StatusContained

Risk TemperatureNeutral

Pattern Walk Record12–10

By League (MTD)

NFL3–3

CFB3–2

NCAAB32–33–1

NBA7–8

NHL16–15

By Market (MTD)

Moneyline40–40

Spread20–20

Totals20–13

Props5–6

By Stake Band (MTD)

2%20–13

3%30–35

4%19–20

5%0–1

This dashboard is diagnostic, not predictive.

Pattern Walk refers to system-aligned plays verified by pattern criteria at the time of entry. The record tracks interpretation accuracy, not prediction.

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Today’s Plays · January 14, 2026

NBA

Raptors at Pacers — Raptors ML -130 (3%)

Raptors at Pacers — Collin Murray-Boyles o18.5 Points + Rebounds -114 (3%)

NHL

Kraken at Devils — Kraken ML +136 (3%)

Golden Knights at Kings — Knights ML -110 (3%)

NCAA Basketball

*** Lehigh at Boston University — Boston U. ML -105 (4%)

Eastern Tennessee State at Western Carolina — Eastern Tennessee State -5.5 -115 (3%)

*** Auburn at Missouri — Missouri +1.5 -115 (3%)

*** Iona at Rider — Iona -7 -115 (4%)

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Pattern Literacy

Asterisks indicate Pattern Walk compliance at the time of entry. They reflect structural alignment — not conviction.

/pattern-walk — the worldview that defines how structure is read, not forecasted.