Reprice, Reshape, Recover: Thursday Card with Teeth
March is a portfolio, not a weekend. Every November rep feeds our tournament model—pace, shot quality, and lineup volatility—so this countdown keeps us focused on inputs, not vibes.
November hasn’t been kind, but it isn’t over—not even close.
Last night’s 5–7 clipped us in a few spots, and Buffalo was a double hit—college and NHL both leaned the wrong way.
We finish the day at 53% of the month’s starting bankroll, and we’re not sugarcoating that; it stings.
But calendars matter: 11 betting days is a lot of at-bats when you size with discipline and let indicators lead.
NCAA Basketball, which dragged early, is starting to show real traction; the last few slates have delivered cleaner reads and better closes.
That trend is why you’ll see us lean into high-quality college spots today—measured volume, sharper prices.
Tonight brings an NCAA early start and a TNF card we like for edges across side/total/props.
We miss every shot we don’t take, and our process doesn’t flinch—indicators decide volume; bankroll rules decide size.
That’s how we won September and October, and it’s how we win the year: stack edges, ignore ego, settle up at month-end.
The story isn’t a single night; the story is cumulative cash flow—and that’s still very much in play.
Performance Dashboard — November (Live)
Updated with 11/19 results (5–7)Yesterday’s Results — Nov 19
Audit trail| Matchup | Pick | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami (OH) at Buffalo NCAAF | Buffalo +2.5 -110 | 8% | LOSS |
| Flames at Sabres NHL | Sabres ML -150 | 6% | LOSS |
| Hurricanes at Wild NHL | Wild +1.5 -150 | 5% | WIN |
| Bruins at Ducks NHL | Ducks -1.5 +160 | 4% | LOSS |
| Hornets at Pacers NBA Prop | Bennedict Mathurin Over 20.5 Pts -120 | 4% | WIN |
| Hornets at Pacers NBA | Hornets ML -115 | 4% | LOSS |
| Villanova at La Salle NCAAB | Villanova -11.5 -115 | 4% | WIN |
| LA Tech at Indiana St NCAAB Total | Under 147.5 -110 | 5% | WIN |
| #4 Arizona at #3 UConn NCAAB Total | Over 154.5 -110 | 5% | LOSS |
| FGCU at Samford NCAAB | Samford ML -150 | 6% | LOSS |
| UC Irvine at Utah Valley NCAAB | UC Irvine +3 -110 | 5% | LOSS |
| Kansas City at TCU NCAAB Total | Under 150.5 -110 | 5% | WIN |
Today’s Plays
9:00 AM ET snapshot — more adds likely before kickoff/tipNFL — Thursday Night Football
Buffalo at HoustonBills at Texans — Texans +6 -105
Bills at Texans — Nick Chubb Over 20.5 Rush Yds -115
Bills at Texans — Under 44.5 -120
NCAA Basketball
Early tip spotlightUIC at High Point — High Point -8.5 -115
Tarleton St at Rice — Rice ML -150
NHL
Goaltending & pace anglesCapitals at Canadiens — Canadiens ML -125
Kraken at Blackhawks — Blackhawks +1 -175
Kings at Sharks — Sharks +1.5 -155
NBA
One sideKings at Grizzlies — Grizzlies ML -130
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