Curve Starting to Bend: 5–3–1 and a Big Weekend Ahead
March is a portfolio, not a weekend. Every November rep feeds our tournament model—pace, shot quality, and lineup volatility—so this countdown keeps us focused on inputs, not vibes.
International edges take time: squad continuity, travel loads, rest windows, and market habits by confederation. This tracker keeps us collecting the right signals now so we’re fully priced by summer.
A 5–3–1 night is exactly what we needed to start bending the curve in the right direction.
We’re sitting at 55% of the starting bankroll with the most important weekend of November in front of us.
This weekend matters because volume and variance converge—more games, more edges, more ways to express a view.
It mattered last weekend too; we didn’t hit then, which is why today–Sunday carries real weight for the month.
Time is tightening, but there’s still enough runway to let a disciplined card do real work.
We did miss the largest stake again—the Canadiens—echoing the Buffalo sting from the night prior; big stakes magnify variance when they miss.
The signal: NCAA Basketball is waking up, and recent wins there show better closes and cleaner read-throughs.
We’ll lean into those spots, stay price-honest on NHL/NBA, and let the weekend’s slate give us the scale we need.
We never fire blindly; we follow the indicators, size to the bankroll, and accept that not every shot falls—only that un-taken shots never can.
That discipline won September and October, and it’s why our YTD ledger is still net positive—month over moment, process over panic.
Performance Dashboard — November (Live)
Updated with 11/20 results (5–3–1)Yesterday’s Results — Nov 20
Audit trail| Matchup | Pick | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bills at Texans NFL | Texans +6 -105 | 3% | WIN |
| Bills at Texans NFL Prop | Nick Chubb Over 20.5 Rush Yds -115 | 3% | LOSS |
| Bills at Texans NFL Total | Under 44.5 -120 | 3% | WIN |
| UIC at High Point NCAAB | High Point -8.5 -115 | 4% | WIN |
| Tarleton St at Rice NCAAB | Rice ML -150 | 3% | LOSS |
| Capitals at Canadiens NHL | Canadiens ML -125 | 6% | LOSS |
| Kraken at Blackhawks NHL | Blackhawks +1 -175 | 3% | PUSH |
| Kings at Sharks NHL | Sharks +1.5 -155 | 3% | WIN |
| Kings at Grizzlies NBA | Grizzlies ML -130 | 3% | WIN |
Today’s Plays
Updated Card — late adds notedLate-month note: as bankroll dips and calendar shortens, our bankroll intelligence allows slight stake expansion on highest-rated signals. We’re also back to Buffalo with conviction—don’t be alarmed by the 3–6% stakes; they’re earned by indicators, not emotion.
NCAA Football
AnchorHawai‘i at UNLV — UNLV ML -140
NHL
Return to Buffalo + one price spotBlackhawks at Sabres — Sabres -1.5 +150 Back to Buffalo
Hurricanes at Jets — Jets ML +105
NBA
Two props + one side + one spreadPacers at Cavaliers — Evan Mobley Over 8.5 Rebounds -135
Heat at Bulls — Jaime Jaquez Jr. Over 12.5 Rebs+Ast -125
Pelicans at Mavericks — Mavericks ML -155
Thunder at Jazz — Jazz +16.5 -110
NCAA Basketball
Three spotsCoastal Carolina at Western Illinois — Coastal Carolina ML -145
Georgia at Xavier — Georgia -9.5 -110
Kansas State at Nebraska — Nebraska ML -110
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