86% is the bankroll.
The record stays visible.
Tuesday finished 3–6 and reduced the reported November bankroll to 86% of its opening baseline. BrownBagBets will not disguise that result or promise a bounce-back. We will examine what failed, make evidence-based adjustments, and publish today's decisions with the same scrutiny. Wednesday brings 11 positions across three sports, with a total planned allocation of 25%.
Three wins. Six losses.
And clear questions to answer.
Florida State +10.5, Andre Drummond over 6.5 rebounds and Davion Mitchell over 21.5 points plus assists were the three winners. The other six decisions lost. The most consequential misses were both college totals: Kent State and Bowling Green produced 61 combined points against Under 45.5, and Virginia Tech and Iowa produced 181 against Under 143.5. Those were not narrow misses; they invite a direct review of projected possessions, scoring efficiency and whether our total assumptions adequately reflected realistic upside.
The Knicks game split its two player positions. Drummond finished with 14 rebounds, while Jalen Brunson made just one three-pointer. Illinois −1.5, Kansas/Kentucky Under 155.5 and Ottawa moneyline also lost. Ottawa carries an important process finding: the research anticipated Linus Ullmark in goal, but Samuel Ersson started. A starter-sensitive thesis must be reauthorized when its central premise changes.
All nine November 10 positions graded. A losing outcome remains a visible part of the ledger.
Reported reference-bankroll return, not a projection of the next card.
Fourteen percentage points below November's 100% starting reference.
Some markets are working better.
None has earned a blank check.
The league breakdown supplied from the BrownBagBets performance register shows NBA at 7–2 (77.8%), the strongest early win percentage. College basketball is 3–4 (42.9%) after only seven decisions. That sample is too young to infer a reliable edge or weakness, particularly with NCAA basketball volume expected to grow in the weeks ahead. Track the sample, price and return as it accumulates rather than changing allocations based only on a handful of results.
| League | W | L | Push | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA | 7 | 2 | 0 | 77.8% |
| NCAA Football | 9 | 8 | 0 | 52.9% |
| NCAA Basketball | 3 | 4 | 0 | 42.9% |
| NFL | 12 | 17 | 0 | 41.4% |
| NHL | 3 | 5 | 0 | 37.5% |
| UEFA Champions League | 3 | 3 | 0 | 50.0% |
| EPL | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.0% |
| TOTAL | 37 | 41 | 1 | 47.4% |
77.8% on nine decisions. Encouraging but still a small sample and not evidence of a guaranteed future hit rate.
42.9% on seven decisions. Early-stage research category; expand the sample and track market subtypes.
29 decisions, the largest supplied sample. Examine market choice, allocation and ticket price alongside win percentage.
Historical success is valuable only when supported by a reconciled record. Without audited prior-month figures in this publication, we will not substitute unsupported winning-streak or lifetime-return claims for the actual November review. The system is designed to remain accountable in both profitable and losing periods.
Eleven decisions.
25% of reference capital.
All prices and allocations below are the team's submitted entry terms, not a claim of live Caesars availability. The portfolio includes three NCAA basketball positions totaling 6%, six NBA positions totaling 15%, and two NHL positions totaling 4%. No single ticket exceeds 3%, but two NBA games each represent 6% of the starting bankroll.
Each wager needs its own reason.
Each reason has a failure case.
The following research preserves the team's submitted logic while identifying material uncertainty and execution checks. Player statistics and subjective matchup indicators are research-room inputs unless linked to an independent source. Each ticket must still satisfy the price and participation standards at execution.
Navy +10.5
Navy's 26-win season and NIT appearance last year are the contextual foundation, but those achievements do not settle today's number. The research identifies a rough season opener with Jordan Pinnick absent, followed by his return over the next two contests. Availability and role are meaningful because the early game sample may not describe the current Navy lineup.
Penn returns four starters from an NCAA Tournament team and deserves to be favored. The question is whether the market has overextended that advantage to double digits in Annapolis. Navy's home setting and a more complete rotation are the mechanisms behind the points.
