Win the Month, Not the Moment: 77% Bankroll and Today’s NFL Roadmap

🏀 March Madness Countdown • Tip‑Off ETA:  128 days (Mar 17, 2026)
Legacy tracker kept for continuity — we don’t chase days; we prepare for them.
📅 Sunday, Nov 9, 2025 • 7:30 AM ET
$1
🕒 Next pricing sweep: 12:30 PM ET

We went 9–11 yesterday and the bankroll sits at 77% of the November start—no spin, just the ledger.

This isn’t a crisis—it’s the shape of variance. We don’t try to win Saturdays; we try to win November. The framework forces us to pass when price runs and to size when edges clear, so cold pockets slow us but don’t sink us. The month is a statement, not a single ticket.

Volume has a job: more qualified swings mean our edge realizes faster, and the grind accrues tier credits that convert to tangible value—effectively cash—over a season.

Because we’re a chunk below 100%, today’s decisions matter more for trajectory than for dopamine. We’ll prioritize clean numbers, avoid correlated traps, and let the bankroll model dictate size.

Big NFL day ahead—card below.

Yesterday’s Results · Performance Dashboard · Today’s Plays · Our Laws

Yesterday’s Results — Sat, Nov 8

EPL — Fulham at Everton

Everton ML (+130)
Wager 1%WIN

EPL — Burnley at West Ham

Over 2.5 (+100)
Wager 2%WIN

EPL — Arsenal at Sunderland

Sunderland +1.5 (+105)
Wager 1%WIN

NCAAF — Wagner at Robert Morris

Robert Morris ML (−140)
Wager 3%LOSS

NCAAF — BYU at Texas Tech

BYU +12.5 (−120)
Wager 2%LOSS

NCAAF — Georgia at Mississippi State

Mississippi State +9.5 (−110)
Wager 4%LOSS

NCAAF — Indiana at Penn State

Indiana −14.5 (−110)
Wager 2%LOSS

NCAAF — Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan

Eastern Michigan ML (−125)
Wager 5%WIN

NCAAF — Louisiana Tech at Delaware

Louisiana Tech −5.5 (−115)
Wager 3%LOSS

NCAAF — Texas A&M at Missouri

Missouri +7 (−110)
Wager 3%LOSS

NCAAF — Oregon at Iowa

Oregon −6 (−115)
Wager 2%LOSS

NCAAF — Georgia State at Coastal Carolina

Coastal Carolina −7.5 (−105)
Wager 4%WIN

NCAAF — Air Force at San Jose State

Air Force +5.5 (−110)
Wager 3%WIN

NCAAB — Niagara at Binghamton

Binghamton ML (−155)
Wager 2%LOSS

NCAAB — San Francisco at Memphis

Memphis ML (−170)
Wager 2%WIN

NCAAB — Pacific at Nevada

Nevada −10.5 (−125)
Wager 4%LOSS

NBA — Mavericks at Wizards

Mavericks −3.5 (−125)
Wager 2%WIN

NBA — 2‑Team Moneyline Parlay

76ers ML + Lakers ML (+162)
Wager 3%LOSS

NBA — Suns at Clippers

Under 227.5 (−110)
Wager 4%WIN

NHL — Avalanche at Oilers

Oilers ML (+110)
Wager 2%LOSS
Net impact: 9–11 day across 20 positions.

Performance Dashboard — November (Live)

Bankroll (start→current)
100% → 77%
Updated with yesterday’s 9–11 slate
42–47–1
MTD Record
47.2%
Win Rate
We manage the month like a P&L; size and selection follow the indicators, not the ego.
By Sport
UCL (UEFA)
7–3
EPL
5–2
NCAAF
9–13
NFL
7–14–1
NHL
3–5
NBA
6–4
NCAA Basketball
4–4
By Market
Spread
15–17
Moneyline
14–18
Totals
10–3–1
Props
4–8

Today’s Plays — Early Card

EPL — Bournemouth at Aston Villa

Aston Villa ML (+125)
Stake 2%

EPL — Newcastle at Brentford

Brentford +0.5 (−125)
Stake 2%

EPL — Newcastle at Brentford

Over 2.5 Goals (−120)
Stake 2%

NFL — Falcons at Colts (Prop)

Kyle Pitts over 44.5 receiving yards (−115)
Stake 3%

NFL — Ravens at Vikings

Ravens −3.5 (−115)
Stake 4%

NFL — Ravens at Vikings

Under 49.5 (−115)
Stake 3%

NFL — Patriots at Buccaneers (Prop)

Tez Johnson over 43.5 receiving yards (−115)
Stake 3%

NFL — Jaguars at Texans (Prop)

Nico Collins over 5.5 receptions (+105)
Stake 3%

NFL — Browns at Jets

Jets +2.5 (−110)
Stake 3%

NFL — Browns at Jets

Browns team total under 20.5 (−110)
Stake 3%

NFL — Saints at Panthers

Panthers −4.5 (−115)
Stake 3%

NFL — Giants at Bears

Under 47.5 (−120)
Stake 3%

NFL — Bills at Dolphins (Prop)

Dalton Kincaid over 41.5 receiving yards (−135)
Stake 4%

NFL — Bills at Dolphins

Dolphins +9.5 (−108)
Stake 2%

NFL — Cardinals at Seahawks

Cardinals +7 (−115)
Stake 3%

NFL — Rams at 49ers

49ers +6 (−110)
Stake 2%

NFL — Lions at Commanders

Under 49.5 (−110)
Stake 3%

NFL — Steelers at Chargers

Chargers −2.5 (−118)
Stake 5%

NFL — Steelers at Chargers

Under 44.5 (−110)
Stake 3%
We’ll note any material adds/hedges in an afternoon update if prices move through thresholds.

FAQ

Why isn’t 9–11 a big deal?
Small stakes (1–5%), disciplined selection, and correlation checks mean a rough slate dents the month, not the bankroll. We aim to win November, not any single day.
Why so many plays some days?
Qualified volume helps the edge realize and accumulates tier credits—value we treat as cash-equivalent—that offset friction over time.
Where does your framework come from?
Our forthcoming eBook, BrownBagBets Laws: Betting as Cash Flow (early 2026). We’ll keep rotating principles so you see the approach in action.
Early access: BrownBagBets Laws — Betting as Cash Flow (early 2026)
Get the framework, worksheets, and bankroll templates free.
Get early access
BrownBagBets • Transparent. Data-first. Process-disciplined. This content is educational and not financial advice.

Responsible Gambling Disclaimer

Please be aware that gambling involves risk and should be considered a form of entertainment. It should not be relied upon as a source of income. Ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek advice if necessary. Participation should be moderate and controlled.

At BrownBagBets, while we provide insights and strategies, we do not guarantee winnings and cannot be held responsible for losses resulting from gambling activities. We encourage all members to gamble responsibly and within their means.

Our Approach to Bankroll Management

We advocate for a strategic approach to betting with our innovative bankroll management techniques. Our aim is to help gamblers make informed decisions and extend their playtime and enjoyment. Remember, the smartest bettors always know when to stop.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, help is available. Contact the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.

Next
Next

Let the Weekend Speak: 2–2 Last Night, 83% Bankroll, Noon ET Adds Coming