134% Bankroll and Eyes on the Prize

Written By Jack Pocorobba
BrownBagBets Daily Card — Wednesday, October 15, 2025
Midmonth check-in: protect the roll, let the right prices work.
Updated: 1:00 PM ET Bankroll: 134%
MTD ledger current through games of 10/14
Today’s Story
Another 2–3 slip isn’t a crisis — it’s why we size our edges. At the halfway mark the roll holds a sturdy 134% of the October start across 130+ graded tickets. Lighter volume, tighter standards — our models locked two confidence plays early, and this 1:00 PM ET review elevates two more.
Today’s Picks (card updated 1:00 PM ET)
Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners — ALCS Game
Added at 1:00 PM ET
NEWWager 4% + 1%
Market & PriceMariners ML (–130)
Projected Outcome: Run-prevention edge + bullpen leverage give SEA solid home equity at this price.
Model & Metrics
Starter fit to park, platoon advantage late, and pen freshness vs TOR usage in G1.
Wagering Logic
4% premium ML; playable to –135. Avoid chasing beyond –140.
Evidence Stack
  • Home run prevention trend.
  • Late-inning matchup edge vs RHP relievers.
  • Defensive efficiency lifts tight games.
Prop Play
Player PropVladimir Guerrero Jr. HR (+360)1%
Power metrics vs LHP starter + launch-angle profile fit ballpark geometry.
Confidence: 2/5
Confidence: 4/5 (ML)
Chicago Blackhawks at St. Louis Blues
Confidence play
Wager 2%
Market & PriceBlues –1 (–130)
Projected Outcome: STL 5v5 edge + special-teams lift support push protection at –1.
Model & Metrics
xGF share, HDCF suppression vs CHI rush; home last change aids matchups.
Wagering Logic
2% at –130; avoid –1.5 unless ≥ +140. ML add only if ≤ –145.
Evidence Stack
  • Controlled entries vs CHI.
  • Faceoff + DZ exits stabilize leads.
  • Goalie form acceptable at price.
Confidence: 3/5
Calgary Flames at Utah Mammoth
Confidence play
Wager 2%
Market & PriceMammoth –1 (–115)
Projected Outcome: Utah even-strength edge + transition game → frequent one-goal win paths with push protection.
Model & Metrics
Neutral-zone turnovers + PP vs PK tilt; matchup edges lines 1/2.
Wagering Logic
2% at –115; avoid –1.5 unless ≥ +135. Respect steam past –125.
Evidence Stack
  • Rush-defense mismatch favors Utah.
  • Goaltending delta small but positive.
  • Discipline trend limits CGY PP volume.
Confidence: 3/5
Delaware at Jacksonville State
Added at 1:00 PM ET
NEWWager 2%
Market & PriceDelaware –2.5 (–115)
Projected Outcome: Efficiency gap on early downs + red-zone finishing favor Delaware by a field goal or more.
Model & Metrics
Success rate differential, explosive prevention, special-teams field position.
Wagering Logic
2% spread; playable to –3 (–105). Avoid –3.5 without price relief.
Evidence Stack
  • SR+ on scripted drives.
  • Defensive havoc vs pass pro.
  • Kicking edge narrows variance.
Confidence: 3/5
Bankroll Tracker
134%
Current position relative to October start.
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Jack Pocorobba
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Protecting the Roll: Light Slate, Same Discipline