This is a spread position rather than a Navy outright forecast. Track Pinnick's confirmed participation, Navy's turnover rate and whether Penn creates enough transition separation to threaten the cushion.
College of Charleston ML
The team thesis begins with a coaching and tempo change. John Groce's preferred attack is guard-led and fast, and Charleston seeks to impose that rhythm on a Temple side that the research room views as more comfortable at a slower pace.
Temple's offensive inconsistency and rebounding problems are the proposed pressure points. A quicker game can multiply decisions and make it difficult for a limited half-court offense to recover after empty possessions.
Charleston's opening results came against non-Division I opponents, a meaningful caveat when projecting scoring efficiency. The moneyline position expresses a close-match advantage if Charleston can dictate pace; it is not an assertion that early opponent-adjusted statistics already prove that edge.
UC Santa Barbara +2.5
Nevada arrives unbeaten but needed overtime to get past Saint Mary's in a 96–95 result. That outcome supplies useful information about recent competitive intensity without proving either fatigue or a defensive flaw. UC Santa Barbara also enters unbeaten with home victories to start the season.
The Gauchos' familiar home floor and returning production are the foundation of the underdog thesis. The submitted research views their perimeter scoring as capable of keeping pace and emphasizes Nevada's road uncertainty under Steve Alford.
At +2.5, the market offers a narrow cushion, not a large margin for error. Record actual three-point volume and quality, rebounding, and late-game free-throw execution when reviewing whether the home-court angle materialized.
Donovan Mitchell over 22.5 points
Mitchell's scoring history at Madison Square Garden is the entry point. The supplied research cites regular-season outputs of 31 and 34 in New York last season and playoff performances of 26 and 29. The threshold asks him for 23 points, below each of those cited games.
The stronger framework is current opportunity and shot volume, not arena history by itself. If Cleveland's offensive structure puts Mitchell in familiar high-usage possessions, pull-up shooting, drives and free throws provide several paths to the number.
Because four historical examples can overstate predictive confidence, confirm his active status and expected workload; compare actual usage, attempts and free throws to the pregame assumptions.
Andre Drummond over 5.5 rebounds
Drummond cleared the previous night's 6.5 line with 14 rebounds, according to the supplied settlement. Today's threshold is one rebound lower, a relevant change in entry price and required outcome, but yesterday's success is not permission by itself to repeat the wager.
The submitted research describes eight clears in ten appearances and a limited role of roughly 10 to 15 minutes. This is a rebound-rate versus minutes bet: Drummond must stay highly productive during a potentially short window, with Jarrett Allen's return complicating rotation expectations.
Verify active status, center rotation and likely playing time before execution. In the postgame ledger record rebounds per minute and actual run, not merely whether the ticket cashed.
Washington Wizards +4
Washington's recent four-game skid is balanced against the quality of that stretch: Detroit, Oklahoma City and two games against Atlanta. The supplied thesis emphasizes the Wizards' length, turnover creation and ability to disrupt perimeter actions even while recent results were negative.
Indiana's recent form without Tyrese Haliburton introduces uncertainty around its usual offensive rhythm. Washington's defensive possessions are the key expression of value if they slow Indiana's preferred three-point volume and avoid allowing too many second-chance points.
The research anticipates Anthony Davis being available, which is a material pregame condition rather than a confirmed fact in this analysis. Check his status and any line movement before authorizing this side; +4 is only useful at the captured entry price.
Andrew Nembhard over 23.5 points + assists
The Nembhard case is a role-dependent combined production thesis. Without Haliburton, the research room reports 26.2 points plus assists per game and five clears in six games, giving a narrow recent sample that supports the proposed threshold.
Washington's defensive length is part of the team-side argument, but the player prop isolates Nembhard's individual volume in pick-and-roll and pull-up situations. That is a genuine tension: the Wizards can compete defensively while Nembhard still produces enough points and assists to clear.
The research should track both points and assists, role, potential assists and minutes. Treat this and Wizards +4 as two tickets in the same game rather than two unrelated exposures.
