Saturdays Top Plays and Wagers

BrownBagBets Daily Card — Saturday, October 11, 2025

Data-first edges for a packed slate: CFB core, MLB Game 5, late-night value.

Bankroll: 117% Daily Card

Saturday Story

2–1 Friday • +5%

Our model did its job last night: small exposure took the hit, conviction carried the wins, and the stack ticked up to 117% for October. Today we stretch the board with a disciplined CFB core (sides & totals at key numbers), one more MLB Game 5 leverage spot, and late-window opportunities for chasing closing line value. If you’re new here, we publish buy-to notes, stake sizing, and correlation flags so you can mirror the process—not just the picks. Let’s keep the tempo high and the variance managed. Happy Saturday.

Yesterday’s Results — Fri 10/10

Tigers at Mariners — Game 5

✅ WIN

Pick

Mariners ML (+110)

Wager

3%

#24 South Florida at North Texas

❌ LOSS

Pick

North Texas ML (-115)

Wager

2%

Rutgers at Washington

✅ WIN

Pick

Under 60.5 (-110)

Wager

4%

Day: 2–1 • Bankroll: +5%

Totals updated thru 10/10 ↓

October Results To-Date (updated thru 10/10)

Overview Thru 10/10

Bankroll

Start 100% → 117%

Record

47–42–2

By Sport

MLB 17–10 • NFL 11–10 • NCAAF 12–9–1 • EPL 2–3–1 • UCL 3–3 • La Liga 0–2 • NHL 3–4

0%Bankroll progress117%

Streak: W2

By Market Type Thru 10/10

Spread

18–12–2

Moneyline

12–9

Totals

10–7

Props

7–10

Results by Wager % Thru 10/10

5% plays

2–0

4% plays

4–5

3% plays

16–8–1

2% plays

20–17

1% plays

5–12

Picks — Saturday, Oct 11

#8 Alabama at #14 Missouri

Wager 4%

Market & Price

BAMA -3 (-112)

Time

12:00p ET

Notes

Buy to -3 (-115). Avoid -3.5 at full stake.

Pittsburgh at #25 Florida State

Wager 2%

Market & Price

PITT +10.5 (-125)

Time

12:00p ET

Notes

Edge on early-down success & havoc. Hold +10.5; trim below +10.

Stanford at SMU

Wager 2%

Market & Price

SMU -17.5 (-125)

Time

12:00p ET

Notes

Prefer -17; big numbers → modest stake.

UCLA at Michigan State

Wager 3%

Market & Price

UCLA +7.5 (-110)

Time

12:00p ET

Notes

Key number hook; at +7 reduce to 2%.

Air Force at UNLV

Wager 3%

Market & Price

AFA +7 (-110)

Time

3:30p ET

Notes

Full stake at +7 only; at +6.5 trim to 2%.

#6 Oklahoma at Texas — Total

Wager 2%

Market & Price

Under 44.5 (-110)

Time

3:30p ET

Notes

Buy down to 44; at 43.5 reduce.

#6 Oklahoma at Texas — Side

Wager 3%

Market & Price

Texas ML (-105)

Time

3:30p ET

Notes

Hold to -115; beyond that consider -1/-1.5.

Wake Forest at Oregon State

Wager 3%

Market & Price

Wake Forest ML (-135)

Time

3:30p ET

#22 Iowa State at Colorado

Wager 2%

Market & Price

Iowa State ML (-135)

Time

3:30p ET

Nebraska at Maryland

Wager 3%

Market & Price

Maryland +7 (-115)

Time

3:30p ET

Notes

Key number 7; don’t chase +6.5 at full stake.

#10 Georgia at Auburn

Wager 4%

Market & Price

UGA -3.5 (-110)

Time

7:30p ET

Clemson at Boston College

Wager 3%

Market & Price

Clemson -14 (-110)

Time

7:30p ET

South Carolina at #11 LSU

Wager 2%

Market & Price

South Carolina +9.5 (-114)

Time

7:45p ET

Cubs at Brewers — Game 5

Wager 3%

Market & Price

Brewers ML (-130)

Time

8:08p ET

San Diego State at Nevada

Wager 3%

Market & Price

SDSU -7 (-115)

Time

10:30p ET

Notes

If -6.5 appears ≤ -120, okay to add 0.5–1%.

Utah State at Hawaii

Wager 2%

Market & Price

Utah State ML (-120)

Time

Sun 12:00a ET

Bankroll

Current

117% of October starting bankroll

0%Utilization tracker117%

Standard risk: 1–4% per play. 5% reserved for outsized edges only.

FAQ

How we grade & report

We grade to closing rules where applicable. Push = stake returned. Player props void on DNP unless book rules differ.

Stake sizing & buy-to

Each pick shows stake % and buy-to notes. If you see worse than our threshold, scale down or skip.

Exposure & correlation

When side/total correlate (e.g., Texas ML + Under), we size conservatively to manage aggregate variance.

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