No Secrets, Just Signals: How We Build NFL Sunday Plays at BrownBagBets

BrownBagBets Daily Card — Sunday, Oct 5, 2025
Posted 10:30 AM ET

Not the Saturday we wanted, but we’re right back at it — sitting at 94% for October. A full slate awaits: NFL Sunday and MLB playoffs headline the card. The mission doesn’t change: indicators over ego, smart sizing over hot takes.

Yesterday’s Results — Sat, Oct 4
10–11–1
Tottenham @ Leeds
BTTS — Yes (-140) (1%)
WIN
Sunderland @ Man United
Sunderland +1 (+100) (1%)
LOSS
Sunderland @ Man United
Over 2.5 (-140) (1%)
LOSS
West Ham @ Arsenal
Arsenal -2 (+100) (1%)
PUSH
Liverpool @ Chelsea
Pool ML + Over 2.5 (+250) (1%)
LOSS
Valencia @ Girona
Valencia ML (+205) (1%)
LOSS
#22 Illinois @ Purdue
Purdue +8.5 (-125) (2%)
LOSS
Kansas State @ Baylor
K-State +5.5 (3%)
WIN
Army @ UAB
UAB +7.5 (-115) (2%)
LOSS
#14 Iowa St @ Cincinnati
Cincy ML (+100) (2%)
WIN
Wisconsin @ #20 Michigan
Wisconsin +17.5 (-115) (2%)
WIN
Wake Forest @ Va Tech
Virginia Tech (-110) (2%)
WIN
#9 Texas @ Florida
Texas -5 (-115) (4%)
LOSS
Miami (OH) @ N. Illinois
Miami ML (-180) (2%)
WIN
JMU @ Georgia State
Over 53.5 (-115) (2%)
LOSS
#16 Vandy @ #10 Bama
Vandy +12.5 (-115) (2%)
LOSS
Michigan St @ Nebraska
MSU +13 (-115) (2%)
WIN
South Alabama @ Troy
Troy ML (-105) (3%)
WIN
Nevada @ Fresno St
Under 45.5 (-110) (2%)
WIN
Cubs @ Brewers
Brewers ML (-150) (3%)
WIN
Yankees @ Blue Jays
Yankees ML (+105) (4%)
LOSS
Dodgers @ Phillies
Phillies -1.5 (+180) (3%)
LOSS
October Results To-Date
Updated thru 10/4
Bankroll
Start 100% → 94%
Record
23–20–1
Streak: L1
By Sport
MLB 8–4
NFL 2–2
NCAAF 9–6
EPL 2–3–1
UCL 3–3
La Liga 0–1
By Market Type
Spread 8–7–1
Moneyline 8–4
Total 5–3
Props 4–4
Results by Wager %
4%: 1–3
3%: 7–1
2%: 11–7
1%: 5–9
Today’s Plays
NFL • MLB • La Liga
Broncos @ Eagles
3%
Pick: Broncos +4.5 (-115)
Cowboys @ Jets
3%
Pick: Jets +3 (-145)
Cowboys @ Jets
2%
Pick: Jets Team Total Over 22.5 (-120)
Giants @ Saints
1%
Pick: Jaxon Dart TD (+210)
Giants @ Saints
2%
Pick: Saints ML (-120)
Texans @ Ravens
2%
Pick: Ravens Team Total Under 19.5 (+100)
Dolphins @ Panthers
3%
Pick: Panthers +1.5 (-115)
Buccaneers @ Seahawks
2%
Pick: Bucs +3.5 (-110)
Titans @ Cardinals
3%
Pick: Titans Team Total Under 16.5 (-115)
Lions @ Bengals
3%
Pick: Lions Team Total Over 30.5 (-105)
Yankees @ Blue Jays
3%
Pick: Blue Jays +1.5 (-125)
Rayo Vallecano @ Real Sociedad
2%
Pick: Real Sociedad ML (+110)
Bankroll Tracker
94%
October resets monthly. Current = 94% after results through Oct 4.
FAQ
Game Day Notes
Do you add live plays?
Only when fresh indicators clear our gates (number, price, injury confirmations). If we add, the card gets updated and timestamped.
Why so many team-total plays today?
Team totals let us isolate matchup edges (tempo, red-zone rate, injury clusters) without full-game variance or late-game chaos.
What does 94% mean?
We reset to 100% on Oct 1. After Saturday we’re at 94%. The goal is to win the month, not chase any single day.

BrownBagBets — indicators over ego, price over narrative, month over day. Track with us and let the math do the heavy lifting.

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Please be aware that gambling involves risk and should be considered a form of entertainment. It should not be relied upon as a source of income. Ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek advice if necessary. Participation should be moderate and controlled.

At BrownBagBets, while we provide insights and strategies, we do not guarantee winnings and cannot be held responsible for losses resulting from gambling activities. We encourage all members to gamble responsibly and within their means.

Our Approach to Bankroll Management

We advocate for a strategic approach to betting with our innovative bankroll management techniques. Our aim is to help gamblers make informed decisions and extend their playtime and enjoyment. Remember, the smartest bettors always know when to stop.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, help is available. Contact the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.

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October’s First Big Board: Indicators Over Ego, Edges Over Noise