January Closes With A Literal Blizzard of Options

BrownBagBets

Process in Public · Diagnostic Record, Not Forecast

January 28, 2026 · 10:30 AM ET

Daily Record · Orientation before action

If you are arriving here for the first time, this page may not look like what you expect. It is not a list of “best bets.” It is not built to persuade. It is a public operating record — a place where decisions, sizing, and outcomes are logged honestly so the process can be examined over time.

BrownBagBets exists to document how markets behave across repetition, not how any single night turns out. That distinction matters most during stretches like this one, when variance is loud and confidence is tested. The goal is not to escape those periods quickly. The goal is to navigate them without distortion.

Tuesday closed 3–4. The largest position on the board won. Several smaller positions did not. The bankroll adjusted again, now sitting in the mid-50s. Nothing here is reframed or smoothed. The value comes from what the distribution is beginning to show.

When you step back from individual outcomes and look at the diagnostic dashboard as a whole, a clearer picture emerges. High-conviction positions continue to perform. Mid-band exposure is where nearly all volatility lives. Totals are holding up better than sides. NCAA basketball remains information-dense but increasingly readable. These are not conclusions — they are signals.

Today reflects that posture. This is an early release with a partial card. More volume may follow later this afternoon, but only if structure improves. The objective is not activity for its own sake. It is restraint until pricing makes sense.

This page will continue to function as a record — of decisions, of sizing, and of how markets reveal themselves over time. Winning days matter. Losing days inform. Flat days protect.

If you are new, begin with the framework before the plays: /start-here.

System Note: This is a diagnostic record, not a prediction product. The goal is continuity — documenting how structure behaves, how risk is managed, and how learning compounds across a month.