What the Indiana–OSU Game Taught Us About Our Own Blind Spots

DECEMBER PERFORMANCE • 21–29 RECORD • 42% WIN RATE • BANKROLL 81%

DAILY BRIEFING — DECEMBER 7, 2025 — 9:30 AM ET

Last night felt like a microcosm of our recent stretch — sharp reads, smart data, and still a slate that didn’t break our way.

Consider the Indiana–Ohio State game. Our data package made something very clear: Indiana had meaningful sharp support. How did we know? Because the OSU moneyline was drifting upward as kickoff approached — a classic marker of confidence on the underdog. The total was moving, the sharp money was consistent, and the under positioned correctly. But the -3.5 side misfired, and in moments like that you see both the insight and the imperfection of this work.

While much of the sports world argues this morning about whether a three-loss Alabama deserves a playoff spot, we’re focused on something far more useful: finding the holes in our process and tightening them. This is the part outsiders misunderstand. They see a cold November, a shaky start to December, and assume the answer is betting less, scaling back, hiding from the board. But that’s not how we’ve won nine months in 2025. Our edge didn’t come from retreating during volatility — it came from studying it, learning from it, and staying aligned with the same system that has proven itself long term.

The record is what it is. The bankroll sits at 81%. But nothing about this stretch changes the discipline or conviction behind the BrownBagBets model. We learn, we adjust, and we move forward — just as we always have.

December Performance Dashboard

Bankroll: 90% → 81%

MTD Record

21–29

Win Rate

42%

Month ROI

–19%

By Sport

• La Liga: 1–1
• NFL: 0–3
• NBA: 3–4
• NHL: 3–8
• NCAAB: 7–7
• NCAAF: 2–5
• EPL: 5–2

By Market

• Spread: 7–14
• Moneyline: 5–9
• Totals: 4–1
• Props: 2–4

By Wager % (Stake Tiers)

• 4% Plays: 1–3
• 3% Plays: 4–4
• 2% Plays: 11–18
• 1% Plays: 3–4

Yesterday’s Results — December 6

Matchup	Pick	Wager	Result
Forest at Everton	Everton ML +120	1%	WIN
Liverpool at Leeds	Leeds +0.5 +105	1%	WIN
#11 BYU vs #4 Texas Tech	Texas Tech -12.5 -110	3%	WIN
Miami (OH) vs WMU	Miami +2 -110	2%	LOSS
#3 Georgia vs #9 Alabama	Alabama +3 -110	2%	LOSS
#2 Indiana at #1 OSU	Ohio State -3.5 -112	4%	LOSS
#2 Indiana at #1 OSU	Under 47.5 -115	3%	WIN
Duke at #17 Virginia	Virginia ML -170	3%	LOSS
#8 Iowa State at #1 Purdue	Purdue -4.5 -115	2%	LOSS
Boise State at Butler	Butler -5.5 -110	3%	LOSS
Ohio State at Northwestern	Northwestern -2.5 -110	2%	LOSS
Avs at Rangers	Rangers ML +145	3%	LOSS
Predators at Hurricanes	Predators +1.5 -135	2%	LOSS
Wild at Canucks	Under 6 -115	3%	PUSH

Today’s Card — December 7

NFL

Bengals at Bills

Tee Higgins o52.5 Rec -120 3%

Steelers at Ravens

Under 43.5 -115 3%

Saints at Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield o30.5 Rush/Pass? (user input ambiguous) 2%

Titans at Browns

Titans TT Under 14.5 -112 2%

Titans at Browns

Browns -3.5 -110 3%

Dolphins at Jets

Dolphins -2.5 -111 2%

Colts at Jaguars

Jaguars +1.5 -110 3%

Commanders at Vikings

Commanders -1.5 -110 2%

Bears at Packers

Bears +7 -110 3%

Broncos at Raiders

RJ Harvey Anytime TD -120 2%

Broncos at Raiders

Broncos -7 -115 2%

Rams at Cardinals

Cardinals TT Over 19.5 -105 2%

Rams at Cardinals

Cardinals +9.5 -105 3%

Texans at Chiefs

Texans +4 -110 3%

NHL

Blue Jackets at Capitals

Capitals -1.5 +125 3%

March Madness Countdown

93 Days

The tournament that shapes our year — and the market where discipline becomes edge.

World Cup 2026 Countdown

183 Days

Key Dates

• Group Draw: November 5, 2025
• Training Camps Open: Late May 2026
• Opening Match: June 11, 2026