Monday Reset: Disciplined Blueprint
Yesterday was a grind—6–7—and it capped a weekend we wanted more from.
That’s the work now: acknowledge the dip, don’t dramatize it, and put today’s edges to work with the same discipline we use on heater days.
We’re sitting at a 62% bankroll, which doesn’t change our framework; it only sharpens our execution.
Pricing is still a market, not a mirror—our job is to buy misprices, not vibes.
When variance pushes, we counter with breadth and right-sized conviction, not desperation.
Stake bands are earned by indicators, not by how we feel about last night.
Every selection still clears the same internal bar, correlation is tracked in-line, and we keep risk spread across leagues and markets.
That’s how you survive the bumps and compound the better stretches—volume where signals repeat, and restraint where they don’t.
We’ll tighten the early screen, add selectively closer to tip/kick if prices improve, and keep the card honest.
Same promise as always: process over panic, month over moment.
Performance Dashboard — November (Live)
Updated with 11/16 results (6–7)Yesterday’s Results — Nov 16
Audit trail| Matchup | Pick | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers at Bills NFL Prop | Josh Allen Anytime TD -114 | 3% | WIN |
| Buccaneers at Bills NFL | Bills -5.5 -125 | 5% | WIN |
| Chargers at Jaguars NFL Total | Jaguars Team Total Under 20.5 -115 | 3% | LOSS |
| Bears at Vikings NFL | Vikings -2.5 -110 | 7% | LOSS |
| Bengals at Steelers NFL | Bengals +5.5 -105 | 4% | LOSS |
| Packers at Giants NFL Total | Giants Team Total Under 17.5 -115 | 3% | LOSS |
| Seahawks at Rams NFL | Seahawks +3.5 -115 | 4% | WIN |
| 49ers at Cardinals NFL Prop | Jacoby Brissett Over 227.5 Pass Yds -125 | 3% | WIN |
| 49ers at Cardinals NFL | Cardinals +3.5 -105 | 4% | LOSS |
| Chiefs at Broncos NFL | Chiefs -3.5 -115 | 5% | LOSS |
| Lions at Eagles NFL | Lions +2.5 -105 | 4% | LOSS |
| #1 Houston at #22 Auburn NCAAB | Auburn +8.5 -115 | 4% | WIN |
| Nets at Wizards NBA Prop | CJ McCollum Over 16.5 Pts -115 | 4% | WIN |
Today’s Plays
10:00 AM ET snapshot — adds possible laterNFL
Two readsCowboys at Raiders — Raiders +3.5 -110
Cowboys at Raiders — George Pickens Over 65.5 Yds -115
NHL
One puckOilers at Sabres — Sabres +1.5 -165
NCAA Basketball
One moneylineWest Georgia at Tennessee Tech — Tennessee Tech ML -160
NBA
Two sides + two propsBucks at Cavaliers — Cavs -6 -115
Knicks at Heat — Heat ML -120
Knicks at Heat — Norman Powell Over 25.5 Pts -125
Bucks at Cavaliers — Jordan Clarkson Over 15.5 Pts -110
Responsible Gambling Disclaimer
Please be aware that gambling involves risk and should be considered a form of entertainment. It should not be relied upon as a source of income. Ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek advice if necessary. Participation should be moderate and controlled.
At BrownBagBets, while we provide insights and strategies, we do not guarantee winnings and cannot be held responsible for losses resulting from gambling activities. We encourage all members to gamble responsibly and within their means.
Our Approach to Bankroll Management
We advocate for a strategic approach to betting with our innovative bankroll management techniques. Our aim is to help gamblers make informed decisions and extend their playtime and enjoyment. Remember, the smartest bettors always know when to stop.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, help is available. Contact the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.

