Protecting the Roll: Light Slate, Same Discipline

BrownBagBets Daily Card — Tuesday, October 14, 2025

Discipline over noise. We play the month, slate by slate.

Bankroll: 139% MTD current thru 10/13

Card opens this morning; check back by 4:00 PM ET for adds.

Today’s Story

We didn’t love a 2–3 Monday, but that’s why we size our edges — the slip cost just ~2% and the roll still sits at 139% of our October start. Lighter slate tonight, and that’s fine: NHL is our focus while we countdown to the return of NBA and NCAA Hoops, when volume naturally scales. Early review flagged one official edge; as always, we’ll run a second pass later for potential additions.

Yesterday’s Results — 10/13

Grade: 2–3 (5 plays)

Bills @ Falcons

Bills -3.5 (-125)LOSS3%

Bears @ Commanders

Commanders -4.5 (-130)LOSS3%

Dodgers @ Brewers — NLCS G1

Brewers +1.5 (-130)WIN4%

Red Wings @ Maple Leafs

Toronto -1.5 (+155)LOSS2%

Blues @ Canucks

Blues ML (+105)WIN3%

October Results To-Date (updated thru 10/13)

Overview

Bankroll Start 100% → 139%

Record 67–57–3(+2–3 on 10/13)

139%

Bankroll progress

By Sport

MLB19–10

NFL18–20

NCAAF22–13–2

EPL2–3–1

UCL3–3

La Liga0–2

NHL4–5

By Market Type

Spread30–19–3

Moneyline16–11

Totals14–8

Props7–15

Results by Wager % (thru 10/13)

5% plays2–0

Unchanged

4% plays6–5–1

(+1–0 on 10/13)

3% plays26–11–1

(+1–2 on 10/13)

2% plays28–25

(0–1 on 10/13)

1% plays5–16

Unchanged

Today’s Picks

Seattle Kraken at Montreal Canadiens

Early review — additional plays may be added after second pass

Wager 3%

Market & Price Canadiens ML (-160)

Projected Outcome: Montreal’s 5v5 chance quality and home-ice last change tilt the median toward Habs victory.

Model & Metrics

xGF share, PP threat vs SEA PK, and goalie matchup grading keep Montreal favored at current price.

Wagering Logic

3% moneyline; we prefer ≤ -165. Reduce if market drifts past -175.

Evidence Stack

• Top-six finishing vs SEA defensive pairings.
• Home ice → matchup control on lines 1/2.
• Goaltending stability vs SEA shot profile.

Confidence: 3/5

Bankroll Tracker

139%

Current position relative to starting October roll.

FAQ

Why post on lighter slates?

Because the discipline is the edge. When volume is low, we protect the roll and only play prices that clear our thresholds.

When are adds posted?

We run a second review most afternoons (target ~4:00 PM ET). Any adds are appended to this card and reflected in the MTD ledger.

How are units sized?

Each pick shows a % of bankroll (1–5%). Edge quality, market liquidity, and variance inform sizing.

© BrownBagBets — Play sharp. Protect roll. Win the month.

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