MLB Indicator Framework
A governed system for identifying which baseball-specific conditions may influence a BrownBagBets decision, how they relate to one another, and when they deserve operational weight.
Baseball analysis begins with structure, not statistics.
BrownBagBets organizes MLB information into five indicator families so that game conditions can be evaluated without confusing volume, overlap, or narrative with genuine decision value.
The framework does not assume that every indicator matters in every game. A pitcher-outs wager, first-five side, full-game total, and batter prop may require completely different evidence even when they involve the same teams.
The purpose of the register is to identify the relevant questions first, then determine whether qualified and independent evidence supports an actionable interpretation.
The framework separates where information comes from before asking what it means.
Starter condition, fit, and expected workload
Current condition, arsenal interaction, command, contact profile, pitch efficiency, and removal risk.
Who is playing and how the lineup attacks
Confirmed availability, batting order, matchup advantage, offensive approach, depth, and run-creation pressure.
What happens after contact and after the starter
Bullpen condition, defensive alignment, catching, relief hierarchy, and manager usage.
The conditions surrounding the matchup
Park, weather, schedule, travel, umpire, roster movement, and expected game shape.
What the market expects and what remains available
Price behavior, probability comparison, news absorption, cross-market consistency, and historical fit.
The public framework begins with twelve parent indicators.
Each parent indicator can later connect to a deeper page containing its definition, mechanism, market applicability, evidence requirements, overlap risks, and limitations.
Starting Pitcher Current Condition
Evaluates the pitcher’s present physical, mechanical, workload, velocity, command, and contact-quality condition without relying on surface results alone.
Future indicator pageStarting Pitcher Matchup Fit
Tests whether a pitcher’s arsenal, movement, velocity bands, contact profile, and platoon strengths fit the particular opposing lineup.
Future indicator pageStarting Pitcher Workload and Removal Risk
Estimates how likely the starter is to remain in the game based on pitch counts, health, buildup, manager behavior, bullpen conditions, and opponent approach.
Future indicator pageConfirmed Lineup and Player Availability
Uses the official lineup, batting order, catcher assignment, rested regulars, injury limits, promotions, trades, and bench options.
Future indicator pageLineup Matchup Advantage
Evaluates how the confirmed lineup’s handedness, pitch-type performance, power, contact zones, depth, and role distribution interact with the opposing staff.
Future indicator pageOffensive Approach Matchup
Examines how chase, swing, contact, walk, strikeout, count management, batted-ball tendencies, and baserunning pressure affect the selected market.
Future indicator pageBullpen Availability and Quality
Combines recent usage, role availability, relief quality, leverage hierarchy, option moves, and expected manager access to the bullpen.
Future indicator pageDefense and Catcher Impact
Evaluates positional defense, range, conversion quality, framing, throwing, blocking, game calling, and fit with the expected contact profile.
Future indicator pageBallpark and Weather Conditions
Examines park dimensions, roof status, temperature, wind, humidity, air density, precipitation, and their interaction with the expected batted-ball profile.
Future indicator pageSchedule, Travel, and Rest
Evaluates travel, turnaround, series placement, day-night sequencing, doubleheaders, rest disadvantages, and roster-management pressure.
Future indicator pageExpected Game Shape
Synthesizes the likely development of the game: pitcher-controlled, contact-heavy, bullpen-driven, high-variance, one-sided, or leverage-dependent.
Future indicator pageMarket Positioning and Price Behavior
Evaluates the current number, market movement, public participation, news absorption, cross-market behavior, and the difference between price and estimated probability.
Future indicator pageThese are not additional MLB signals. They are controls applied to every signal.
Indicator Relevance
Does the indicator actually apply to this market, player, team, and decision?
Evidence Quality
Is the information reliable, current, properly sourced, and strong enough to deserve influence?
Indicator Independence
Does the indicator add a distinct mechanism, or does it repeat information already counted?
Sample Reliability
Is the sample relevant, stable, explainable, and appropriately weighted for the claim being made?
Value Convergence
Do context-derived and price-derived value point toward the same participation decision?
Uncertainty Recognition
What remains unknown, unstable, conflicting, or capable of invalidating the interpretation?
The indicator register is a prerequisite to stacking.
The system first identifies the relevant registered indicators, then verifies the evidence, removes overlap, and only then combines the remaining inputs.
Select applicable indicators
The sport and market determine which parent and child indicators may enter the decision.
Apply evidence standards
Each input must earn influence through reliable and decision-relevant evidence.
Remove duplication
Shared mechanisms and derivative statistics are grouped so they are not counted as separate confirmation.
Build the evidence structure
Independent indicators combine to shape expected game form, value, confidence, uncertainty, and price discipline.
The framework does not ask how many favorable facts exist. It asks which governed indicators are present, independent, relevant, and not already priced in.
A recognized MLB indicator authorizes a line of inquiry. It does not guarantee predictive power, justify a wager, or receive equal weight in every market. Operational influence must always be earned through evidence, independence, price, and review.