Sunday Firepower: NFL, EPL & MLB Picks with 177% Bankroll in Motion

Daily Card – Sunday, September 14, 2025

Bankroll Intelligence

A 7–10–1 day on paper looks like a debacle, but for BrownBagBets it’s just a speed bump. Bankroll Intelligence kept the loss nominal and we wake up at 177% of our September starting stake. We’ve been here before — the portfolio absorbs variance because our stakes scale with the edge, not emotion. Yesterday was heavy, the reads were honest, and our tracking stays transparent in front of the entire community. The point isn’t perfection; it’s compounding. We manage risk so the bad days are survivable and the good days do the heavy lifting. And when the slate turns, our volume approach is already in position. Jam-packed Sunday ahead across NFL, MLB, and EPL — we’ve added more picks late morning. This card is updated as of 12:30 PM ET.

Saturday’s Results

7–10–1

Nottingham Forest at Arsenal

Arsenal ML & Over 2.5 +130 (1%)

WIN

Leeds at Fulham

Draw +240 (1%)

LOSS

Sunderland at Crystal Palace

Palace ML -140 (1%)

LOSS

Tottenham at West Ham

Tottenham ML +110 (2%)

WIN

Chelsea at Brentford

Chelsea ML -115 (3%)

LOSS

#12 Clemson at Georgia Tech

Clemson -3 +100 (3%)

LOSS

#13 Oklahoma at Temple

Temple +24 -110 (3%)

LOSS

#4 Oregon at Northwestern

Oregon -27 -115 (3%)

LOSS

Memphis at Troy

Memphis -4 -120 (3%)

WIN

Louisiana at #25 Missouri

Missouri -26.5 -120 (2%)

WIN

#6 Georgia at #15 Tennessee

Georgia -3 -125 (4%)

PUSH

Oregon State at #21 Texas Tech

Over 62 -110 (2%)

LOSS

#18 South Florida at #5 Miami (FL)

South Florida +17.5 -110 (3%)

LOSS

Liberty at Bowling Green

Bowling Green ML +160 (2%)

WIN

Arkansas at #17 Mississippi

Arkansas ML +205 (2%)

LOSS

Rangers at Mets

Rangers ML +135 (4%)

WIN

Astros at Braves

Astros -1.5 +130 (4%)

WIN

Cardinals at Brewers

Brewers -1.5 +150 (4%)

LOSS

September Results To-Date

Updated thru 9/13

Bankroll

182% → 177%

Record

65–50–2

Win Streak: L2

By Sport

MLB 37–25–1
NFL 14–10
NCAAF 12–12–1
EPL 2–3

By Market Type

Spread 26–17–1
Moneyline 22–12
Total 6–10–1
Props 11–11

Results by Wager %

5%: 1–1
4%: 10–4–1
3%: 19–17
2%: 26–24
1%: 3–5

Today’s Plays (Updated 12:30 PM ET)

25 Plays

Man United at Man City

3%

Pick: City ML -135

Form + xG tilt toward City; price within buy band.

Rams at Titans

2%

Pick: Cam Ward O196.5 Pass Yds -115

Neutral script projects mid-200s; coverage shell allows chunk throws.

Rams at Titans

2%

Pick: Rams Team Total U42.5

Pace + red-zone finish rate cap the ceiling; TT under aligns with game total.

Rams at Titans

2%

Pick: Under 42.5

Two slow tempos + conservative 4th-down profiles keep totals suppressed.

Bills at Jets

2%

Pick: Braelon Allen O18.5 Rush Yds -110

Role + game script create paths to 20+ yards.

Bills at Jets

3%

Pick: Bills -6 -105

Defensive pressure vs. QB volatility; fair closer to -6.5.

Bears at Lions

2%

Pick: Jared Goff O246.5 Pass Yds -105

Clean pocket rates + WR separation drive volume.

Bears at Lions

2%

Pick: David Montgomery O10.5 Rush Att -130

Game script + red-zone role support double-digit totes.

Giants at Cowboys

2%

Pick: Dak Prescott O21.5 Completions -125

Short-area volume vs. zone coverage boosts completion count.

Giants at Cowboys

3%

Pick: Malik Nabers O6.5 Receptions +100

Alpha target share + designed touches at even money.

Giants at Cowboys

3%

Pick: CeeDee Lamb O79.5 Rec Yds -120

Slot leverage + YAC lanes push 80+ outcomes.

Patriots at Dolphins

2%

Pick: Hunter Henry O34.5 Rec Yds -115

TE funnel vs. two-high looks; chain-mover volume.

Jaguars at Bengals

2%

Pick: Trevor Lawrence O21.5 Completions -140

High snap count + shallow aDOT raises completion floor.

Jaguars at Bengals

4%

Pick: Bengals ML -165

QB edge + pass rush wins late; moneyline inside playable band.

Seahawks at Steelers

4%

Pick: Seahawks +3 -105

Hook value vs. low total; pressure vs. protection mismatch.

Seahawks at Steelers

1%

Pick: DK Metcalf Anytime TD +155

Red-zone usage + boundary matchup create TD paths.

Broncos at Colts

4%

Pick: Broncos -1 -110

Defensive success rate + QB floor give small spread value.

Broncos at Colts

2%

Pick: Tyler Warren O42.5 Rec Yds -110

Seam targets + yards-after-catch upside for a mid-40s median.

Panthers at Cardinals

2%

Pick: James Conner O66.5 Rush Yds -120

Workhorse role + favorable box counts drive 18–20 carries.

Panthers at Cardinals

1%

Pick: Marvin Harrison Jr Anytime TD +135

Red-zone targets + contested-catch edge at plus price.

Falcons at Vikings

4%

Pick: Falcons +3.5 -115

Run game vs. light boxes; half-point through 3 matters.

Falcons at Vikings

4%

Pick: Under 44.5

Two slow tempos + conservative 4th-down calls cap scoring.

Astros at Braves

5%

Pick: Astros -1.5 +125

Power vs. SP mismatch; RL cover % supports plus-price.

Royals at Phillies

5%

Pick: Phillies -1.5 +140

Lineup leverage + bullpen edge; playable down to +130.

Bankroll Tracker

177%

Starting bankroll = 100%. Current = 177% as of Sept 14.

FAQ

Community Notes

Why volume?

It smooths variance and compounds edges over time.

What is Bankroll Intelligence?

Signal-driven staking (1–5%) with transparent tracking.

When to check back?

We updated this slate at 12:30 PM ET. Additional adds will be timestamped.

BrownBagBets — disciplined, transparent, community-first betting. Trust the process and enjoy the climb.