Stability Returns: A Quiet Run of Winning Slates

DECEMBER PERFORMANCE • 45–47 RECORD • 49% WIN RATE • BANKROLL 93%
FINAL UPDATE — FULL 3:30 PM ET CARD NOW LIVE
DAILY BRIEFING — DECEMBER 11, 2025 — 10:00 AM ET
Three straight nights in the green — quiet, measured, disciplined progress.
Last night wasn’t loud, but it didn’t need to be. A 7–5 card is another step in a month that needed stability, and another reminder that December isn’t a sprint toward fireworks — it’s a recalibration month. Every slate we survive and improve sharpens the edges that matter when the volume ramps back up.

The bankroll moves to 93%, and although the road back to even is still long, the past three days have been the exact pattern we trust: controlled exposure, trusted markets, defined edges.

Tonight’s slate is lighter — by design. Not every board requires a full spread of action, and part of getting December right is knowing when restraint is the edge. We play what grades, we pass what doesn’t. Three nights green; now let’s see if we can stretch this run another day.
December Performance Dashboard
Bankroll: 89% → 93%
MTD Record
45–47
Win Rate
49%
Month ROI
–7%
By Sport
• La Liga: 1–1
• NFL: 7–8
• NBA: 4–5
• NHL: 10–11
• NCAAB: 12–10
• NCAAF: 2–5
• EPL: 5–2
• Champions League: 5–5
By Market
• Spread: 13–22
• Moneyline: 9–12
• Totals: 9–5
• Props: 6–4
By Wager %
• 4%: 5–3
• 3%: 12–13
• 2%: 22–26
• 1%: 3–4
Results — December 10
Matchup Pick Wager Result
Ajax at QarabagQarabag ML2%LOSS
Copenhagen at Villarreal+1.52%WIN
Man City at Real MadridMan City ML2%WIN
PSG at Athletic ClubPSG ML3%LOSS
Rangers at BlackhawksUnder 6.53%WIN
Rangers at BlackhawksRangers -1.52%LOSS
Red Wings at FlamesUnder 6.53%LOSS
Panthers at MammothPanthers ML4%WIN
Spurs at LakersLakers -73%LOSS
Spurs at LakersDoncic o32.52%WIN
New Mexico at VCU+9.54%WIN
Idaho State at Utah Valley+10.53%WIN
Today’s Card — Final Update (3:30 PM ET)
NFL
Falcons at Buccaneers
Falcons +5.5 -110 4%
NCAA Basketball
UT-Arlington at UT Rio Grande Valley
Rio Grande Valley ML -135 3%
St. Joseph’s at Syracuse
Syracuse -12.5 -110 4%
Iowa at #4 Iowa State
Under 143.5 -110 3%
NBA
Blazers at Pelicans
Blazers ML -165 3%
Clippers at Rockets
Rockets -9.5 -110 4%
NHL
Lightning at Devils
Devils +1 -170 3%
Stars at Wild
Wild ML +120 2%
Red Wings at Oilers
Oilers -1.5 +130 2%
BrownBagBets Daily FAQ — 5 Things to Know Today
1. Why does December often require lower volume?
Because lines tighten as models stabilize and books sharpen — discipline > aggression this month.

2. Why play alternate markets like +1 in hockey?
Because they reduce volatility in matchups where team form is narrow and scoring is compressed.

3. What makes unders valuable in rivalry games?
Pace drops, possessions shorten, and emotional pressure leads to more cautious scoring environments.

4. Why might props outperform sides in the NBA?
Because rotation data often stabilizes earlier than team-level efficiency — props exploit consistency.

5. Why trust edges even in a negative month?
Because an edge isn’t defined by one week — it’s defined by thousands of trials across all of 2025.
March Madness Countdown
89 Days
The defining event of the BrownBagBets model — where patience becomes profit.
World Cup 2026 Countdown
179 Days
Key Dates
Group Draw: November 5, 2025
• Training Camps Open: Late May 2026
• Opening Match: June 11, 2026

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A Small Friday Card and the Discipline December Demands

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Momentum Returns: What Back-to-Back Green Nights Really Mean