Blueprint Over Buzz: Thanksgiving Window, 63% Bankroll
March is a portfolio, not a weekend. Every November rep feeds our tournament model—pace, shot quality, and lineup volatility—so this keeps us focused on inputs, not vibes.
International edges take time: squad continuity, travel loads, rest windows, and confederation market habits. This rail keeps our pre-tournament signals organized.
Thanksgiving. Before lines and ledgers, we’re grateful for the chance to build something honest in a noisy space. We’re grateful for a process that tells the truth even when it hurts, because truth is the only road back. We’re grateful for the grind—the tape, the data, the late pivots—that turns variance into lessons and lessons into edges. And we’re grateful for everyone who reads this and demands receipts.
We’re grateful for the boys who started BrownBagBets, for the stubborn belief that cash-flow beats ego, and for the courage to publish the blueprint—not just the highlight reel. We’re grateful for the team behind the curtain who keeps the indicators updated, the stakes rational, and the daily card clean.
Most of all we’re grateful for this community—sharp, curious, patient. You hold us accountable and you make us better. The next chapter is bigger than any single day: more clarity, more transparency, more shared wins.
Discipline and emotional control are the whole trick. We’ll protect price, respect sizing, and keep our hands off anything the indicators don’t bless. Today is a check-back day—expect adds before 1:00 PM ET if (and only if) the numbers cooperate.
Performance Dashboard — November (Live)
Updated with 11/26 (4–5)Results — November 26
Audit trail| League | Matchup | Pick | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCL Total | Monaco at PAFOS | Under 2.5 +130 | 3% | LOSS |
| UCL | Tottenham at PSG | PSG -1.5 +110 | 4% | WIN |
| UCL | Bayern at Arsenal | Bayern +0.25 -105 | 3% | LOSS |
| UCL Total | Bayern at Arsenal | Over 2.5 -135 | 3% | WIN |
| NCAAB | USC at Arizona State | Arizona State +5.5 -120 | 5% | LOSS |
| NCAAB | Wagner at Manhattan | Manhattan ML -165 | 3% | LOSS |
| NHL | Blues at Devils | Devils ML -140 | 3% | WIN |
| NBA | Pistons at Celtics | Celtics +3.5 -115 | 3% | WIN |
| NBA | Rockets at Warriors | Warriors ML -130 | 3% | LOSS |
Today’s Plays — Thanksgiving Window (Early)
Additional entries possible by 1:00 PM ETNFL — Thanksgiving Day
Props + sides sized to indicatorsPackers at Lions — Jahmyr Gibbs over 4.5 receptions -125
Packers at Lions — Christian Watson over 51.5 receiving -125
Chiefs at Cowboys — Mahomes over 24.5 completions -110
Chiefs -3 -110
Bengals at Ravens — Mark Andrews anytime TD +105
Bengals at Ravens — Lamar under 267.5 pass+rush -114
Bengals at Ravens — Under 52 -110
NCAA Basketball
Early tipRichmond at Furman — Richmond ML -175
Heads up: We’ll add only where indicators converge and price holds. Enjoy your day—ledger over noise.
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Please be aware that gambling involves risk and should be considered a form of entertainment. It should not be relied upon as a source of income. Ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek advice if necessary. Participation should be moderate and controlled.
At BrownBagBets, while we provide insights and strategies, we do not guarantee winnings and cannot be held responsible for losses resulting from gambling activities. We encourage all members to gamble responsibly and within their means.
Our Approach to Bankroll Management
We advocate for a strategic approach to betting with our innovative bankroll management techniques. Our aim is to help gamblers make informed decisions and extend their playtime and enjoyment. Remember, the smartest bettors always know when to stop.
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