Let the Weekend Speak: 2–2 Last Night, 83% Bankroll, Noon ET Adds Coming

🏀 March Madness Countdown • Tip‑Off ETA:  132 days (Mar 17, 2026)

Legacy tracker kept for continuity — we don’t chase days; we prepare for them.

🤝 Community Note

Shoutout to the morning crew for the healthy pushback on obscure UCL sides (especially @analyticalbetting). That dialogue is the edge: you pressure‑test our indicators; we publish the receipts. Drop your alternate numbers in the comments—if your price beats ours and the correlation risk is clean, we’ll highlight it in tomorrow’s ledger.

Yesterday’s Results — Fri, Nov 7

NCAAF — Northwestern at USC

Northwestern +14.5 (−105)

Wager 4%LOSS

NCAAB — McNeese State at Santa Clara

Santa Clara −5 (−130)

Wager 4%WIN

NHL — Wild at Islanders

Islanders ML (−140)

Wager 4%LOSS

NBA — Celtics at Magic

Magic ML (−145)

Wager 4%WIN

Net impact: 2–2 day at uniform 4% stakes; variance contained by design.

Performance Dashboard — November (Live)

Bankroll (start→current)

100% → 83%

Updated with yesterday’s 2–2 slate

33–36–1

MTD Record

47.8%

Win Rate

Law #1: bankroll as oxygen. Law #2: indicators over ego.

By Sport

$1 7–3 $3 $1 2–2 $3 $1 6–6 $3 $1 7–14–1 $3 $1 3–4 $3 $1 4–3 $3 $1 3–2 $3

By Market

$1 11–10 $3 $1 11–14 $3 $1 8–3–1 $3 $1 4–8 $3

YTD Bankroll Tracker — 2025

Jan

82%

Feb

124%

Mar

128%

Apr

147%

May

58%

Jun

52%

Jul

121%

Aug

124%

Sep

171%

Oct

142%

$1 83% $3 83 $5

Month-end review mindset: we celebrate the month, not the moment. 7 of 10 completed periods were net positive.

Today’s Plays — 9:00 AM Update

EPL — Fulham at Everton

Everton ML (+130)

Stake 1%

EPL — Burnley at West Ham

Over 2.5 (+100)

Stake 2%

EPL — Arsenal at Sunderland

Sunderland +1.5 (+105)

Stake 1%

NCAAF — Wagner at Robert Morris

Robert Morris ML (−140)

Stake 3%

NCAAF — BYU at Texas Tech

BYU +12.5 (−120)

Stake 2%

NCAAF — Georgia at Mississippi State

Mississippi State +9.5 (−110)

Stake 4%

NCAAF — Indiana at Penn State

Indiana −14.5 (−110)

Stake 2%

NCAAF — Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan

Eastern Michigan ML (−125)

Stake 5%

NCAAF — Louisiana Tech at Delaware

Louisiana Tech −5.5 (−115)

Stake 3%

NCAAF — Texas A&M at Missouri

Missouri +7 (−110)

Stake 3%

NCAAF — Oregon at Iowa

Oregon −6 (−115)

Stake 2%

NCAAF — Georgia State at Coastal Carolina

Coastal Carolina −7.5 (−105)

Stake 4%

NCAAF — Air Force at San Jose State

Air Force +5.5 (−110)

Stake 3%

NCAAB — Niagara at Binghamton

Binghamton ML (−155)

Stake 2%

NCAAB — San Francisco at Memphis

Memphis ML (−170)

Stake 2%

NCAAB — Pacific at Nevada

Nevada −10.5 (−125)

Stake 4%

NBA — Mavericks at Wizards

Mavericks −3.5 (−125)

Stake 2%

NBA — 2‑Team ML Parlay

76ers ML + Lakers ML (+162)

Stake 3%

NBA — Suns at Clippers

Under 227.5 (−110)

Stake 4%

NHL — Avalanche at Oilers

Oilers ML (+110)

Stake 2%

About the BrownBagBets Laws

Readers keep asking what these “Laws” are. They’re the chapters of our upcoming eBook, BrownBagBets Laws: Betting as Cash Flow. Each law is a repeatable rule we apply in real time—things like Law #6: No Forced Action, Law #4: Small Edges Compound, and Law #9: Correlation Can Kill. Until release, we’ll keep citing the relevant laws so you can see how the framework drives decisions—not vibes.

FAQ

Why share indicator notes today?

We do this proactively when the slate includes lesser-known sides or when followers ask. It speeds up vetting and keeps Law #2 front and center.

How do you size across many leagues?

Correlation and confidence bands drive 1–4% stakes. No martingales. Law #1: bankroll is oxygen.

When is the card final?

We publish a 5:00 PM ET snapshot. Adds/hedges after that are rare and documented next morning.

BrownBagBets • Transparent. Data-first. Process-disciplined. This content is educational and not financial advice.