Transparency Pays: Six Straight Winners & 141% Roll

BrownBagBets Daily Card — Monday, October 13, 2025

Six straight green days. We harvest the month—one disciplined slate at a time.

Updated: 2:45 PM ET Bankroll: 141%

MTD ledger current through games of 10/12

Today’s Story

Sunday made it six straight winning days for the BrownBagBets crew. Over fifty tickets in that stretch, the ledger keeps printing because the size fits the edge. Yesterday was classic B3: we finished 7–8 across fifteen, yet our 3% anchors went 2–0 while the dings came from 1% probes. That’s the dividend mindset—play the month, not the mood.

Tonight it’s Monday Night Football steering the ship, with NLCS Game 1 and a couple of NHL looks rounding the card. This post has been updated at 2:45 PM ET with newly cleared edges. Receipts posted; discipline intact.

Yesterday’s Results — 10/12

Grade: 7–8 (15 plays)

Broncos vs Jets (London)

Broncos -6.5 (-118)LOSS2%

Broncos vs Jets — Prop

Breece Hall O26.5 Rec (-115)LOSS2%

Rams @ Ravens

Ravens TT Under 18.5 (-112)WIN2%

Cowboys @ Panthers

Panthers TT Over 23.5 (-109)WIN2%

Cardinals @ Colts — Prop

Marvin Harrison Jr O51.5 Rec (-135)LOSS1%

Chargers @ Dolphins

Under 44.5 (-120)LOSS2%

Dolphins +4.5 (-112)WIN2%

Browns @ Steelers

Steelers -5.5 (-123)WIN3%

Jaylen Warren U48.5 Rush (-130)LOSS1%

Patriots @ Saints — Prop

Rhamondre Stevenson TD (+110)LOSS1%

Titans @ Raiders

Raiders TT Under 23.5 (-118)WIN2%

Titans +5 (-130)LOSS1%

Bengals @ Packers

Bengals +14.5 (-115)WIN2%

Mike Gesicki O18.5 Rec (-125)LOSS2%

Lions @ Chiefs

Chiefs -2.5 (-110)WIN3%

October Results To-Date (updated thru 10/12)

Overview

Bankroll Start 100% → 141%

Record 65–54–3(+7–8 yesterday)

141%

Bankroll progress

By Sport

MLB18–10

NFL18–18

NCAAF22–13–2

EPL2–3–1

UCL3–3

La Liga0–2

NHL3–4

By Market Type

Spread29–16–3

Moneyline15–11

Totals14–8

Props7–15

Results by Wager % (thru 10/12)

5% plays2–0

Unchanged

4% plays5–5–1

Unchanged

3% plays25–9–1

(+2–0 on 10/12)

2% plays28–24

(+5–4 on 10/12)

1% plays5–16

(0–4 on 10/12)

Today’s Picks (card updated 2:45 PM ET)

Buffalo Bills at Atlanta Falcons

Posted in morning session

Wager 3%

Market & Price Bills -3.5 (-125)

Projected Outcome: Buffalo’s median win margin clears 3 with enough frequency to justify -3.5 at this price tier.

Model & Metrics

Early-down efficiency edge, pressure rate delta, explosive differential → Bills.

Wagering Logic

3% as a top-card side; fine at -3.5 ≤ -125. We avoid -4 unless price improves materially.

Evidence Stack

• Scripting success + QB/OC continuity.
• Falcons’ PROE vs Bills’ coverage shell is a negative matchup.
• Red-zone TD rate regression favors Buffalo.

Market Notes

• Key number 3: we don’t chase above -3.5 without price relief.

Confidence: 4/5 Transparency: single-book snapshot

Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders

Added at 2:45 PM ET

NEW Wager 3%

Market & Price Commanders -4.5 (-130)

Projected Outcome: Washington’s drive success + pass-rush edge support 5–7 pt median margin.

Model & Metrics

Pressure rate vs QB under heat; offensive success on early downs; special-teams net field position.

Wagering Logic

3% at -4.5; we prefer avoiding -5.5 unless price ≤ -110. Would buy to -4 only if ≤ -140.

Evidence Stack

• Defensive front mismatch → sustained late-down leverage.
• QB turnover-worthy rate differential favors Washington.
• Home situational bump on short rest cycle.

Market Notes

• Key band 4–6 points; don’t chase steam above -5.5.

Confidence: 3/5

Dodgers @ Brewers — NLCS Game 1

Added at 2:45 PM ET

NEW Wager 4%

Market & Price Brewers +1.5 (-130)

Projected Outcome: Run-prevention edge + bullpen freshness support one-run cover paths at strong price.

Model & Metrics

Pitch-to-contact fit in home park; leverage pen usage; platoon advantages in late innings.

Wagering Logic

4% as a premium RL entry; we value stability in G1 volatility. Prefer ≤ -135.

Evidence Stack

• Top-tier run prevention at home.
• Late-inning matchups favor MIL pen splits.
• Game-one environment suppresses aggression → tighter margins.

Market Notes

• Alt +2.5 only if price ≤ -170; otherwise hold +1.5.

Confidence: 4/5

Red Wings @ Maple Leafs

Added at 2:45 PM ET

NEW Wager 2%

Market & Price Toronto -1.5 (+155)

Projected Outcome: Leafs’ top-six chance quality creates multi-goal win paths at plus money.

Model & Metrics

xGF share + PP threat vs opponent PK; goalie matchup acceptable at current price.

Wagering Logic

2% as a price-driven puckline; pass if drops below +140.

Evidence Stack

• Top-line finishing vs mid-tier defense.
• Special teams tilt toward TOR.
• Home ice last change boosts matchup control.

Market Notes

• Consider small hedge with live ML if early xG swings against.

Confidence: 3/5

Blues @ Canucks

Added at 2:45 PM ET

NEW Wager 3%

Market & Price Blues ML (+105)

Projected Outcome: Even-strength shot quality and crease play give STL a live road coin-flip at plus money.

Model & Metrics

Goaltending stability + 5v5 high-danger suppression; matchup value vs VAN rush chances.

Wagering Logic

3% moneyline at +105 or better; reduce to 2% if market hits -105.

Evidence Stack

• Road performance vs cycle teams holds up.
• Faceoff + DZ exits mitigate VAN forecheck pressure.
• Penalty discipline trend keeps STL 5v5 heavy.

Market Notes

• Look for +108 to +112 outliers pre-puck drop.

Confidence: 3/5

Bankroll Tracker

139%

Current position relative to starting October roll.

FAQ

How do we size bets?

Units are expressed as % of bankroll (1–5%). Edge strength, volatility, and liquidity drive size. We don’t chase wins; we accumulate them.

Why did we win with a 7–8 slate?

Positioning. Our 3% anchors went 2–0 while most losses were 1% probes. The ledger is built on sizing discipline, not hit rate alone.

Do you update the card?

Yes—this post shows the 2:45 PM ET review. Any additions/price moves are logged the same day so the MTD record remains auditable.

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