Smart Money Friday: Riding Momentum Into Game 5 and the Weekend

BrownBagBets Daily Card — Friday, October 10, 2025

Story-driven slate: CFB angles, Game 5 in Seattle, and a bankroll pop.

Bankroll: 112% Daily Card

October Momentum

6–3–1 last night

What a night for sports—and what a night for returns for the BrownBagBets community. A 6-3-1 night propelled us into the weekend. Last night added roughly +12% to the stack, putting the monthly bankroll at 112%. It was a poster child for our bankroll intelligence: misses stayed small (1% plays), higher-conviction positions carried the day. NHL is dark tonight, so we’ve poured that time into a tight Friday card and prep for a massive Saturday.

Yesterday’s Results

Louisiana Tech at Kennesaw State

❌ LOSS

Pick

Louisiana Tech -5.5 (-110)

Wager

2%

East Carolina at Tulane

✅ WIN

Pick

Tulane -6.5 (-110)

Wager

2%

Southern Miss at Georgia Southern

➖ PUSH

Pick

Georgia Southern +3 (+100)

Wager

3%

Eagles at Giants

❌ LOSS

Pick

Saquon Barkley TD (-160)

Wager

1%

Eagles at Giants

✅ WIN

Pick

A.J. Brown over 4.5 receptions (-140)

Wager

2%

NCAAF Prop

❌ LOSS

Pick

Cam Skattebo TD (+150)

Wager

1%

NCAAF Prop

✅ WIN

Pick

Jaxon Dart under 177.5 pass yds (-115)

Wager

2%

Giants +7.5 vs Eagles

✅ WIN

Pick

Giants +7.5 (-115)

Wager

2%

Phillies at Dodgers

✅ WIN

Pick

Dodgers ML (-125)

Wager

3%

Flames at Canucks

✅ WIN

Pick

Canucks -1.5 (+130)

Wager

3%

October Results To-Date (updated thru 10/09)

Overview Thru 10/09

Bankroll

Start 100% → 112%

Record

45–41–2

By Sport

MLB 16–10 • NFL 11–10 • NCAAF 11–8–1 • EPL 2–3–1 • UCL 3–3 • La Liga 0–2 • NHL 3–4

0%Bankroll progress112%

By Market Type Thru 10/09

Spread

18–12–2

Moneyline

11–8

Totals

9–7

Props

7–10

Results by Wager % Thru 10/09

5% plays

2–0

4% plays

3–5

3% plays

15–8–1

2% plays

20–16

1% plays

5–12

Picks — Friday, Oct 10

Tigers at Mariners — Game 5

Wager 3%

Market & Price

Mariners ML (+110)

Projected Outcome

Seattle edges late; bullpen edge shows.

Market Notes

Hold through +100; smaller stake if it flips to favorite.

#24 South Florida at North Texas

Wager 2%

Market & Price

North Texas ML (-115)

Projected Outcome

Mean Green at home with slight success rate edge.

Market Notes

Buy up to -125; beyond that, reduce to 1%.

Rutgers at Washington

Wager 4%

Market & Price

Under 60.5 (-110)

Projected Outcome

Game tilts toward field position and early script control; 54–57 total median.

Market Notes

Buy down to 59.5; at 59 or lower, trim to 3%.

Bankroll

Current

112% of October starting bankroll

0%Utilization tracker112%

Target risk per play: 1–4% (listed on each pick). Larger plays reserved for outsized edges.

FAQ

How we grade results

We use closing lines where relevant and standard book rules. Pushes return stake. Player props void on DNP unless noted by book.

Stake sizing

Plays are sized 1–5% of current bankroll based on edge, variance, and correlation to existing exposure.

Shopping lines

Prices shown are widely available at publish. If you see worse than our “buy-to” note, consider reducing stake or skipping.

© BrownBagBets — Transparent cards, disciplined staking, daily edges.

Next up: Saturday mega-card