Resetting with Edges: Monday Turns to CBB and MNF

Written By Jack Pocorobba

November 3 Reset: When the Data Stings, We Recalibrate

Sunday was a swing — 7–9–1 on the board, 91% on the bankroll. But this isn’t a crisis. It’s a course correction. We don’t chase, we recalibrate. And with College Basketball tipping off tonight — our most historically dominant sport — the timing is perfect. MNF joins the card, and the model is giving us signals across the board. Let’s reset with control.

Yesterday’s Results (7–9–1)
NFL
Chase o92.5 yds -120 / 2%
Bears ML -140 / 2%
Bears TT u27.5 -115 / 2%
Gibbs o71.5 rush -125 / 2%
Vikings u19.5 pts -110 / 3%
Lions -8.5 -110 / 3%
Texans -124 / 2%
Under 40.5 +100 / 3%
Patriots -4 / 2%
Giants TT o23.5 -110 / 3%
Colts ML -165 / 4%
Under 44 -115 / 2%
Chargers -9 -120 / 3%
Seahawks -3 -110 / 3%

EPL
Over 2.5 Goals -175 / 1%
Bournemouth +1.5 -165 / 1%

NHL
Ducks +1 -140 / 3%
Performance Dashboard – November
Bankroll: 100% → 91%
MTD Record: 14–15–1
Win Rate: 48.3%
By Sport: EPL 2–1, NCAAF 5–4, NFL 5–8–1, NHL 1–0, NBA 0–0
By Market: Spread 3–6, ML 5–5, Totals 3–1–1, Props 3–3
Month-End Result Review – 2025

We’ve posted winning months in 7 of 10 completed periods. We celebrate the month, not the moment.

January: 82%
February: 124%
March: 128%
April: 147%
May: 58%
June: 52%
July: 121%
August: 124%
September: 171%
October: 142%
Today’s Picks – November 3
EPL
Everton at Sunderland
Sunderland ML +190 / 2%

NFL
Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys
McBride o6.5 Receptions -155 / 2%
Cardinals TT o24.5 -120 / 4%

NCAAB
South Alabama at Toledo
Toledo ML -150 / 3%
Utah Tech at South Dakota
South Dakota ML -145 / 3%

NHL
Edmonton Oilers at St. Louis Blues
Blues +1 -120 / 3%

NBA
Los Angeles Lakers at Portland Trailblazers
Trailblazers ML -145 / 4%
FAQs

What does the stake % mean?
Each play is sized as a percentage of the total bankroll — this keeps us consistent, not volatile.

Why don’t we talk about units?
Because units are arbitrary. Our edge is tied to % exposure, compounding control, and real-dollar logic.

What do the colors mean?
WIN = green, LOSS = red, PUSH = gray, NEW = blue.

Responsible Gambling Disclaimer

Please be aware that gambling involves risk and should be considered a form of entertainment. It should not be relied upon as a source of income. Ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek advice if necessary. Participation should be moderate and controlled.

At BrownBagBets, while we provide insights and strategies, we do not guarantee winnings and cannot be held responsible for losses resulting from gambling activities. We encourage all members to gamble responsibly and within their means.

Our Approach to Bankroll Management

We advocate for a strategic approach to betting with our innovative bankroll management techniques. Our aim is to help gamblers make informed decisions and extend their playtime and enjoyment. Remember, the smartest bettors always know when to stop.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, help is available. Contact the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.

Jack Pocorobba
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Reset. Educate. Execute.