Volume Wins: 41 Plays, 180% Bankroll, One System.

BrownBagBets Daily Card — Monday, October 20, 2025

ALCS Game 7 • MNF doubleheader • NHL & EPL — New week, same discipline.

Updated: 9:30 AM ET Bankroll: 180% NEW WEEK

MTD ledger current through games of 10/19

Today’s Story

Sunday felt familiar in the best way — another day of execution: 13–9–1. That’s not “hot,” that’s the system doing what it was built to do: find prices, size edges, stack receipts. We closed the weekend with 41 total plays — and if that sounds like a lot to follow, here’s the truth: it isn’t hard when you follow the process. We treat every month like an investment cycle. Edges are sized 1–5% of bankroll based on confidence and market stability; there’s no guessing, no chasing, just math. You don’t have to catch every post the second it drops — the bankroll intelligence framework is designed to compound across the whole month so the roll behaves like passive income. Today we wake up at a proud 180%.

Two quick thank-yous to the followers who tipped us this weekend — gestures like that fuel the work and help keep the picks free for the community. Want in? Join the family or contribute. Tonight’s a perfect stage: ALCS Game 7 in Toronto, a MNF twin bill, plus NHL and a single EPL. Let’s keep the receipts rolling.

Yesterday’s Results — 10/19

Grade: 13–9–1 (23 plays)

EPL

Villa +0.5 (–110)WIN1%

Liverpool -1 (–110)LOSS2%

NFL (1)

Rams ML (–165)WIN2%

Bears -4.5 (+100)WIN2%

Saints TTU 21.5 (–140)WIN2%

Judkins O93.5 Rush (–110)WIN1%

Jeudy O35.5 Rec (–110)LOSS2%

Browns -2.5 (–110)WIN3%

Raiders TTU 16.5 (–115)WIN2%

NFL (2)

Vikings +2.5 (–135)LOSS1%

Fields U27.5 Att (–140)WIN2%

Panthers ML (–108)WIN3%

Patriots TTU 25.5 (–165)LOSS1%

Stevenson U62.5 R+R (–123)LOSS2%

Titans +7 (–115)LOSS3%

Skattebo TD (+107)WIN2%

Broncos -7 (–125)LOSS3%

Chargers ML (–130)LOSS4%

Cowboys ML (–125)WIN2%

MLB — ALCS G6

Over 7.5 (–120)WIN3%

Blue Jays ML (–125)WIN3%

NHL

Blackhawks ML (+110)WIN3%

Mammoth -1 (–135)PUSH3%

October Results To-Date (updated thru 10/19)

Overview

BankrollStart 100% → 180%

Record106–82–5(+13–9–1 on 10/19)

180%

Bankroll progress

By Sport

MLB26–15

NFL30–28

NCAAF32–17–3

EPL5–5–1

UCL3–3

La Liga0–3

NHL12–9–1

By Market Type

Spread45–29–5

Moneyline29–20

Totals21–11

Props12–17

Today’s Picks (first post — 9:30 AM ET)

Brentford at West Ham United

EPL — Draw No Bet

Wager 2%

Market & PriceWest Ham DNB (–135)

Projected Outcome: Home shot quality + set-piece edge protect downside.

Model & Metrics

xG trend, rest delta, aerials.

Wagering Logic

2% at –135; avoid if ≥ –150.

Valencia at Alavés

La Liga — Moneyline

Wager 1%

Market & PriceAlavés ML (+130)

Projected Outcome: Home form + field tilt create live dog path.

Model & Metrics

Pressing triggers, shot map, GK form.

Wagering Logic

1% at +130; fine to +120.

Mariners at Blue Jays — ALCS Game 7

MLB — Moneyline

Wager 2%

Market & PriceBlue Jays ML (–120)

Projected Outcome: Starter + pen leverage favor TOR in late innings.

Model & Metrics

Pitch-to-contact fit, platoon edges, bullpen rest.

Wagering Logic

2% to –125; avoid chasing beyond –130.

Mariners at Blue Jays — ALCS Game 7

MLB — Total

Wager 2%

Market & PriceOver 7.5 (–105)

Projected Outcome: Third-time-through penalties + short hooks lift scoring bands.

Model & Metrics

Pen usage profiles, HR/FB baseline, park factor.

Wagering Logic

2% at 7.5; pass at 8 unless even money.

Buccaneers at Lions — MNF

NFL — Props, Side

PropCade Otton O36.5 Rec Yds (–135)1%

PropMayfield O242.5 Pass Yds (–115)2%

PropGoff O259.5 Pass Yds (–125)2%

SideBuccaneers +6 (–105)2%

Game state leans pass volume; number protection through +6 key.

Texans at Seahawks — MNF

NFL — Prop, Total, Moneyline

PropNick Chubb U38.5 Rush Yds (–140)1%

TotalUnder 41.5 (–114)2%

MoneylineSeahawks ML (–165)2%

Pace + pressure compress scoring; SEA matchup tilt at home.

Minnesota at New York Rangers

NHL — Moneyline

Wager 1%

Market & PriceRangers ML (–130)

Projected Outcome: 5v5 chance quality + PP edge favor NYR.

Sabres at Canadiens

NHL — Moneyline

Wager 2%

Market & PriceCanadiens ML (–150)

Projected Outcome: Home crease plus special teams tilt support ML.

Bankroll Tracker

180%

Current position relative to October start.

FAQ

How do I follow high-volume days?

We size edges 1–5% and timestamp adds. You don’t need to catch every post — the system compounds across the month.

Why is transparency so central?

Because it builds trust. Every play is posted, graded, and rolled into the ledger — no hidden picks, no backfill.

How can I support?

Love the free card? Consider a contribution or membership: brownbagbets.com/sign-up.

© BrownBagBets — Play sharp. Protect roll. Win the month.

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