Discipline Over Drama: A Prop-Heavy Miss, a Managed Drawdown, and Tonight’s Focus

🏀 March Madness Countdown • Tip‑Off ETA:  130 days (Mar 17, 2026)

Legacy tracker kept for continuity — we don’t chase days; we prepare for them.

📅 Friday, Nov 7, 2025 • 10:30 AM ET

BrownBagBets Daily Card

We wore a 4–7 night, and the ledger reflects it—no excuses, just the truth.

A 10–7 TNF finish is exactly the kind of game that squeezes a prop‑heavy sheet, especially when we flagged multiple angles.

The good news: many of those were 1% positions, so the damage was contained by design.

One week into November, the story is discipline over drama—prices first, patience always—and our screen is starting to look like itself again.

Call it Law #8: Price Over Pride from our forthcoming framework: we honor the number, not our ego, and we let the market tell us when to step back in.

This first weekend is a tone‑setter for the month’s P&L; we protect oxygen early so we can press when edges line up later.

For tonight, we’re focused and selective—one MAC 4% dog, a Santa Clara number we like at current price, Isles on the ice, and a measured swing with the Magic.

New here? Our approach comes from the forthcoming eBook BrownBagBets Laws: Betting as Cash Flow (early 2026). Get early access + free worksheets at brownbagbets.com/sign-up.

Yesterday’s Results — Thu, Nov 6

NFL — Raiders at Broncos

Geno Smith over 19.5 completions (−125)

Wager 1%LOSS

NFL — Raiders at Broncos

Courtland Sutton over 57.5 yds (−115)

Wager 1%LOSS

NFL — Raiders at Broncos

RJ Harvey anytime TD (+215)

Wager 1%LOSS

NFL — Raiders at Broncos

Bo Nix under 33.5 pass attempts (−120)

Wager 1%WIN

NFL — Raiders at Broncos

Broncos team total over 26.5 (−110)

Wager 3%LOSS

NFL — Raiders at Broncos

Broncos −8.5 (−115)

Wager 3%LOSS

NCAAB — Omaha at Abilene Christian

Abilene Christian ML (−185)

Wager 2%WIN

NHL — Blues at Sabres

Sabres ML (−130)

Wager 2%LOSS

NHL — Flyers at Predators

Predators ML (−115)

Wager 2%LOSS

NBA — Clippers at Suns

Suns ML (−140)

Wager 3%WIN

NBA — Clippers at Suns

Under 224.5 (−105)

Wager 2%WIN

Net impact (risk model): roughly −7% day; 1% props limited damage while two 3% positions missed.

Performance Dashboard — November (Live)

Bankroll (start→current)

100% → 82%

Updated with yesterday’s 4–7 slate

31–34–1

MTD Record

47.7%

Win Rate

We manage the month like a P&L; size and selection follow the indicators, not the ego.

By Sport

UCL (UEFA)

7–3

EPL

2–2

NCAAF

6–5

NFL

7–14–1

NHL

3–3

NBA

3–3

NCAA Basketball

2–2

By Market

Spread

10–9

Moneyline

10–13

Totals

8–3–1

Props

4–8

YTD Bankroll Tracker — 2025

Jan

82%

Feb

124%

Mar

128%

Apr

147%

May

58%

Jun

52%

Jul

121%

Aug

124%

Sep

171%

Oct

142%

Nov (MTD)

82%

Month-end review mindset: we celebrate the month, not the moment. 7 of 10 completed periods were net positive.

Today’s Plays — Early Card

NCAAF — Northwestern at USC

Northwestern +14.5 (−105)

Stake 4%

NCAAB — McNeese State at Santa Clara

Santa Clara −5 (−130)

Stake 4%

NHL — Wild at Islanders

Islanders ML (−140)

Stake 4%

NBA — Celtics at Magic

Magic ML (−145)

Stake 4%

Final snapshot posts by 5:00 PM ET. If the market runs through our numbers, we pass—no forced action.

FAQ

What matters more—units or bankroll?

Bankroll is the monthly oxygen. Units per bet are small by design (1–4%); we measure success by the 30‑day P&L, not single tickets.

Why so many TNF props yesterday?

Signals stacked on a single game. We didn’t dictate volume; we followed the aggregate indicators and sized with the bankroll model.

Where do the “Laws” come from?

From our upcoming eBook, BrownBagBets Laws: Betting as Cash Flow (early 2026). Get early access at brownbagbets.com/sign-up.

BrownBagBets • Transparent. Data-first. Process-disciplined. This content is educational and not financial advice.