Edges Compound Through Discipline.

Feb 3

Written By Jack Pocorobba

BrownBagBets — Daily Card | February 3, 2026

BrownBagBets — Daily Card

February 3, 2026

5:00 PM ET

Thesis

Daily framing

Edges compound through discipline.

Monday closed 4–4. No runaway wins. No dramatic swings. Just eight decisions taken at the right size, under the right conditions, and logged exactly as played. That was enough to move February back into the green. The bankroll now sits at 104%, exactly where this process is designed to breathe again.

The UNC miss by half a point stung. Half-points matter. Key numbers matter. Over enough repetitions, they cut both ways. That isn’t frustration—it’s the cost of operating in real markets instead of chasing highlight outcomes.

BrownBagBets is not a tip sheet. It’s a public record of bettors learning the craft together by studying volume, tracking data, and identifying repeatable patterns in how markets behave.

February is still young. Confidence isn’t coming from a single day’s result—it’s coming from sticking to structure after a difficult January and letting the work stabilize naturally.

That’s how this grows. Slowly. Publicly. Together.

New here? Start with the framework before the picks: /start-here

Yesterday’s Results

Logged outcomes

Sunderland ML + Over 2.5	WIN
UNC -10.5	LOSS
SF Austin +3.5	WIN
Sacramento State +1.5	WIN
Hornets -7.5	LOSS
Pacers +6.5	WIN
Clippers -1.5	LOSS
Predators -1.5	LOSS

Diagnostic Dashboard

State, not prediction

YTD Results (2026)

Record: 137–152–1
Total Plays: 290

MTD Results (February)

Record: 4–4
Bankroll: 104%
Total Plays: 8

System State

Market Phase: NCAA Basketball Focus
Process Status: Bread & Butter
Risk Temperature: Warm

This dashboard is diagnostic, not predictive. Metrics roll forward daily with no retroactive edits.

Today’s Plays

Updated 5:00 PM ET

🏀 NCAA Basketball

Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU) at Fordham
Fordham +8.5 (-115) · Wager: 2%

Western Michigan at Ohio
Western Michigan +9 (-110) · 3%

Valparaiso at Bradley
Valparaiso +9.5 (-115) · 2%

St. Louis at Davidson
Over 146.5 (-115) · 4%

Nevada at Boise State
Nevada +6.5 (-110) · 3%

🏀 NBA

Denver Nuggets at Detroit Pistons
Jalen Duren under 28.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-120) · 3%

New York Knicks at Washington Wizards
Carlton Carrington over 4.5 total assists (-140) · 3%
Wizards +13.5 (-110) · 2%

Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat
Jalen Johnson over 18.5 Rebounds + Assists (-104) · 3%

Boston Celtics at Dallas Mavericks
Cooper Flagg over 6.5 rebounds (-145) · 3%

Philadelphia 76ers at Golden State Warriors
Warriors -3 (-110) · 2%

🏒 NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Edmonton Oilers
Edmonton -1 (-125) · 3%

FAQ

How to read this card

Is this a picks service?

No. This is a public decision ledger documenting real bets, real sizing, and real outcomes.

Why are some days smaller?

Limited slates reduce noise and enforce discipline. Volume is not the goal.

What happens after 5:00 PM ET?

Only plays may be updated. Narrative and dashboard lock at publish.

Responsible Gambling Disclaimer

Please be aware that gambling involves risk and should be considered a form of entertainment. It should not be relied upon as a source of income. Ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek advice if necessary. Participation should be moderate and controlled.

At BrownBagBets, while we provide insights and strategies, we do not guarantee winnings and cannot be held responsible for losses resulting from gambling activities. We encourage all members to gamble responsibly and within their means.

Our Approach to Bankroll Management

We advocate for a strategic approach to betting with our innovative bankroll management techniques. Our aim is to help gamblers make informed decisions and extend their playtime and enjoyment. Remember, the smartest bettors always know when to stop.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, help is available. Contact the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.

Jack Pocorobba