NCAAB Spark, UCL Steady: 66% Bankroll into the Holiday Slate
March is a portfolio, not a weekend. Every November rep feeds our tournament model—pace, shot quality, and lineup volatility—so this keeps us focused on inputs, not vibes.
International edges take time: squad continuity, travel loads, rest windows, and confederation market habits. This rail keeps our pre-tournament signals organized.
Last night was the response we needed—measured, not manic. We split the Champions League slate but protected price integrity, and where the signals truly converged (hello, Lakers 9% ticket) we executed cleanly. The real surge came from college hoops, where the read is finally lining up with this season’s pace/shot-quality realities. A couple of misses keep us humble, but the ledger moved in the right direction and the process stayed intact. Bankroll checks in at 66% this morning, and the story ahead is about compounding honest edges, not chasing headlines. Between now and month-end we expect volume to build: Thanksgiving football, a crowded NBA board, and an NCAAB market that’s settling into form. That means more opportunity, but also stricter filters—we’ll keep sizing tethered to the indicators and pass on anything that drifts from price. If you’ve been riding with us all month, you know the drill: we don’t cap “number of plays,” we cap bad entries. Expect disciplined aggression, real audit trails, and late adds only when the math deserves them.
Performance Dashboard — November (Live)
Updated with 11/25 (10–5)Results — November 25
Audit trail| League | Matchup | Pick | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCL | Galatasaray at Union SG | Galatasaray ML -135 | 5% | LOSS |
| UCL Total | Villarreal at Borussia Dortmund | Over 2.5 -150 | 4% | WIN |
| UCL | Newcastle at Marseille | OM +0.25 -120 | 3% | WIN |
| UCL | Newcastle at Marseille | OM ML +205 | 2% | WIN |
| UCL | Barcelona at Chelsea | Barcelona +0.25 -110 | 4% | LOSS |
| UCL Total | Barcelona at Chelsea | Over 3.5 +100 | 4% | LOSS |
| NCAAB | Syracuse at Kansas | Kansas ML -150 | 3% | WIN |
| NCAAB | Seton Hall at USC | Seton Hall +6.5 -111 | 6% | WIN |
| NCAAB | Kansas State at #25 Indiana | Indiana -8.5 -110 | 3% | WIN |
| NCAAB | New Mexico State at UC Irvine | NMSU +3.5 -110 | 4% | WIN |
| NCAAB | Ole Miss at Iowa | Iowa -4.5 -110 | 5% | WIN |
| NHL | Stars at Oilers | Oilers ML -140 | 4% | LOSS |
| NBA | Hawks at Wizards | Hawks -10 -110 | 5% | LOSS |
| NBA | Magic at 76ers | Magic -2.5 -110 | 5% | WIN |
| NBA | Clippers at Lakers | Lakers -6 | 9% | WIN |
Today’s Plays — Final Snapshot (2:25 PM ET)
All updates applied • Sizing tethered to bankroll (66%)Champions League
Price acceptance + model confirmsMonaco at PAFOS — Under 2.5 +130
Tottenham at PSG — PSG -1.5 +110
Bayern at Arsenal — Bayern +0.25 -105
Bayern at Arsenal — Over 2.5 -135
NCAA Basketball
Selective spreads + MLUSC at Arizona State — Arizona State +5.5 -120
Wagner at Manhattan — Manhattan ML -165
NHL
Single-entry MLBlues at Devils — Devils ML -140
NBA
Two sides addedPistons at Celtics — Celtics +3.5 -115
Rockets at Warriors — Warriors ML -130
Note: Any further adds will follow indicator convergence + price acceptance; otherwise, this is the final board for today.
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