No Secrets, Just Signals — Friday’s Card with Full Indicators

Written By Jack Pocorobba
BrownBagBets Daily Card — Friday, Oct 3, 2025
Posted 8:30 AM ET

What a night of win-or-go-home MLB Wild Card games! We went 2–1 there and 4–4 overall across eight plays. Bankrolls remain in the green at 104%. MLB pauses for travel today; we’ll work one EPL match and a focused CFB slate. The first full weekend of October is ahead — the job right now is to keep stacking disciplined days.

Every pick we make ties to identified indicators — not vibes. We size wagers on signal strength, price, and portfolio fit, and we’ll share those indicators with each pick so you can see our logic. No secrets, no black boxes: just transparent, repeatable process. That’s Bankroll Intelligence.

Yesterday’s Results — Thu, Oct 2
4–4
Sam Houston St @ NMSU
NMSU +3 -125 (2%)
WIN
49ers @ Rams
Jake Tonges O25.5 Rec -155 (1%)
WIN
49ers @ Rams
Davante Adams TD +105 (1%)
LOSS
49ers @ Rams
Kyren Williams O67.5 Rush -115 (2%)
LOSS
49ers @ Rams
Under 46.5 -130 (3%)
WIN
Tigers @ Guardians
Guardians ML -125 (4%)
LOSS
Padres @ Cubs
Cubs +1.5 -190 (2%)
WIN
Red Sox @ Yankees
Yankees -1 -110 (3%)
WIN
October Results To-Date
Updated thru 10/2
Bankroll
Start 100% → 104%
Record
12–8–0
Streak: Push
By Sport
MLB 7–2
NFL 2–2
NCAAF 1–0
EPL —
UCL 3–3
La Liga —
By Market Type
Spread 4–0
Moneyline 3–2
Total 3–1
Props 4–3
Results by Wager %
4%: 1–0
3%: 4–0
2%: 4–3
1%: 4–4
Today’s Plays — Indicators Included
EPL • NCAAF
Fulham @ AFC Bournemouth
2%
Pick: Bournemouth ML +100
Form: 5-match unbeaten run Injuries: Fulham FWDs downgrades Market hold vs public
West Virginia @ #23 BYU
4%
Pick: BYU -18.5 -125
QB injuries (WVU) Travel/late kickoff penalty Def eff edge (BYU)
FAQ
Process & Price Discipline
Why are we strict about laying −200, but played +1.5 at −190?
Price is the play. In MLB postseason, totals trend low (6.5–7.5), bullpens shorten, and leverage innings reduce blowouts. When our projected cover rate clears the −190 break-even (~65.5%) with cushion and portfolio fit, +1.5 can be fair. In regular season or other sports (EPL spreads, NFL sides), the variance profile and market tax differ — so −190/−200 often has negative edge. Context decides.
Why publish indicators under each pick?
Because process scales. Seeing the why behind price, timing, and matchup helps you bet like an operator, not a spectator.
Will there be midday adds?
Only if fresh indicators clear our gates (number, price, timing). If they do, we’ll tag them and update the card.

BrownBagBets — indicators over ego, price over narrative, month over day. Stay disciplined.

Responsible Gambling Disclaimer

Please be aware that gambling involves risk and should be considered a form of entertainment. It should not be relied upon as a source of income. Ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek advice if necessary. Participation should be moderate and controlled.

At BrownBagBets, while we provide insights and strategies, we do not guarantee winnings and cannot be held responsible for losses resulting from gambling activities. We encourage all members to gamble responsibly and within their means.

Our Approach to Bankroll Management

We advocate for a strategic approach to betting with our innovative bankroll management techniques. Our aim is to help gamblers make informed decisions and extend their playtime and enjoyment. Remember, the smartest bettors always know when to stop.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, help is available. Contact the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.

Jack Pocorobba
Next

October Kicks Off with Discipline and an 8% Gain