New Tracker, Same Edge: 165% into NBA Opening Night

New Tracker, Same Edge: 163% into NBA Opening Night

BrownBagBets Daily Card — Tuesday, October 21, 2025

Updated: 10:30 AM ET Bankroll: 163% YTD Tracker Live

MTD ledger current through graded plays of 10/20

Today’s Story

After a profitable weekend, Monday trimmed a little — no harm, no foul. Our indicators actually flagged more plays than we prefer today, but the discipline is the discipline: we play the edges the model certifies and we size them 1–5% of bankroll. Confidence is tempered given the short-term variance, and we’ll let it play out transparently as always. Thanks again for the feedback on showcasing long-horizon results — the expanded tracker below is for you. DM @bbbetsinsider or email info@brownbagbets.com anytime.

2025 Bankroll Growth — Month-End Performance

End-of-month bankroll vs a 100% start. Green = winning month; red = drawdown.

Jan82%

Feb124%

Mar128%

Apr147%

May58%

Jun52%

Jul121%

Aug124%

Sep171%

October (LIVE)

In ProgressCloses 10/31

“Monthly income” vs compounding (illustrative): Cash-out: withdraw anything above 100% each month (Jan–Sep on $1,000 ≈ $2,150 income; principal $1,000). • Compound: roll forward (≈ $1,480 end of Sep, +48%). • 2024 full-year 117% ≈ finish near 217% of start under compounding.

Yesterday’s Results — 10/20

Grade: 5–8

EPL / La Liga

West Ham DNB (–135)LOSS2%

Alavés ML (+130)LOSS1%

MLB — ALCS G7

Blue Jays ML (–120)WIN2%

Over 7.5 (–105)LOSS2%

MNF — Bucs @ Lions

Otton O36.5 (–135)WIN1%

Mayfield O242.5 (–115)LOSS2%

Goff O259.5 (–125)LOSS2%

Buccaneers +6 (–105)LOSS2%

MNF — Texans @ Seahawks

Chubb U38.5 Rush (–140)WIN1%

Under 41.5 (–114)LOSS2%

Seahawks ML (–165)WIN2%

NHL

Rangers ML (–130)LOSS1%

Canadiens ML (–150)WIN2%

October Results To-Date (updated thru 10/20)

Overview

BankrollStart 100% → 163%

Record111–90–5(after 10/20 grading)

163%

Bankroll progress

By Sport

MLB27–16

NFL33–32

NCAAF32–17–3

EPL5–6–1

UCL3–3

La Liga0–4

NHL13–10–1

By Market Type

Spread45–30–5

Moneyline32–23

Totals21–13

Props14–19

Today’s Picks (posted 10:30 AM ET)

Pafos FC at Kairat Almaty

Europe — Moneyline

Wager 1%

Market & PricePafos ML (+165)

Projected Outcome: Poor Kairat trend vs Pafos chance creation gives us a live dog.

Model & Metrics

Goal diff, shots on target rate, rest delta.

Olympiakos Piraeus at FC Barcelona

UCL — Total

Wager 2%

Market & PriceOver 3.5 (+100)

Projected Outcome: Attacking depth and game-state volatility lift totals band.

Model & Metrics

xG pace, finishing form, rotation impact.

Inter at Union Saint-Gilloise

UCL — Moneyline

Wager 2%

Market & PriceInter ML (–130)

Projected Outcome: Quality + late control support road ML.

Model & Metrics

xThreat, field tilt, shot suppression.

Borussia Dortmund at FC Copenhagen

UCL — Moneyline & Total

Wager 2% & 1%

MLDortmund ML (–125)

TotalOver 2.5 (–120)

Projected Outcome: Pace + finishing create dual-angle value.

Model & Metrics

xG/shot, transition speed, concessions.

Napoli at PSV

UCL — Asian Handicap

Wager 1%

Market & PricePSV +0.25 (–120)

Projected Outcome: Home form + draw protection = positive EV.

Model & Metrics

Home xPts, shot map, injury-adjusted ratings.

Atletico Madrid at Arsenal

UCL — Spread & Total

Wager 2% & 1%

SpreadMadrid +0.5 (+135)

TotalUnder 2.5 (–105)

Projected Outcome: Two elite defenses tilt to tight margins and low totals.

Houston Rockets at Oklahoma City Thunder

NBA — Total & PRA Prop

Wager 3% & 2%

TotalUnder 227.5

PropReed Sheppard O13.5 PRA (–120)

Championship defense depresses pace; bench guard role supports PRA.

Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Lakers

NBA — Spread & Points Prop

Wager 3% & 2%

SpreadLakers +3 (–115)

PropRui Hachimura O12.5 Pts (+100)

Early rotations favor home stability; wing usage up.

New Jersey Devils at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL — Moneyline

Wager 2%

Market & PriceDevils ML (+105)

5v5 chance share + schedule context = short-dog value.

Columbus Blue Jackets at Dallas Stars

NHL — Spread

Wager 2%

Market & PriceStars -1 (–130)

Home control + goalie edge build push-protected lanes.

Bankroll Tracker

163%

Position vs October start.

FAQ

Why play everything the model flags?

Because edge disappears fast. We size confidence 1–5% to manage risk across many small edges, letting the month do the work.

What changed today?

We added a permanent YTD month-end tracker so newcomers can see the long-run results at a glance.

How do I reach you?

DM @bbbetsinsider on Instagram or email info@brownbagbets.com. Want to support? Join the family.

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