From Setback to Setup: BrownBagBets Loads Saturday Picks

Daily Card – Saturday, September 13, 2025

Bankroll Intelligence

Couldn’t pull off a third straight winner, unfortunately. Just three plays and all landed on the wrong side — not our best night, but also no big damage with measured stakes. We reset at a 182% total bankroll for September and get right back to work on a jam-packed Saturday slate. Process stays the same; volume and price discipline drive the recovery.

Friday’s Results

0–3

Kansas State at Arizona

Kansas State ML -115 (2%)

LOSS

Rangers at Mets

Mets +1.5 -185 (2%)

LOSS

Diamondbacks at Twins

Diamondbacks ML +110 (3%)

LOSS

September Results To-Date

Updated thru 9/12

Bankroll

196% → 182%

Record

58–40–1

Win Streak: L1

By Sport

MLB 35–24–1
NFL 14–10
NCAAF 10–6

By Market Type

Spread 23–12
Moneyline 19–8
Total 6–9–1
Props 10–11

Results by Wager %

5%: 1–1
4%: 8–3
3%: 18–12
2%: 23–22
1%: 2–3

Today’s Plays (Updated 11:45 AM ET)

18 Plays

Nottingham Forest at Arsenal

1%

Pick: Arsenal ML & Over 2.5 +130

Parlayed angle: heavy favorite plus goals vs. defensive profile.

Leeds at Fulham

1%

Pick: Draw +240

Pricing value on a tight expected-goals spread; draw live late.

Sunderland at Crystal Palace

1%

Pick: Palace ML -140

Home edge + set-piece advantage; moneyline protection.

Tottenham at West Ham

2%

Pick: Tottenham ML +110

Form + chance creation tilt Spurs; plus money clears our edge.

Chelsea at Brentford

3%

Pick: Chelsea ML -115

Midfield control + xG trend; fair price closer to -130.

#12 Clemson at Georgia Tech

3%

Pick: Clemson -3 +100

Defensive front mismatch; key number at even money is a buy.

#13 Oklahoma at Temple

3%

Pick: Temple +24 -110

Numbers make it +20.8; catching +24 gets us through 21 & 24.

#4 Oregon at Northwestern

3%

Pick: Oregon -27 -115

Explosive offense vs. thin secondary; cover rate supports -27.

Memphis at Troy

3%

Pick: Memphis -4 -120

QB edge + success rate; number playable to -4.5.

Louisiana at #25 Missouri

2%

Pick: Missouri -26.5 -120

Depth & pace gap; playable through -27 at this price.

#6 Georgia at #15 Tennessee

4%

Pick: Georgia -3 -125

Elite defense + QB floor; key number -3 worth the juice.

Oregon State at #21 Texas Tech

2%

Pick: Over 62 -110

Explosive plays + tempo; our median 64.1.

#18 South Florida at #5 Miami (FL)

3%

Pick: South Florida +17.5 -110

Numbers project within 14–16; hook on 17.5 is valuable.

Liberty at Bowling Green

2%

Pick: Bowling Green ML +160

Live home dog; turnover luck regression favors BGSU.

Arkansas at #17 Mississippi

2%

Pick: Arkansas ML +205

Explosiveness edge vs. leaky run D; plus-money flyer.

Rangers at Mets

4%

Pick: Rangers ML +135

Starter fit + lineup splits; fair closer to +120.

Astros at Braves

4%

Pick: Astros -1.5 +130

Power vs. SP mismatch; RL cover % supports plus-price.

Cardinals at Brewers

4%

Pick: Brewers -1.5 +150

Bullpen leverage + park factor; runline playable to +140.

Bankroll Tracker

182%

Starting bankroll = 100%. Current = 182% as of Sept 13.

FAQ

Community Notes

Why volume?

It smooths variance and compounds edges over time.

What is Bankroll Intelligence?

Signal-driven staking (1–5%) with transparent tracking.

How to follow?

Daily cards here — picks, rationale, and bankroll tracking.

BrownBagBets — disciplined, transparent, community-first betting. Trust the process and enjoy the climb.