Sunday’s Best: BrownBagBets Top Free Bets

BrownBagBets Daily Card — Sunday, October 19, 2025

Full slate posted. Early edges from 8 AM are included; fresh adds are tagged NEW.

Updated: 11:30 AM ET Bankroll: 167%

MTD ledger current through games of 10/18

Today’s Story

Saturday’s 12–5–1 heater didn’t happen by accident — it’s patience, volume, and price discipline working together. We carry a 167% roll into Sunday and now elevate the board with our full 11:30 AM card. The mission stays the same: win the month, size edges 1–5%, and let compounding do the heavy lifting.

Yesterday’s Results — 10/18

Grade: 12–5–1 (18 plays)

Soccer

Chelsea ML (–105)WIN1%

Bournemouth–Palace Under 2.5 (–115)LOSS1%

Sunderland ML (+145)WIN1%

Sevilla ML (–120)LOSS1%

NCAAF (1)

UConn +1.5 (–108)WIN4%

Vanderbilt ML (–120)WIN3%

Washington +5.5 (–130)LOSS4%

Bowling Green ML (–165)LOSS2%

Georgia Tech +3 (–108)WIN2%

NCAAF (2)

Northwestern ML (–150)WIN2%

Ohio -10.5 (–115)WIN4%

Ohio State -25 (–120)WIN4%

Arkansas +7.5 (–112)WIN4%

Texas -12.5 (–115)LOSS4%

UCLA -3 (–105)PUSH4%

Parlay NTX –174 + JMU –135 (+173)WIN2%

NHL

Rangers ML (+100)WIN2%

Jets -1 (–125)WIN2%

October Results To-Date (updated thru 10/18)

Overview

BankrollStart 100% → 167%

Record93–73–4(+12–5–1 on 10/18)

167%

Bankroll progress

By Sport

MLB24–15

NFL20–21

NCAAF32–17–3

EPL4–4–1

UCL3–3

La Liga0–3

NHL11–9

By Market Type

Spread42–25–4

Moneyline24–19

Totals18–10

Props9–15

Today’s Picks (card updated 11:30 AM ET)

Aston Villa at Tottenham

EPL — Spread • from 8 AM

Wager 1%

Market & PriceVilla +0.5 (–110)

Projected Outcome: Form + chance quality keep Villa inside result bands.

Wagering Logic

1% at –110; pass if heavy juice.

Manchester United at Liverpool

EPL — Spread • from 8 AM

Wager 2%

Market & PriceLiverpool -1 (–110)

Projected Outcome: Field tilt + chance volume → cover paths.

Wagering Logic

2% at –110; buy to -1.25 only at + money.

Los Angeles Rams at Jacksonville Jaguars

NFL — Moneyline • from 8 AM

Wager 2%

Market & PriceRams ML (–165)

Projected Outcome: QB efficiency + red-zone finishing favor road ML.

Wagering Logic

2% ML; playable to –170.

New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears

NFL — Side & Team Total • from 8 AM

Wager 2% & 2%

SideBears -4.5 (+100)

Team TotalSaints Under 21.5 (–140)

Projected Outcome: Pace + pressure cap NO scoring; Bears favored script.

Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns

NFL — Sides & Props

NEW

PropQuinshon Judkins O93.5 Rush (–110)1%

PropJerry Jeudy O35.5 Rec (–110)2%

SideBrowns -2.5 (–110)3%

Game script leans CLE pressure + controlled pace; props aligned with role/usage projections.

Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs

NFL — Team Total

NEW

MarketRaiders TT Under 16.5 (–115)2%

Pressure mismatch + red-zone stall rate cap LV scoring bands.

Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings

NFL — Spread

NEW

MarketVikings +2.5 (–135)1%

Number protection through key; buy-low spot on home variance band.

Carolina Panthers at New York Jets

NFL — Side & Prop

NEW

PropJustin Fields U27.5 Att (–140)2%

SidePanthers ML (–108)3%

Run-heavy script expectation + live dog scenario.

New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans

NFL — Side & Props

NEW

Team TotalPatriots TT Under 25.5 (–165)1%

PropR. Stevenson U62.5 Rush+Rec (–123)2%

SideTitans +7 (–115)3%

Defensive profile + pace dynamics support dog + TTU correlation.

New York Giants at Denver Broncos

NFL — Side & TD Prop

NEW

TD PropCam Skattebo TD (+107)2%

SideBroncos -7 (–125)3%

Game script favors DEN control; prop aligned with GL usage.

Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Chargers

NFL — Moneyline

NEW

MarketChargers ML (–130)4%

QB/WR efficiency + pass-rush matchup tilt ML equity.

Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys

NFL — Moneyline

NEW

MarketCowboys ML (–125)2%

Defensive pressure + field-position edge support ML.

Anaheim Ducks at Chicago Blackhawks

NHL — Moneyline

NEW

MarketBlackhawks ML (+110)3%

Home spot + top-six pace vs ANA transition D.

Boston Bruins at Utah Mammoth

NHL — Spread

NEW

MarketMammoth -1 (–135)3%

Even-strength edge + last change → push-protected lane.

Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays — ALCS Game 6

MLB — Total & Moneyline

NEW

TotalOver 7.5 (–120)3%

MoneylineBlue Jays ML (–125)3%

Form + pen usage profiles support TOR at home; run environment tilted slightly up.

Bankroll Tracker

167%

Current position relative to October start.

FAQ

What’s marked NEW?

Anything added since the 8 AM release. We tag adds and keep the whole card timestamped for auditability.

Do these correlate?

Some props lean with our sides/totals, but each stands on its own EV. We size to avoid overexposure.

When is the next update?

We’ll price-check through early windows. If we add/change anything, this block will reflect it with a fresh timestamp.

© BrownBagBets — Play sharp. Protect roll. Win the month.

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Jack Pocorobba