Why September Was a Win — and Why October Starts at Zero

October 1, 2025 — The Reset Issue

Today is not a routine slate drop. It’s where BrownBagBets proves what makes us different: we show the framework that built last month’s profit, we account for it in public, and we roll forward with a disciplined bankroll. Picks are the output — process is the product.

Process > Picks Transparent Accounting Value Discipline

Why this post is unique

1

We teach before we tip.

We open with the postseason question we get every year — the +1.5 “lock” — and show how price, not vibes, decides the play.

2

We show the receipts.

You’ll see our YTD and a September breakdown by market type and stake %, so you know where the edge came from.

3

We reset the bankroll.

We debit accounts and take profit off the table, then lock an October unit size that protects downside and compounds edge.

What this means for you

Less noise, more edge. If a number is taxed, we pass. If a market caps upside, we avoid it. If a line is fair, we press our advantage. That’s how we stack months, not chase days.

Next sections: +1.5 Playoff Explainer → YTD & September → October Debit Protocol → Today’s Picks.

Today’s flow

1

FAQ Deep Dive — Is +1.5 a Lock?

The pricing math and framework we’ll use all October.

2

YTD Review & September 2025

Category splits, market types, stake % — the receipts.

3

October Bankroll Reset

Debit profits, lock unit size, and turn the page to today’s card.

FAQ Deep Dive: Is +1.5 a Lock in Playoff Baseball?

Kicking off October by answering the question we get every postseason — and showing how price decides the play.

Pattern

Tighter Games

Better pitching and shorter leashes compress scoring and make +1.5 look like a free square.

Totals

Runs Are Scarce

When totals sit 6.5–7.5, every run is magnified — hence the appeal of taking the hook.

Psychology

Recency Bias

We remember one-run thrillers and forget the random 7–1s that blow up “safe” tickets.

Price Is The Play

Two +1.5s, two outcomes

Play+1.5 at -140

Implied: 58.33%

58.33%

Break-even

~60%+

Our projection (tight)

Edge +1–3%

Small, real

Laying -140 is fine when our cover rate clears break-even (140/(140+100)). That’s insurance with value.

Confidence meter is illustrative.

PassRed Sox +1.5 at -190 vs. Yankees

Implied: 65.52%

65.52%

Break-even

~55–57%

Historic band

Edge -8–10%

Book’s tax

At -190 you must win 65.52% just to break even (190/(190+100)). That’s the illusion of safety — we pass.

Overpriced relative to true probability.

Market Mechanics

Why books shade +1.5

• Demand: Rec bettors flock to +1.5 in playoffs → price inflates.
• Team premiums: Public clubs (Yanks/Dodgers) tax every market, run line included.
• Low totals: Scarce runs increase the hook’s value — and the juice.
• Hold mgmt: Runline margins help books balance parlay exposure.

Our Lens

When we actually bet it

• Price vs. probability: Our projection must clear break-even with cushion.
• Matchup fit: SP form/command, bullpen rest, defense, park, weather point to suppressed scoring.
• Market check: Past ~-160, assume the edge is gone unless model screams.
• Portfolio fit: Avoid stacking “insurance on insurance” that caps upside.

Bottom Line

+1.5 is a tool, not a default

We’ll play the fair -140 in a genuinely tight matchup. We’ll pass the -190 public-taxed sticker. Value > vibes.

September 2025 Operating Review — Bankroll 171%

Oct 1, 2025 • 9:30 AM ET

Bottom line: We won September by sizing edges, not chasing records. We finished 152–139–3 (294 plays, 52.2% win rate) and closed the month at 171% bankroll. MLB carried, La Liga’s beta added controlled upside, and our 4% tier did the heavy lifting.

Final Bankroll

171% (start = 100%)

Record / Win Rate

152–139–3 • 52.2% W

Plays: 294

Workhorse Tier

4% stakes: 27–20–2

Calibrated

What Drove Profit

Mentor Notes

• Indicator stacking > ego: price + matchup + timing, then size accordingly.
• Run-line discipline: take -1.5 at plus money or +1.5 at fair juice only when cover rate clears break-even with cushion.
• Portfolio design: complement core sides with F5/1Q/team totals/props without over-correlation.

Where We Bled (and the Fix)

Adjustments

• Totals: Now require number + price + weather. Any gate fails → pass.
• EPL public prices: Shift toward totals / win-to-nil at fair numbers; avoid taxed MLs.
• CFB key numbers: Buy or pass at 2.5/3/3.5 unless model advantage ≥ 1.0 at price.

Performance Breakdown

After 9/30

By Sport

MLB 64–52–1 ↑
NFL 50–43
NCAAF 22–27–2
EPL 8–12
UCL 4–4
La Liga 4–2 ↑

By Market Type

Spread 62–58–2 ↑
Moneyline 49–30
Total 17–23–1 ↓
Props 23–27

By Wager %

6%: 1–1
5%: 3–3
4%: 27–20–2 ★
3%: 43–34–1
2%: 56–60
1%: 9–12

Variance, Smoothed by Sizing

Why Volume Works

We absorbed cold slates because our biggest dollars sat on our strongest edges. That’s why a month can end at 171% with a near-even record. Yesterday (3–2) proved it: a 4% RL win and a plus-money 2% RL win outweighed a 2% total and a La Liga ML loss.

9/30 ledger: Valencia ML (L 2%), Guardians +1.5 (W 4%), Cubs ML (W 2%), Under 7 (L 2%), Dodgers -1.5 +115 (W 2%).

October Plan — Reset, Not Relax

Protocol

• Reset unit size (debit profit; protect downside, compound new edge).
• Totals triple-gate (number + price + weather) or no bet.
• CFB key-number discipline; no “close enough.”
• La Liga pilot remains 1–2% until sample says scale.
• Run-line math first on +1.5/-1.5 decisions; avoid public-taxed stickers.

BrownBagBets — teach first, tip second. Indicators over ego. We win the month, not the day.

Today’s Card — Wednesday, Oct 1

Updated 1:30 PM ET

PSG at Barcelona 1%

Both Teams to Score – YES + Over 2.5 Goals

-105 Same Game Total/BTTS

PSG at Barcelona 1%NEW

Barcelona ML

-150 Moneyline

PSG at Barcelona 1%NEW

Over 3.5 Goals

-125 Total

Man City at Monaco 1%

Man City ML + Both Teams to Score — YES

+120 Combo

Olympiacos at Arsenal 1%

Arsenal — Win to Nil

-125 Result/CS

Tigers at Guardians 3%

Guardians ML

-130 Moneyline

Tigers at Guardians — Player 2%

Tanner — Over 13.5 Outs

-145 Pitcher Outs

Red Sox at Yankees 3%

Yankees ML

-170 Moneyline

Padres at Cubs 4%NEW

Under 6.5

-115 Total

Padres at Cubs — Player 2%NEW

Dylan Cease — Over 13.5 Outs

-110 Pitcher Outs

Reds at Dodgers 2%NEW

Dodgers -1.5

-130 Run Line

Athletic Club at Dortmund 1%NEW

Dortmund ML

-140 Moneyline

October Betting FAQs

Process & Sizing

Why reset bankroll each month?

We debit profits and lock a new unit size. That protects downside and compounds edge over time.

How do you choose 1% vs 4%?

% stake scales with stacked indicators (price + matchup + timing) and market inefficiency.

Why play volume?

Pros grind ~55%. Volume + sizing smooths variance and also earns loyalty credits as added value.

What changed for totals?

New triple-gate: number + price + weather must align. If any gate fails, we pass.

What about La Liga?

Pilot continues at 1–2% sizing only. We scale up only on sustained edge.