Protecting the Roll: Light Slate, Same Discipline

BrownBagBets Daily Card — Tuesday, October 14, 2025

Protect the roll. Play the prices. Win the month.

Updated: 1:45 PM ET Bankroll: 139%

MTD ledger current through games of 10/13

Today’s Story

We took a 2–3 step back on Monday — the kind of day our sizing is built to absorb. Cost to the roll: about 2%, and we’re still parked at 139% of our October start. Tonight’s slate is lighter on volume and heavier on selectivity: one early NHL edge on the board this morning, with the afternoon review elevating a few more prices to the card. The mission doesn’t change — protect the bankroll and keep the month compounding.

Yesterday’s Results — 10/13

Grade: 2–3 (5 plays)

Bills @ Falcons

Bills -3.5 (-125)LOSS3%

Bears @ Commanders

Commanders -4.5 (-130)LOSS3%

Dodgers @ Brewers — NLCS G1

Brewers +1.5 (-130)WIN4%

Red Wings @ Maple Leafs

Toronto -1.5 (+155)LOSS2%

Blues @ Canucks

Blues ML (+105)WIN3%

October Results To-Date (updated thru 10/13)

Overview

BankrollStart 100% → 139%

Record67–57–3(+2–3 on 10/13)

Bankroll progress

By Sport

MLB19–10

NFL18–20

NCAAF22–13–2

EPL2–3–1

UCL3–3

La Liga0–2

NHL4–5

By Market Type

Spread30–19–3

Moneyline16–11

Totals14–8

Props7–15

Results by Wager % (thru 10/13)

5% plays2–0

4% plays6–5–1

3% plays26–11–1

2% plays28–25

1% plays5–16

Today’s Picks (card updated 1:45 PM ET)

Edmonton Oilers at New York Rangers

Added at 1:45 PM ET

NEWWager 4%

Market & PriceRangers ML (+115)

Projected Outcome: Goalie form + 5v5 chance quality and special teams tilt give NYR a live home dog profile.

Model & Metrics

xGF share at even strength, PP vs PK differential, and DZ exit efficiency ≈ edge NYR.

Wagering Logic

4% at +115 or better as a premium ML; reduce to 3% if market compresses to +105.

Evidence Stack

• Home last-change → favorable top-line matchups.
• Goaltending delta vs opponent current form.
• High-danger suppression trend last 3 games.

Confidence: 4/5

Seattle Kraken at Montreal Canadiens

Posted in morning session

Wager 3%

Market & PriceCanadiens ML (-160)

Projected Outcome: Habs’ 5v5 chance quality and home-ice control lean win paths at current price.

Model & Metrics

xGF share, PP threat vs SEA PK, and crease play grade favor MTL.

Wagering Logic

3% ML; fine to -165. Past -175, trim to 2%.

Evidence Stack

• Top-six finishing vs SEA pairings.
• Faceoff + DZ exits → sustained zone time.
• Goaltending stability vs SEA shot profile.

Confidence: 3/5

Minnesota Wild at Dallas Stars

Added at 1:45 PM ET

NEWWager 3%

Market & PriceStars -1 (-136)

Projected Outcome: Dallas edge at 5v5 + PP threat supports -1 spread with frequent push protection.

Model & Metrics

Rush defense vs MIN + xGA suppression at home; goalie matchup acceptable.

Wagering Logic

3% at -136; avoid -1.5 unless ≥ +130. If market drops to -1 (-145), hold sizing.

Evidence Stack

• Top line controlled entries vs Wild.
• Special teams edge → leverage late.
• Home ice last change.

Confidence: 3/5

Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers — NLCS Game 2

Added at 1:45 PM ET

NEWWager 3% & 1%

Market & PriceBrewers +1.5 (-160)  •  Brewers ML (+105)

Projected Outcome: Home run-prevention + bullpen leverage point to tight scoring bands; RL stability with small ML kicker.

Model & Metrics

Pitch-to-contact fit in park, platoon edges late, pen freshness relative to LAD usage in G1.

Wagering Logic

3% on +1.5 for stability; 1% ML at +105 for ceiling. RL playable to -165; ML fine down to +100.

Evidence Stack

• Strong home run-prevention track.
• Matchup splits vs LAD late-inning arms.
• Game 2 volatility favors RL exposure.

Confidence: 4/5 (RL) • 2/5 (ML)

Bankroll Tracker

Current position: 139% of starting October roll.

FAQ

Why fewer plays today?

Edge quality > quantity. Lighter slates protect the roll and keep our month compounding.

How do you size units?

Each pick shows a % of bankroll (1–5%). Stronger edges and more stable markets get the larger sizes.

When do you add plays?

We post an early look, then elevate more after the afternoon review. All additions are timestamped on this card.

© BrownBagBets — Play sharp. Protect roll. Win the month.