Shifting Focus, Staying Disciplined

BrownBagBets · Daily Card

This page tracks what we bet, how we sized it, and what it returned.

January 7, 2026. 9:00 AM ET, with a midday update logged at 12:30 PM ET. Most betting content is built like entertainment: big opinions, clean narratives, selective memory. This page is built like a ledger. It’s where the month stays honest, especially when the day doesn’t cooperate.

Here’s what that means in plain terms. We write down the bet, the market, and the stake before the result. We keep it in public. Then we update the dashboard so you can see where the month is actually being won or lost — not by vibes, but by league, market type, and wager size. If you’re new, that’s the whole point: learn what disciplined betting looks like when variance is loud. If you’ve been here a while, you already know why the record matters more than the recap.

Yesterday expanded into a large cross-sport slate and the results punished exposure. That doesn’t get dramatized here; it gets categorized. Today narrows the focus. We’re leaning into the English Premier League because the reads have been steadier and the prices have been easier to interpret this week. And as the college basketball board matured through the morning, a handful of plays surfaced that met full Pattern Walk standards — those were added at 12:30 PM ET and marked below.

More may come later. Or it may not. The rule stays the same: we let the numbers earn the bet.

/start-here

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Results · January 6, 2026

• EPL · Nottingham Forest at West Ham — Forest ML (2%) WIN
• EPL · Nottingham Forest at West Ham — Over 2.5 (2%) WIN
• NHL · Canucks at Sabres — Sabres -1 (2%) WIN
• NHL · Ducks at Flyers — Flyers ML (2%) LOSS
• NHL · Stars at Hurricanes — Stars ML (2%) LOSS
• NHL · Avalanche at Lightning — Avalanche ML (2%) LOSS
• NHL · Devils at Islanders — Devils ML (3%) LOSS
• NHL · Predators at Oilers — Predators ML (2%) LOSS
• NCAAB · Cincinnati at West Virginia — WVU -2 (3%) PUSH
• NCAAB · #18 Georgia at Florida — Georgia +9.5 (5%) LOSS
• NCAAB · Syracuse at Georgia Tech — GT ML (3%) LOSS
• NCAAB · SDSU at Nevada — Nevada -1.5 (3%) LOSS
• NBA · Spurs at Grizzlies — Jaren Jackson UNDER PRA (3%) LOSS

2026 Performance Dashboard · Reconciled Through January 6

Bankroll

79.4%

Record

13–22–1

Total Plays

36

ROI

–20.6%

By League (Approx. Net Impact)

EPL 2–0 (≈ +4.0%)
NCAAF 2–1 (≈ +2.6%)
NCAAB 4–6–1 (≈ –11.3%)
NHL 5–9 (≈ –13.9%)
NBA 1–3 (≈ –4.0%)

By Market (Approx.)

Moneyline 9–10 (≈ –7.4%)
Spread 5–4 (≈ +1.2%)
Totals 1–0 (≈ +2.0%)
Props 1–3 (≈ –4.0%)

By Stake Tier (Approx.)

5% 1–2 (≈ –5.0%)
4% 1–1 (≈ –0.6%)
3% 2–4 (≈ –6.0%)
2% 9–10 (≈ –9.0%)

This dashboard is diagnostic, not predictive. Net impact figures are approximate estimates intended to show directional contribution, not precise accounting. Early January compresses liquidity, sharpens closing efficiency, and exaggerates variance. The objective remains preservation, signal capture, and patience while structure reveals itself.

Today’s Plays · January 7, 2026 (Updated 12:30 PM ET)

• EPL · Tottenham at Bournemouth — Over 2.5 Goals (2%)
• EPL · Wolves at Everton — Over 2.5 Goals (2%)
• EPL · Wolves at Everton — Everton ML (2%)
• EPL · Aston Villa at Crystal Palace — Villa ML (3%)
• EPL · Brighton at Manchester City — Man City -1.5 (2%)
• EPL · Sunderland at Brentford — Under 2.5 (2%)
• EPL · Leeds United at Newcastle — Over 2.5 Goals (2%)
• EPL · Manchester United at Burnley — Over 2.5 Goals (2%)
• NCAAB · Belmont at Northern Iowa — Northern Iowa ML (4%)
• NCAAB · Holy Cross at Lehigh — Lehigh ML (2%) NEW · 12:30 PM ET ◈ Pattern Walk Ready
• NCAAB · Longwood at UNC Asheville — UNC Asheville -2.5 (2%) NEW · 12:30 PM ET ◈ Pattern Walk Ready
• NCAAB · Indiana at Maryland — Maryland +8 (2%) NEW · 12:30 PM ET ◈ Pattern Walk Ready
• NCAAB · #13 Alabama at #11 Vanderbilt — Vanderbilt -3.5 (2%) NEW · 12:30 PM ET ◈ Pattern Walk Ready

Pattern Walk

The Pattern Walk is the habit that keeps volume from becoming noise. It forces each bet to earn its place through price behavior, timing, and closing context — not confidence or narrative.

/pattern-walk

If Pattern Literacy resonates, the next step is here. → /pattern-literacy