Stung, Not Shaken: The Bounce Back Starts Today
Last night is one we’d love to run back—4–13 across the board is ugly by any bettor’s standard. It stings, but it’s not an emergency: it’s November 12th, not November 30th, and the month is won by the totality of disciplined decisions, not one bad Tuesday. We’ve been here before over years of running this system, and the bounce backs have always come from the same place: slow the noise, tighten the reads, and let price—not pride—drive action.
The biggest miss was foreseeable: we pushed NCAAB volume too early. In Week 1, public models lean hard on last season’s data, and that bias can break edges until this year’s rotations, pace, and whistle stabilize. So we’re shelving those auto-model leans for now, relying only on approved indicators that clear our internal thresholds and reflect this season’s lines, not last season’s reputation. We own it, we learn, and we adjust—exactly how this engine is designed to work.
Bankroll sits at 68% this morning—lower than we want, fully transparent—and the plan is the same as ever: rebuild through controlled sizing, not hero swings. The bright spot is the NBA read (3–1 and our largest position landed), so we’ll lean where the signal is clean, keep NHL/NCAAB on a shorter leash, and earn our way back—because the bounce back will be better.
Performance Dashboard — November (Live)
Updated with yesterday’s 4–13 slateYesterday’s Results
Audit trail| Matchup | Pick | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kent State at Akron NCAAF | Akron -6.5 -115 | 3% | LOSS |
| Capitals at Hurricanes NHL | Hurricanes -1.5 +160 | 3% | LOSS |
| Stars at Senators NHL | Senators ML +100 | 2% | LOSS |
| Blue Jackets at Kraken NHL | Kraken ML -120 | 3% | LOSS |
| Ducks at Avalanche NHL | Ducks +1.5 -110 | 3% | LOSS |
| Grizzlies at Knicks NBA | Knicks -9 -125 | 3% | WIN |
| Celtics at 76ers NBA | 76ers ML -115 | 4% | WIN |
| Pacers at Jazz NBA | Jazz ML +125 | 2% | WIN |
| Nuggets at Kings NBA Total | Over 242.5 -115 | 2% | LOSS |
| Iona at UMKC NCAAB | UMKC +5.5 -120 | 2% | LOSS |
| FAMU at UCF NCAAB | FAMU +23.5 -115 | 2% | LOSS |
| Florida State at Florida NCAAB | Florida -17 -135 | 2% | LOSS |
| Kentucky at Louisville NCAAB | Kentucky +6.5 -110 | 2% | LOSS |
| SFA at Rice NCAAB | Rice ML -145 | 2% | LOSS |
| Murray St at SMU NCAAB | Murray St +10.5 -115 | 2% | LOSS |
| UC Riverside at New Mexico NCAAB | UC Riverside +19.5 -105 | 3% | WIN |
| Western Illinois at CS Bakersfield NCAAB | Western Illinois +7 -110 | 3% | LOSS |
Today’s Picks
Set for 10:30 AM ET — bounce-back mindset, controlled sizingNHL
Price before prideSabres at Mammoth — Mammoth -1 -120
NBA
Signal is clean — lean hereBulls at Pistons — Pistons -2.5 -110
Wizards at Rockets — Reed Sheppard o11.5 Pts -110
NCAA Basketball
Shorter leash until data stabilizesBrown at Boston U. — Boston U. ML -165
Minnesota at Missouri — Missouri -5.5 -120
Long Beach St at Pacific — Pacific -9.5 -110
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