Eleven Days, One Plan: Recalibrate and Climb from 64%
We count down because March isn’t a weekend—it’s a portfolio. Every November/December rep fuels our tournament model: opponent-adjusted pace, shot-quality deltas, and lineup volatility. The goal now isn’t perfect days; it’s perfect data.
Last night landed at 5–7, and sitting at 64% isn’t where we want to be.
We got here by pressing into early-season NCAAB signals a touch too fast, under-weighting how preseason priors skew numbers in Week 1–3.
We also paid for a couple of NHL reads that were price-right but variance-heavy—fine in isolation, noisy in clusters.
The fix isn’t motivational; it’s mechanical: higher bar for model agreement, tighter correlation controls, and stricter price floors.
Market-wise, we’re rebalancing toward moneylines where edge comes from injury/rotation context and away from macro totals until pace stabilizes.
In NCAAB we’ll favor veteran rosters and minutes continuity over pure talent composites until sample settles.
Across the card we’ll keep stake bands earned by indicators, not by yesterday’s mood—volume remains a tool, not a coping strategy.
That’s the path from here to month-end: clean entries, accountable sizing, and a portfolio that can grind back over eleven good days.
Performance Dashboard — November (Live)
Updated with 11/18 results (5–7)Yesterday’s Results — Nov 18
Audit trail| Matchup | Pick | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Akron at Bowling Green NCAAF | Bowling Green ML -145 | 3% | LOSS |
| Islanders at Stars NHL | Stars -1 -105 | 3% | LOSS |
| Blue Jackets at Jets NHL | Jets -1 -125 | 3% | WIN |
| Utah Mammoth at Sharks NHL | Sharks +1.5 -190 | 3% | WIN |
| Princeton at Iona NCAAB | Iona ML -160 | 3% | WIN |
| IUI at Charleston Southern NCAAB Total | Under 190.5 -115 | 3% | LOSS |
| #24 Kansas at #5 Duke NCAAB Total | Over 148 -110 | 5% | LOSS |
| UT Martin at Florida State NCAAB | UT Martin +20.5 -115 | 4% | WIN |
| Idaho State at Santa Clara NCAAB | Santa Clara -17 -110 | 4% | LOSS |
| UC Riverside at Cal Baptist NCAAB | UC Riverside +12.5 -110 | 4% | LOSS |
| Jazz at Lakers NBA | Lakers -12 -115 | 4% | WIN |
| Suns at Trail Blazers NBA Prop | Deni Avdija Over 24.5 Pts -115 | 4% | LOSS |
Today’s Plays
10:00 AM ET snapshot — late adds possibleNHL
Two readsFlames at Sabres — Sabres ML -150
Bruins at Ducks — Ducks -1.5 +160
NBA
Side + propHornets at Pacers — Bennedict Mathurin Over 20.5 Pts -120
Hornets at Pacers — Hornets ML -115
NCAA Basketball
Two playsVillanova at La Salle — Villanova -11.5 -115
FGCU at Samford — Samford ML -150
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