Even Money, Even Sharper: Monday’s MLB & MNF Card

BrownBagBets Daily Card — Monday, Oct 6, 2025

Posted 9:00 AM ET Updated 3:00 PM ET

First full betting weekend of October behind us and we’re back to even — bankroll at 100%. Yesterday’s 7–5 card did its job. Tonight, MNF takes center stage with a couple of MLB playoff edges.

Bonus for the afternoon update: we’ve added late plays with proactive reasoning right on the card for full transparency.

Yesterday’s Results — Sun, Oct 5

7–5

Broncos @ Eagles

Broncos +4.5 -115 (3%)

WIN

Cowboys @ Jets

Jets +3 -145 (3%)

LOSS

Cowboys @ Jets

Jets TT O22.5 -120 (2%)

LOSS

Giants @ Saints

Jaxon Dart TD +210 (1%)

LOSS

Giants @ Saints

Saints ML -120 (2%)

WIN

Texans @ Ravens

Ravens TT U19.5 +100 (2%)

WIN

Dolphins @ Panthers

Panthers +1.5 -115 (3%)

WIN

Buccaneers @ Seahawks

Bucs +3.5 -110 (2%)

WIN

Titans @ Cardinals

Titans TT U16.5 -115 (3%)

LOSS

Lions @ Bengals

Lions TT O30.5 -105 (3%)

WIN

Yankees @ Blue Jays

Blue Jays +1.5 -125 (3%)

WIN

Rayo @ Real Sociedad

Real Sociedad ML +110 (2%)

LOSS

October Results To-Date

Updated thru 10/5

Bankroll

Start 100% → 100%

Record

30–25–1

Streak: W1

By Sport

MLB 9–4
NFL 8–6
NCAAF 9–6
EPL 2–3–1
UCL 3–3
La Liga 0–2

By Market Type

Spread 12–8–1
Moneyline 9–5
Total 7–5
Props 4–5

Results by Wager %

4%: 1–3
3%: 11–3
2%: 14–9
1%: 5–10

Today’s Plays

MNF • MLB Playoffs

Chiefs @ Jaguars

4%

Pick: Jaguars +3.5 (-110)

Chiefs @ Jaguars

3%

Pick: Xavier Worthy O52.5 Rec Yds (-115)

Chiefs @ Jaguars

2%

Pick: Travis Etienne O62.5 Rush Yds (-140)

Chiefs @ Jaguars

3% NEW

Pick: Under 46 (-120)

Why: Jags’ defense has forced 3+ turnovers in 4 straight but KC is far less giveaway-prone and more patient this year. Last week’s 37 on BAL looks more about a poor Ravens D. We project a compressed script vs. a turnover-regressing JAX.

Dodgers @ Phillies

2%

Pick: Phillies +1.5 (-150)

Dodgers @ Phillies

2% NEW

Pick: Phillies ML (+105)

Why: ~10% late money leaning PHI strengthened our +1.5 read; pairing ML (+105) with RL (+1.5) creates a 4% combined exposure with downside cover and live upside in tight bullpen games.

Dodgers @ Phillies

4%

Pick: Over 7.5 (-105)

Cubs @ Brewers

5% NEW

Pick: Over 7.5

Why: Imanaga’s recent form flags (6.51 ERA in Sept; 4 IP in WC start). If CHC fights back, it’s more likely in a run environment than a duel. Our projection pops to 8.4 runs with middle-inning leverage risk on both pens.

Bankroll Tracker

100%

October resets monthly. Current = 100% after results through Oct 5.

FAQ

Game Day Notes

Why pair Phillies +1.5 with ML?

Postseason runlines compress variance. The +1.5 covers tight relief scripts; the ML captures ceiling if our late-money read is right.

Why add Under 46 (MNF) late?

News + market drift improved price. With JAX takeaway rate due to regress and KC’s pace moderated, our total projection dropped under 45.

5% on Cubs–Brewers Over?

Top-tier only when indicators stack: starter form, bullpen leverage, weather/park, and market entry. Today they do.

BrownBagBets — indicators over ego, price over narrative, month over day. Track with us and let the math do the heavy lifting.