Monday Reset: Disciplined Blueprint

Daily Briefing
Monday, November 17, 2025 — 10:00 AM ET
Bankroll 62%; steady hands, tight screens, and accountable sizing.

Yesterday was a grind—6–7—and it capped a weekend we wanted more from.

That’s the work now: acknowledge the dip, don’t dramatize it, and put today’s edges to work with the same discipline we use on heater days.

We’re sitting at a 62% bankroll, which doesn’t change our framework; it only sharpens our execution.

Pricing is still a market, not a mirror—our job is to buy misprices, not vibes.

When variance pushes, we counter with breadth and right-sized conviction, not desperation.

Stake bands are earned by indicators, not by how we feel about last night.

Every selection still clears the same internal bar, correlation is tracked in-line, and we keep risk spread across leagues and markets.

That’s how you survive the bumps and compound the better stretches—volume where signals repeat, and restraint where they don’t.

We’ll tighten the early screen, add selectively closer to tip/kick if prices improve, and keep the card honest.

Same promise as always: process over panic, month over moment.

Performance Dashboard — November (Live)

Updated with 11/16 results (6–7)
Start: 100%Current: 62%
MTD Record90–102–2
Win Rate46.9%
By Sport
UCL (UEFA)
7–3
EPL
8–2 6-straight
NCAAF
17–19
NFL
21–31–2
NHL
9–17
NBA
15–12
NCAA Basketball
13–18
By Market
Spread
36–49
Moneyline
29–27
Totals
15–11–1
Props
10–15–1
We manage the month like a P&L. Splits inform sizing; they don’t drive hero bets.

Yesterday’s Results — Nov 16

Audit trail
MatchupPickStakeResult
Buccaneers at Bills NFL PropJosh Allen Anytime TD -1143%WIN
Buccaneers at Bills NFLBills -5.5 -1255%WIN
Chargers at Jaguars NFL TotalJaguars Team Total Under 20.5 -1153%LOSS
Bears at Vikings NFLVikings -2.5 -1107%LOSS
Bengals at Steelers NFLBengals +5.5 -1054%LOSS
Packers at Giants NFL TotalGiants Team Total Under 17.5 -1153%LOSS
Seahawks at Rams NFLSeahawks +3.5 -1154%WIN
49ers at Cardinals NFL PropJacoby Brissett Over 227.5 Pass Yds -1253%WIN
49ers at Cardinals NFLCardinals +3.5 -1054%LOSS
Chiefs at Broncos NFLChiefs -3.5 -1155%LOSS
Lions at Eagles NFLLions +2.5 -1054%LOSS
#1 Houston at #22 Auburn NCAABAuburn +8.5 -1154%WIN
Nets at Wizards NBA PropCJ McCollum Over 16.5 Pts -1154%WIN

Today’s Plays

10:00 AM ET snapshot — adds possible later

NFL

Two reads
NFL
Cowboys at Raiders — Raiders +3.5 -110
4% stake
Spread
NFL Prop
Cowboys at Raiders — George Pickens Over 65.5 Yds -115
4% stake
Prop

NHL

One puck
NHL
Oilers at Sabres — Sabres +1.5 -165
3% stake
Puckline

NCAA Basketball

One moneyline
NCAAB
West Georgia at Tennessee Tech — Tennessee Tech ML -160
3% stake
Moneyline

NBA

Two sides + two props
NBA
Bucks at Cavaliers — Cavs -6 -115
4% stake
Spread
NBA
Knicks at Heat — Heat ML -120
3% stake
Moneyline
NBA Prop
Knicks at Heat — Norman Powell Over 25.5 Pts -125
3% stake
Prop
NBA Prop
Bucks at Cavaliers — Jordan Clarkson Over 15.5 Pts -110
3% stake
Prop
© 2025 BrownBagBets. The Laws e-book lands early 2026; early access: brownbagbets.com/sign-up.
We celebrate the month, not the moment — stack edges, not emotions.

Responsible Gambling Disclaimer

Please be aware that gambling involves risk and should be considered a form of entertainment. It should not be relied upon as a source of income. Ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek advice if necessary. Participation should be moderate and controlled.

At BrownBagBets, while we provide insights and strategies, we do not guarantee winnings and cannot be held responsible for losses resulting from gambling activities. We encourage all members to gamble responsibly and within their means.

Our Approach to Bankroll Management

We advocate for a strategic approach to betting with our innovative bankroll management techniques. Our aim is to help gamblers make informed decisions and extend their playtime and enjoyment. Remember, the smartest bettors always know when to stop.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, help is available. Contact the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.

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11–11 Yesterday, Edges Today: Process > Panic