How Data, Not Drama, Shapes Today’s MLB Playoff Bets

BrownBagBets Daily Card — Tuesday, Oct 7, 2025
Posted 9:00 AM ET

Our 5% MLB play kept a 3–5 slate from becoming a real bruise — net damage limited to ~–4% bankroll. That’s the point of Bankroll Intelligence: indicators drive the plays, sizing manages the ride.

We track sport- and league-specific signals daily, measure our bets against CLV, and adjust. Goal isn’t to win the day — it’s to win the month and compound. Today, we look to claw back with more MLB playoff edges.

Yesterday’s Results — Mon, Oct 6
3–5
Chiefs @ Jaguars
Jaguars +3.5 (-110) (4%)
WIN
Chiefs @ Jaguars
Worthy O52.5 Rec (-115) (3%)
LOSS
Chiefs @ Jaguars
Etienne O62.5 Rush (-140) (2%)
LOSS
Chiefs @ Jaguars
Under 46 (-120) (3%)
LOSS
Dodgers @ Phillies
Phillies +1.5 (-150) (2%)
WIN
Dodgers @ Phillies
Phillies ML (+105) (2%)
LOSS
Dodgers @ Phillies
Over 7.5 (-105) (4%)
LOSS
Cubs @ Brewers
Over 7.5 (5%)
WIN
October Results To-Date
Updated thru 10/6
Bankroll
Start 100% → 96%
Record
33–30–1
Streak: L1
By Sport
MLB 11–6
NFL 9–9
NCAAF 9–6
EPL 2–3–1
UCL 3–3
La Liga 0–2
By Market Type
Spread 14–8–1
Moneyline 9–6
Total 7–7
Props 4–7
Results by Wager %
5%: 1–0
4%: 2–4
3%: 11–5
2%: 14–11
1%: 5–10
Today’s Plays
MLB Playoffs
Mariners @ Tigers
4%
Pick: Tigers +1.5 (-155)
Mariners @ Tigers
4%
Pick: Over 7.5 (-105)
Bankroll Tracker
96%
Monthly reset on Oct 1. Current = 96% after results through Oct 6.
FAQ
Process Notes
Why size up to 5% yesterday?
Top-tier plays require stacked indicators: starter form, bullpen leverage, weather/park, and live market entry. That structure kept the day controlled.
What’s CLV and why do you track it?
Closing Line Value tells us if we beat the final market. Over time, positive CLV correlates with ROI — even if individual games vary.
Why two plays in the same MLB game?
We’ll pair a variance control (runline/total) with upside when signals agree — it’s portfolio construction, not duplication.

BrownBagBets — indicators over ego, price over narrative, month over day. Follow the process and let the math compound.

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Please be aware that gambling involves risk and should be considered a form of entertainment. It should not be relied upon as a source of income. Ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek advice if necessary. Participation should be moderate and controlled.

At BrownBagBets, while we provide insights and strategies, we do not guarantee winnings and cannot be held responsible for losses resulting from gambling activities. We encourage all members to gamble responsibly and within their means.

Our Approach to Bankroll Management

We advocate for a strategic approach to betting with our innovative bankroll management techniques. Our aim is to help gamblers make informed decisions and extend their playtime and enjoyment. Remember, the smartest bettors always know when to stop.

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Even Money, Even Sharper: Monday’s MLB & MNF Card