Receipts Kept: 11–4–1, 139% Roll, NFL London Headliner

BrownBagBets Daily Card — Sunday, October 12, 2025

Volume when it pays, patience when it doesn’t — we play to win the month.

Bankroll: 139% MTD Updated thru 10/11

Today’s Story

Yesterday was that signature BrownBagBets swing day — the one every month seems to hand us when patience and volume finally cash the dividend. We went 11–4–1 across sixteen tickets, and the bankroll clicked up to a sturdy 139%. That’s one big step toward our seventh winning month of the year.

Our game has never changed: win the month. Investors buy dividend stocks to harvest a check; we stack vetted wagers to harvest a month. We manage a starting bankroll daily, adapt our indicators by sport and season, and play the slate the numbers allow — sometimes two edges, sometimes twenty. We don’t hide the work: picks posted, results graded, receipts kept.

If you’re new here, ride with us. If you’ve been here, you know the drill. And keep an eye out — our proprietary betting journal, the same workflow we use to track edges and stay disciplined, drops before year-end.

Yesterday’s Results (10/11)

Grade: 11–4–1 over 16 plays

Cubs @ Brewers (G5)

Brewers ML -130WIN3%

UCLA @ Michigan State

UCLA +7.5 (-100)WIN3%

Pitt @ #25 Florida State

Pitt +10.5 (-125)WIN2%

#8 Alabama @ #14 Missouri

Alabama -3 (-110)PUSH4%

Stanford @ SMU

SMU -17.5 (-125)WIN2%

Wake Forest @ Oregon State

Wake Forest ML -135WIN3%

Nebraska @ Maryland

Maryland +7 (-115)WIN3%

#6 Oklahoma @ Texas

Under 44.5 (-110)WIN2%

Texas ML (-105)WIN3%

Air Force @ UNLV

Air Force +7 (-110)WIN3%

#22 Iowa State @ Colorado

Iowa State ML (-135)LOSS2%

#10 Georgia @ Auburn

Georgia -3.5 (-110)WIN4%

Clemson @ Boston College

Clemson -14 (-110)WIN3%

South Carolina @ #11 LSU

South Carolina +9.5 (-115)LOSS2%

San Diego State @ Nevada

Nevada +7.5 (-115)LOSS3%

Utah State @ Hawaii

Utah State ML (-115)LOSS2%

October Results To-Date (updated thru 10/11)

Overview

Bankroll Start 100% → 139%

Record 58–46–3(+11–4–1 yesterday)

Last 16: 11–4–1

Bankroll progress 139%

By Sport

MLB18–10

NFL11–10

NCAAF22–13–2

EPL2–3–1

UCL3–3

La Liga0–2

NHL3–4

By Market Type

Spread25–14–3

Moneyline15–11

Totals11–7

Props7–10

Results by Wager % (thru 10/11)

5% plays2–0

Unchanged

4% plays5–5–1

(+1–0–1 yesterday)

3% plays23–9–1

(+7–1 yesterday)

2% plays23–20

(+3–3 yesterday)

1% plays5–12

Unchanged

Today’s Picks

Broncos vs Jets (London)

2% Wager

Market & PriceBroncos -6.5 (-118)

Projected Outcome: Denver margin covers standard -6.5 more often than price implies.

Model & Metrics

Rating gap + travel adjustment favors Denver at key numbers.

Wagering Logic

Prefer the side over alts; 2% keeps exposure balanced in a neutral-site spot.

Market Notes

• Neutral site variance → cap stake at 2%.

Confidence: 3/5Transparency: price shopped

Breece Hall O26.5 Receiving

2% Wager

Market & PriceOver 26.5 (-115)

Projected Outcome: Scripted checkdowns + screen usage create catch-and-run paths to 30+.

Model & Metrics

Role-based receiving share; prop variance warrants modest stake.

Wagering Logic

2% on standard number; avoid ladders unless price improves.

Market Notes

• Playable to -120 at 26.5; above that we pass.

Confidence: 3/5

Rams @ Ravens

2% Wager

Market & PriceRavens TT Under 18.5 (-112)

Projected Outcome: Lower possession count + red-zone resistance compresses total to sub-18 median.

