MLB Divisional Series & TNF Betting Guide – BrownBagBets Thursday Card

BrownBagBets Daily Card — Thursday, Oct 9, 2025

Posted 9:00 AM ET

Another “lose the card, win the bankroll” kind of night. We went 3–4 on paper, but because the wins lived in the right price windows and the 5% anchor cashed, we booked a +2% gain and reset October to a clean 100%.

This is why BrownBagBets exists: we don’t chase a perfect day; we build a profitable month. Price over vibes. Indicators over ego. Volume when the board earns it, patience when it doesn’t.

Tonight is loaded — TNF (Eagles–Giants), two MLB Division Series games, a handful of CFB edges, and NHL back in full. As always, every play appears because multiple signals align, and we’ll happily explain the reasoning when it matters most.

Yesterday’s Results — Wed, Oct 8

3–4Bankroll +2%

Mariners @ Tigers (G4)

Over 8.5 (-105) (3%)

WIN

Brewers @ Cubs (G4)

Cubs ML (-115) (5%)

WIN

Blue Jays @ Yankees (G4)

Yankees ML (-180) (2%)

LOSS

Phillies @ Dodgers

A. Nola O8.5 Outs (-130) (2%)

LOSS

Canadiens @ Maple Leafs

Maccelli 0.5+ Pt (+140) (2%)

WIN

Bruins @ Capitals

Capitals -1 (-120) (2%)

LOSS

Kings @ Golden Knights

Knights -1 (-125) (3%)

LOSS

October Results To-Date

Updated thru 10/8

Bankroll

Start 100% → 100%

Record

39–38–1

Streak: W1

By Sport

MLB 15–10
NFL 9–9
NCAAF 9–6
EPL 2–3–1
UCL 3–3
La Liga 0–2
NHL 2–4

By Market Type

Spread 16–11–1
Moneyline 10–8
Total 9–7
Props 5–8

Results by Wager %

5%: 2–0
4%: 3–5
3%: 13–8
2%: 16–15
1%: 5–10

Today’s Plays

TNF • MLB DS • CFB • NHL

Louisiana Tech @ Kennesaw State

2%

Pick: Louisiana Tech -5.5 (-110)

East Carolina @ Tulane

2%

Pick: Tulane -6.5 (-110)

Southern Miss @ Georgia Southern

3%

Pick: Georgia Southern +3 (+100)

Eagles @ Giants — TNF

1%2%2%2%

Pick: Saquon Barkley Anytime TD (-160) (1%)

Pick: A.J. Brown Over 4.5 Receptions (-140) (2%)

Pick: Jaxon Dart Under 177.5 Passing Yds (-115) (2%)

Pick: Giants +7.5 (-115) (2%)

Phillies @ Dodgers — DS

3%

Pick: Dodgers ML (-125)

Flames @ Canucks

3%

Pick: Canucks -1.5 (+130)

Bankroll Tracker

100%

October reset at 100%. Current = 100% after Oct 8 results.

FAQ

Process & Sizing

How did a 3–4 night still win?

We anchored with a 5% ML winner and kept wins in positive/efficient price ranges. Portfolio math > raw record.

Why so many smaller NFL props?

Props are priced edges with lower correlation risk to sides/totals. We size them smaller (1–2%) to protect downside.

Do you still like -1 in NHL?

Yes. Early-season scoring + empty-net variance make -1 a smarter exposure profile than -1.5 unless the price is exceptional.

BrownBagBets — indicators over ego, price over narrative, month over day. Check back before 4 PM ET for any add-ons if new signals flash.