AutoPilot Sunday: Bankroll at 84% with Sights Set on MNF at Lambeau Field

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BrownBagBets Daily Card
Monday, November 10, 2025 — 10:00 AM ET
Early snapshot — final plays may update by ~5:00 PM ET

Yesterday mattered — the NFL’s Sunday mega-slate is the fulcrum of our month, and we treated it like a balance-sheet day instead of a victory lap. We also swept EPL again (6 straight across the weekend), which tells us the read on form + prices is syncing with the market’s late-fall cadence. We tightened our correlation screens and re-weighted a few indicators, and that small calibration showed up across the board. And yes, friendly jab: our EPL “guru” rage-quit a few weeks back… so we let the autopilot (the algo) fly — and suddenly we’re stacking soccer wins and, as planned, crushing NBA early.

We started Sunday at 77% of the November bankroll and punched out a 12–7 card with our lone 5% max getting home — that’s controlled growth, not hero ball. Volume gets misunderstood as recklessness; in our world it’s how you diversify edge expression across markets and kickoff windows. It smooths variance, harvests CLV more often, earns tier credits, and gives us cleaner signal for tomorrow’s sizing.

We wake up at 84% today, right on schedule to fight for the month — not the moment. MNF: Eagles at Packers is the headline, with a couple of supporting spots we like on the ice and hardwood tonight.

Performance Dashboard — November (Live)

Updated with yesterday’s 12–7 slate
Start: 100%Current: 84%
MTD Record54–54–1
Win Rate50.0%
By Sport
UCL (UEFA)
7–3
EPL
8–2 6-straight
NCAAF
9–13
NFL
15–22–1
NHL
3–5
NBA
6–4
NCAA Basketball
4–4
By Market
Spread
20–20
Moneyline
15–18
Totals
14–5–1
Props
5–11
We manage the month like a P&L. Splits inform sizing; they don’t drive hero bets.

Yesterday’s Results

Audit trail
MatchupPickStakeResult
Bournemouth at Aston Villa EPLVilla ML +1252%WIN
Newcastle at Brentford EPLBrentford +0.5 -1252%WIN
Newcastle at Brentford EPLOver 2.5 -1202%WIN
Falcons at Colts NFL PropKyle Pitts o44.5 rec -1153%LOSS
Ravens at Vikings NFLRavens -3.5 -1154%WIN
Ravens at Vikings NFL TotalUnder 49.5 -1153%LOSS
Patriots at Buccaneers NFL PropTez Johnson o43.5 rec -1153%LOSS
Jaguars at Texans NFL PropNico Collins o5.5 rec +1053%WIN
Browns at Jets NFLJets +2.5 -1103%WIN
Browns at Jets NFL TotalBrowns TT u20.5 -1103%WIN
Saints at Panthers NFLPanthers -4.5 -1153%LOSS
Giants at Bears NFL TotalUnder 47.5 -1203%WIN
Bills at Dolphins NFL PropKincaid o41.5 rec -1354%LOSS
Bills at Dolphins NFLDolphins +9.5 -1082%WIN
Cardinals at Seahawks NFLCardinals +7 -1153%LOSS
Rams at 49ers NFL49ers +6 -1102%LOSS
Lions at Commanders NFL TotalUnder 49.5 -1103%LOSS
Steelers at Chargers NFLChargers -2.5 -1185%WIN
Steelers at Chargers NFL TotalUnder 44.5 -1103%WIN

Today’s Picks

Early slate — monitor for late edges

NFL • Monday Night Football

Eagles at Packers
NFL
Eagles ML +100
4% stake
Moneyline
NFL Prop
DeVonta Smith o4.5 Receptions -120
3% stake
Player Prop

NHL

Skate where the price is
NHL
Oilers -1.5 +140
2% stake
Puckline

NBA

Early-season edges
NBA
Pistons -11.5 -110
3% stake
Spread
NBA Prop
De’Aaron Fox o19.5 Points -120
3% stake
Player Prop
NBA Prop
Mark Williams o24.5 Pts+Rebs -105
3% stake
Combo Prop
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Win the Month, Not the Moment: 77% Bankroll and Today’s NFL Roadmap