How Data, Not Drama, Shapes Today’s MLB Playoff Bets

BrownBagBets Daily Card — Tuesday, Oct 7, 2025
Posted 9:00 AM ET Updated 3:00 PM ET

NHL Opening Night meets the MLB postseason — different rink, same math. At BrownBagBets, indicators outrun emotion: we size our wagers to the quality of the signal and grade ourselves against CLV, not vibes. That’s how a 3–5 slate yesterday turned into a controlled ~–4% drawdown instead of a freefall.

Over the last two seasons, our NHL process has been one of our most consistent edges. Pace, rest, travel, goalie form, and market timing — it’s the same Bankroll Intelligence you see in baseball, just applied to ice.

We’ll keep the card tight and the logic transparent. Follow along for live updates as the puck drops: BrownBagBets.com/daily-picks.

Yesterday’s Results — Mon, Oct 6
3–5
Chiefs @ Jaguars
Jaguars +3.5 (-110) (4%)
WIN
Chiefs @ Jaguars
Worthy O52.5 Rec (-115) (3%)
LOSS
Chiefs @ Jaguars
Etienne O62.5 Rush (-140) (2%)
LOSS
Chiefs @ Jaguars
Under 46 (-120) (3%)
LOSS
Dodgers @ Phillies
Phillies +1.5 (-150) (2%)
WIN
Dodgers @ Phillies
Phillies ML (+105) (2%)
LOSS
Dodgers @ Phillies
Over 7.5 (-105) (4%)
LOSS
Cubs @ Brewers
Over 7.5 (5%)
WIN
October Results To-Date
Updated thru 10/6
Bankroll
Start 100% → 96%
Record
33–30–1
Streak: L1
By Sport
MLB 11–6
NFL 9–9
NCAAF 9–6
EPL 2–3–1
UCL 3–3
La Liga 0–2
By Market Type
Spread 14–8–1
Moneyline 9–6
Total 7–7
Props 4–7
Results by Wager %
5%: 1–0
4%: 2–4
3%: 11–5
2%: 14–11
1%: 5–10
Today’s Plays
MLB Playoffs + NHL Opening Night
Mariners @ Tigers
4%
Pick: Tigers +1.5 (-155)
Mariners @ Tigers
4%
Pick: Over 7.5 (-105)
Mariners @ Tigers
2%NEW
Pick: Tigers ML (+120)
Why: Correlated with +1.5 position — model edge + price drift gives us an upside slice without overexposing the game.
Blue Jays @ Yankees
2%NEW
Pick: Yankees -1.5 (+135)
Why: Form + pen leverage + park boost make the alt RL viable at plus money.
Blackhawks @ Panthers
3%NEW
Pick: Panthers -1.5 (-110)
Why: Pace/rest and depth differential; goalie edge projects multi-goal win % above market.
Penguins @ Rangers
3%NEW
Pick: Rangers -1.5 (+115)
Why: Special teams tilt + goalie form; home pace bump supports puckline.
Avalanche @ Kings
3%NEW
Pick: Avalanche -1.5 (+220)
Why: Plus-money puckline where our projection clears fair price; top line matchup advantage.
Bankroll Tracker
96%
Monthly reset on Oct 1. Current = 96% (through Oct 6). NHL adds begin tonight.
FAQ
Opening Night Notes
Why add Tigers ML if we already have +1.5?
Portfolio construction: +1.5 manages variance; ML captures ceiling as the market leans our way. Combined exposure remains disciplined.
Why pucklines on Opening Night?
Early-season edges come from pace/goalie form/travel. When our projections clear fair price, puckline yields better ROI than heavy moneylines.
How strong is your NHL track record?
Past two seasons have been among our best by CLV and ROI. Same indicator stack as MLB — different surface, same discipline.

BrownBagBets — indicators over ego, price over narrative, month over day. Skate with the math tonight.

Responsible Gambling Disclaimer

Please be aware that gambling involves risk and should be considered a form of entertainment. It should not be relied upon as a source of income. Ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek advice if necessary. Participation should be moderate and controlled.

At BrownBagBets, while we provide insights and strategies, we do not guarantee winnings and cannot be held responsible for losses resulting from gambling activities. We encourage all members to gamble responsibly and within their means.

Our Approach to Bankroll Management

We advocate for a strategic approach to betting with our innovative bankroll management techniques. Our aim is to help gamblers make informed decisions and extend their playtime and enjoyment. Remember, the smartest bettors always know when to stop.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, help is available. Contact the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.

Previous
Previous

Process Over Panic — How BrownBagBets Wins on Discipline

Next
Next

Even Money, Even Sharper: Monday’s MLB & MNF Card