AJ Dybantsa over 5.5 rebounds
Dybantsa appears on Washington's 2026–27 roster, and the submitted research identifies rebounding performance linked to his playing time after returning from injury. It cites five clears in six games with at least 30 minutes.
Indiana's pace and rebounding environment are the supporting factors. More possessions and available misses create additional chances for a forward who has been playing starter-level minutes; neither guarantees six rebounds.
This is the third Washington–Indiana ticket, bringing game-level exposure to 6%. Confirm starting status, minutes expectation, availability of other Washington frontcourt rebounders and how the market may move before placement.
Ty Jerome over 21.5 points
The submitted research describes a 32.3% usage rate, approximately 31 minutes per game and 26.7 points per outing through nine games. Those are strong opportunity indicators if they remain representative of Jerome's current role.
His cited home scoring and shooting splits suggest that Memphis may lean on his on-ball creation. The research contrasts that scoring profile with a Denver defensive rating ranked 20th entering the contest; this should be treated as a time-specific input rather than a permanent property of the matchup.
The number requires 22 points. Review actual touches, shot attempts, free throws and minutes after settlement. At 3% it is among today's highest allocations and deserves the same independent process review even if it wins.
Over 6 total goals
Edmonton's scoring environment and power play are the primary drivers of the Over thesis. The submitted research cites 4.05 goals per game and a power play converting 32.4% of opportunities. Special teams could create fast scoring bursts in a game that is otherwise competitive at even strength.
Philadelphia's recent scoring recovery supplies the second side of the argument, with the research room citing 3.10 goals per game across its prior ten. A two-sided scoring path matters more than relying on a single favorite to carry the entire total.
A total of exactly six typically pushes a standard Over 6 ticket; seven or more is required to win. Before execution, verify expected starting goalies and the exact Asian/whole-goal grading at Caesars, and monitor penalty volume against the thesis.
Anaheim Ducks ML
Anaheim's five-game winning run and recent offensive output create the form side of this position. The research also anticipates Troy Terry returning from injury, which would improve available forward depth if confirmed in the active lineup.
The scheduling angle is Nashville playing the second leg of a road back-to-back after visiting Los Angeles. The research projects backup Justus Annunen after Juuse Saros played Tuesday. That goalie assignment is not confirmed simply because the schedule makes it plausible.
Anaheim's home rest advantage is the desired edge, but the original Ottawa loss illustrates why goalies cannot be treated as a footnote. Confirm both starting netminders, the Ducks lineup and late price before deciding whether the moneyline remains authorized.
25% handle.
Not 25% expected profit.
25% of the $10,000 reference bankroll. Actual account stakes may differ and should be reconciled to placed tickets.
Reported relative to November's initial 100% reference, with no automatic increase to unit sizing following recent losses.
Only if every straight bet earns the illustrative maximum of 10 credits per $100 of qualifying handle. Actual eligibility and posting are subject to Caesars terms.
Assumes a corresponding 250 Reward Credits at a standard one-cent redemption value; this is not wager profit or guaranteed award value.
At a reported 86% bankroll, cash allocation discipline matters more than an attractive recent hit rate in any one league. Track gross stake, price, net return, closing line value, event-level overlap and each ticket's permission status. Do not chase the fourteen-point November drawdown by enlarging positions without a documented change in the evidence.
Availability is evidence.
Verification is part of the work.
Tuesday's Ottawa loss reinforces that expected starters must be confirmed before final authorization. Today, verify Drummond's rotation and Jarrett Allen's status, Anthony Davis's availability, Dybantsa's expected minutes, and the starting goaltenders for both NHL games. Check any injury or lineup change against the original thesis, and retain the exact ticket price and settlement grading. These are execution requirements, not retrospective excuses.
Schedule references: CBS Sports college basketball · UC Santa Barbara Athletics · NBA schedule · NHL schedule · Wizards roster.
The losses are recorded.
The standards stay in force.
There is plenty of November left, but the calendar does not owe the bankroll a recovery. Each of today's eleven positions must stand on its own evidence and price. The results will be published, studied and used to improve tomorrow's decisions.
