Process > Outcome: 163% Bankroll and Full Transparency
BrownBagBets Daily Card — Wednesday, October 22, 2025
UCL continues • NBA night two • NHL on ice — receipts stay public.
Updated: 8:40 AM ET Bankroll: 163% YTD Tracker Live
MTD ledger current through graded plays of 10/21 Today’s Story
A 7–7 split is exactly that: variance doing its thing while the bankroll sits steady at 163%. Yesterday’s Champions League edges carried their weight — a welcome sign as we keep improving soccer returns. We can’t lean on MLB forever once summer fades, and the crew loves to clown each other about which sport “needs work.” The jokes stay in-house; the data stays public — and the data says we crushed July, August, and September because we crushed baseball. First NBA night gave us a double-OT landmine (never kind to totals), but the process doesn’t care. It just keeps sizing edges, posting receipts, and moving forward.
2025 Bankroll Growth — Month-End Performance
End-of-month bankroll vs a 100% start. Green = winning month; red = drawdown.
Jan82%
Feb124%
Mar128%
Apr147%
May58%
Jun52%
Jul121%
Aug124%
Sep171%
October (LIVE)
In ProgressCloses 10/31
“Monthly income” vs compounding — why your comp result looked lower, and how to maximize:
• Compounding multiplies every month (good and bad). A couple of deep drawdowns (May 58%, Jun 52%) pull down the product.
• To improve: (1) cap downside months (e.g., stop-loss at 85–90%); (2) use fractional Kelly (≤ 0.5×) to reduce volatility; (3) adopt a hybrid policy: cash out anything >120% monthly, reinvest the rest; (4) scale risk down when hit-rate wobbles (rolling 7–14 day).
• 2024 full-year 117% ≈ finish near 217% of start under compounding. Exact October math posts at month-end.
• Compounding multiplies every month (good and bad). A couple of deep drawdowns (May 58%, Jun 52%) pull down the product.
• To improve: (1) cap downside months (e.g., stop-loss at 85–90%); (2) use fractional Kelly (≤ 0.5×) to reduce volatility; (3) adopt a hybrid policy: cash out anything >120% monthly, reinvest the rest; (4) scale risk down when hit-rate wobbles (rolling 7–14 day).
• 2024 full-year 117% ≈ finish near 217% of start under compounding. Exact October math posts at month-end.
Yesterday’s Results — 10/21
Grade: 7–7 (14 plays)
UCL
Over 3.5 (Barça/Olympiakos)WIN2%
Inter ML (–130)WIN2%
Dortmund ML (–125)WIN2%
Over 2.5 (DOR/CPH)WIN1%
PSV +0.25 (–120)WIN1%
Atleti +0.5 (+135)LOSS2%
Under 2.5 (ARS/ATL)LOSS1%
Pafos ML (+165)LOSS1%
NBA
Rockets @ Thunder Under 227.5LOSS3%
Reed Sheppard O13.5 PRAWIN2%
Lakers +3LOSS3%
Rui Hachimura O12.5 PtsLOSS2%
NHL
Devils ML (+105)WIN2%
Stars -1 (–130)LOSS2%
October Results To-Date (updated thru 10/21)
Overview
BankrollStart 100% → 163%
Record118–97–5(+7–7 on 10/21)
163%
Bankroll progress
By Sport
MLB27–16🔥 hot
NFL33–32
NCAAF32–17–3🔥 hot
EPL5–6–1
UCL8–5
La Liga0–4
NHL14–11–1
NBA1–3
By Market Type
Spread46–32–5
Moneyline35–24
Totals23–15
Props15–20
Today’s Picks (posted 8:40 AM ET)
Qarabag FK at Athletic Club
Europe — SpreadMarket & PriceAthletic -1.5 (–105)
Projected Outcome: Home shot volume + chance quality point to multi-goal separation.
Tottenham at AS Monaco
Europe — Asian HandicapMarket & PriceMonaco +0.25 (–115)
Projected Outcome: Draw protection on a live home dog with transition edge.
Ajax at Chelsea
Europe — SpreadMarket & PriceChelsea -1.5 (–110)
Projected Outcome: Talent delta + set-piece edge create cover paths.
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Liverpool
Europe — TotalMarket & PriceOver 3.5 (–130)
Projected Outcome: Press vs press = tempo and error-driven scoring environment.
Miami Heat at Orlando Magic
NBA — Spread & Player TotalSpreadMagic -8 (–115)
PropPaolo Banchero U26.5 Points (–125)
Projected Outcome: Defensive rating edge + minutes pattern favor ORL; prop shaded under vs matchups.
Los Angeles Clippers at Utah Jazz
NBA — SpreadMarket & PriceJazz +10.5 (–115)
Projected Outcome: Number inflation vs early-season rotations creates home cover lane.
Bankroll Tracker
163%
Position vs October start.
FAQ
Why does compounding look lower?
It multiplies losses too. A couple of drawdown months drag the product. We mitigate by capping downside, fractional Kelly, and a hybrid cash-out policy.
What’s the 🔥 tag?
Any sport with net wins ≥ 10 for the month gets a hot tag — a quick-read momentum signal.
How do I reach you?
DM @bbbetsinsider on Instagram or email info@brownbagbets.com. Want to support? Join the family.
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