Model & Metrics

Pace/downshift indicators and FG-heavy tendencies reduce ceiling.

Wagering Logic

2% sizing; prefer 18.5 at ≤ -120. Below 18 we pass.

Market Notes

• Team totals swing on TD variance—stick to the number, not the logo.

Confidence: 3/5

Cowboys @ Panthers

2% Wager

Market & PricePanthers TT Over 23.5 (-109)

Projected Outcome: Pace + YAC routes support 24–27 band.

Model & Metrics

Drive success rate and early-down pass rate lift scoring floor.

Wagering Logic

2% exposure; fade if market pushes to 24.5 at worse than even money.

Market Notes

• Key number 24—mind the juice.

Confidence: 3/5

Cardinals @ Colts

1% Wager

Market & PriceMarvin Harrison Jr O51.5 Rec (-135)

Projected Outcome: Volume + intermediate aDOT supports 55+ median.

Model & Metrics

Role stability + target share trend; juice tax keeps stake light.

Wagering Logic

1% due to price; prefer a better number if it appears.

Market Notes

• Consider live add if early usage pops.

Confidence: 2/5

Chargers @ Dolphins

2% + 2%

TotalsUnder 44.5 (-120)

SideDolphins +4.5 (-112)

Projected Outcome: Compressed pace keeps total mid-40s; number gives Dolphins cover paths.

Model & Metrics

Pace and pressure indicators lean under; small number edge on +4.5 vs median.

Wagering Logic

Split the angle: 2% on total, 2% on side to diversify outcomes.

Market Notes

• Totals sensitivity to explosives → avoid chasing steam.

Confidence: 3/5

Browns @ Steelers

3% & 1%

SideSteelers -5.5 (-123)

PropJaylen Warren U48.5 Rush (-130)

Projected Outcome: Steelers defense sets script; Warren usage tracks under median.

Wagering Logic

3% on side as the primary; 1% prop for modest correlation.

Market Notes

• Prefer -5 or better; above -6 we reduce stake.

Confidence: 3/5

Patriots @ Saints

1% Wager

Anytime TDRhamondre Stevenson +110

Projected Outcome: Red-zone role gives fair plus-money shot.

Wagering Logic

1% punt at plus money; no ladders.

Market Notes

• Shop; TD markets vary widely by book.

Confidence: 2/5

Titans @ Raiders

2% & 1%

Raiders Team TotalUnder 23.5 (-118)

SideTitans +5 (-130)

Projected Outcome: Raiders ceiling capped; Titans keep it within one score.

Wagering Logic

Asymmetric exposure: larger on TT under; sprinkle the dog at +5.

Market Notes

• Key totals bands: 20–24. Numbers matter more than narratives.

Confidence: 3/5

Bengals @ Packers

2% & 2%

SideBengals +14.5 (-115)

PropMike Gesicki O18.5 Rec (-125)

Projected Outcome: Number grabs back-door equity; Gesicki usage supports 20+ yards median.

Wagering Logic

Split to hedge script extremes; both kept at 2%.

Market Notes

• TE usage spikes vs certain coverages—watch pregame inactives.

Confidence: 3/5

Lions @ Chiefs

3% Wager

Market & PriceChiefs -2.5 (-110)

Projected Outcome: Chiefs win by a FG or more often enough to justify standard juice.

Wagering Logic

3% as a top card side; avoid -3 unless even money.

Market Notes

• Key number 3—respect the tax at -3.

Confidence: 3/5

Bankroll Tracker

Current position: 139% of starting month roll.

FAQ

How do we size bets?

Units are expressed as percent of bankroll (1–5%). Edge, volatility, and market liquidity drive size. We win the month by protecting downside and letting good slates run.

Why so many plays some days?

We don’t force volume; we follow edges. Some slates offer two good numbers, others twenty. The journal + indicators decide, not vibes.

Do you track everything publicly?

Yes. Picks posted, results graded, receipts kept. Our end-of-month objective is transparency and positive MTD. You’ll see the ledger inside each Daily Card.

© BrownBagBets — Play sharp. Protect roll. Win the month.

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