Break-Even Brilliance: How BrownBagBets Turns 3–3 Into 183% Bankroll Power

Break-Even by Design: September Bankroll Holds 183% — CFB & MLB On Deck
Fri • Sept 19, 2025

A 3–3 night — and a perfect example of why we say break-even by design. Most handicappers go 3-for-6 and bleed; we size and sequence so an even card costs nothing and still earns loyalty credits. Bankrolls are steady at 183% for September, the result of volume applied with intent and reviewed with rigor. Today’s board brings a couple of CFB setups and a focused MLB slate. Same process. Same discipline. Let’s go hunt edges.

Thursday’s Results
3–3
Monaco at Club Brugge
Club Brugge +0.5 -145 (2%)
WIN
Man City at Napoli
Napoli +0.5 +115 (2%)
LOSS
Rice at Charlotte
Rice -2 -110 (2%)
WIN
Dolphins at Bills (TNF)
Josh Allen O29.5 Rush Yds -125 (2%)
LOSS
Padres at Mets
Padres ML +115 (4%)
LOSS
Angels at Brewers
Brewers -1.5 +120 (4%)
WIN
September Results To-Date
Updated thru 9/18
Bankroll
Steady at 183%
Record
93–79–2
Streak: Push
By Sport
MLB 44–36–1
NFL 29–24
NCAAF 13–12–1
EPL 3–3
UCL 4–4
By Market Type
Spread 36–26–1
Moneyline 31–18
Total 8–14–1
Props 18–21
Results by Wager %
5%: 2–2
4%: 16–5–1
3%: 25–24–1
2%: 36–30
1%: 3–10
Today’s Plays Updated 3:15 PM ET
8 Plays
Tulsa at Oklahoma State
3%
Pick: Tulsa +11.5 -125
Numbers grab through key 10; model at +9.5.
Iowa at Rutgers
3%NEW
Pick: Over 45.5 -115
Tempo uptick + Finishing Drives; fair 46.8.
Cubs at Reds
3%
Pick: Reds +1.5 -155
Pen leverage + park run profile; RL protection preferred.
Cubs at Reds
3%NEW
Pick: Reds ML -105
Price drift to near-even makes CIN playable straight.
Athletics at Pirates
4%
Pick: Athletics -1.5 +160
SP edge + XBH profile; plus-money runway on RL.
Marlins at Rangers
3%
Pick: Rangers ML -160
Lineup split + home park boost; fair closer to -170.
Guardians at Twins
4%NEW
Pick: Guardians ML -110
Bullpen edge + contact profile vs SP; playable to -115.
Phillies at Diamondbacks
1%NEW
Pick: Bryce Harper HR +380
Barrel rate + park boost; sprinkle tier only.
Bankroll Tracker
183%
Starting bankroll = 100%. Current = 183% as of Sept 19.
FAQ
Community Notes
Why tag “NEW”?
To highlight adds after the morning post. They drop off tomorrow to keep archives clean.
Break-even by design?
Edge-sized staking + diversified markets keep variance manageable.
Staking framework?
1–5% by edge, correlation, and liquidity — the core of Bankroll Intelligence.

BrownBagBets — disciplined, transparent, community-first betting. Trust the process and enjoy the climb.

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From Setbacks to Sweeps: BrownBagBets’ September Bankroll Push to 183%